Latest Presidential Tracking Polls 2008

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Obama Is Ahead in the Electoral Race; 80 to 100 Votes

7/5/08

Candidate NY GA CT RI
Pollster Rass IADV R2000 RIC
Date 6/30 7/2 6/30-7/2 6/18-27
Barack Obama 60% 44% 57% 53%
John McCain 29% 46% 35% 25%
Bob Barr - 4% - -
Details Link Link Link Link

The electoral race continues to stick at around Obama 309 to McCain 229. Other compilation websites have slightly different numbers but come to the same conclusion.

RCP's tally without toss-up states is: Obama 304, McCain 234. EV's tally is Obama 320 to McCain 218.

We each have different methods for determining the winner of a state but because polls are starting to be updated on a more regular basis, each of our methods for estimating the electoral race is drawing closer together.

One state that may change soon is Georgia -- Obama is behind 2% in the Insider Advantage / Poll Position poll. With the large African-American population in Georgia, Obama could easily sneak in and swoop this state from the Republicans but he will need Bob Barr's help to do so.

Georgia has the ninth most electoral votes in the nation (tied with three other states) and a win for Obama would make it a daunting task for McCain.

Permalink.

More Good News For Obama, But a Word of Caution in Louisiana

7/3/08

Candidate LA CT CT MT
Pollster SMOR Qpac Rass Rass
Date 6/26-28 6/26-29 6/30 7/1
John McCain 52% 35% 35% 43%
Barack Obama 36% 56% 52% 48%
Details Link Link Link Link

Aside from being behind in Louisiana, check out the Montana poll by Rasmussen Reports. They have Obama ahead by 5% in a state that George Bush almost had 60%. Wow... And in Connecticut, it is clear that Obama has widened his lead over McCain as compared to previously reported poll results.

We have Montana listed as a "Pro-McCain" state on the left-hand column of our website but we are going to have to seriously take a long hard look at that and report it the right way!

McCain still holds a large lead in Louisiana and Obama has just a 36% favorable rating among white voters. And it is being reported that Obama should not campaign in the state for Mary Landrieu because he would HURT the prospects for her to get elected for the US Senate. Not really sure how accurate that is though but thought I would add that here for completeness.

Permalink.

Wesley Clark - A Bad Choice as Vice President

7/2/08

Speculation is abound that Wesley Clark may be chosen by Barack Obama as his vice presidential running mate... As if choosing Clark gives him some credibility on national security. Tis true that Wesley Clark's service and military credentials make him a very sexy pick for Obama BUT ... does Obama really want to infuse military/terrorism into the dialogue?

MORE >>

Offshore Drilling Polls of Florida Voters

7/2/08

When John McCain reversed his views on supporting offshore drilling... here is what the punditry said to justify their claim that it would hurt McCain in the state:

  • Most Floridians are against offshore drilling (false)
  • Charlie Crist is not even on the same page as McCain and that could cause a rift (Crist has changed his mind)

MORE >>

Two Pollsters Have McCain Leading Florida, PPP Does Not

7/2/08

Candidate FL FL FL
Pollster SV PPP Rass
Date 6/27-29 6/26-29 6/26
John McCain 49% 44% 48%
Barack Obama 41% 46% 41%
Bob Barr 1% - -
Ralph Nader - - -
Details Link Link Link

MORE >>

Third Party Candidates Garnering 9% of the Vote

7/2/08

Candidate CNN Democracy Corps
Pollster CNN DC
Date 6/26-29 6/22-25
Barack Obama 46% 49%
John McCain 43% 45%
Ralph Nader 6% -
Bob Barr 3% -
Details Link Link
Candidate NY GA NC MA
Pollster SUSA SV PPP Rass
Date 6/25-27 6/27-29 6/26-29 6/30
Barack Obama 57% 43% 41% 53%
John McCain 37% 51% 45% 33%
Bob Barr - 3% 5% -
Ralph Nader - - - -
Details Link Link Link Link

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Obama or McCain?

6/26/08

 

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proloyProloy Bhattacharyya
M.S. Engineering; UCLA

david charles terrDavid Terr
Ph.D. Math; Berkeley
joseph hunterJoseph Hunter
High School Intern from Michigan

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