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American Research Group Constantly Under Represents Barack Obama's Support

2/23/08

State Date Poll (HC, BO) Primary Date Results (HC, BO) Offset (HC, BO) Gross Error
Wisconsin 2/17-18 (42, 52) 2/19 (41, 58) -1, 6 7
Virginia 2/10-11 (40, 57) 2/12 (35, 64) -5, 7 12
Tennessee 2/3-4 (59, 37) 2/5 (54, 41) -5, 4 9
South Carolina 1/24-25 (36, 39) 1/26 (27, 55) -9, 16 25
New Hampshire 1/6-7 (31, 40) 1/8 (39, 37) +8, -3 11
Missouri 1/31-2/1 (42, 44) 2/5 (48, 49) +6, 5 1
Maryland 2/10-11 (38, 55) 2/12 (37, 60) -1, 5 6
Illinois 1/30-31 (40, 51) 2/5 (33, 65) -7, 14 21
Delaware 1/31-2/1 (44, 42) 2/5 (43, 53) -1, 11 12
Connecticut 1/30-31 (48, 35) 2/5 (47, 51) -1, 16 17
California 2/3-4 (49, 45) 2/5 (52, 43) +3, -2 5
AVERAGE           11.5

American Research Group is, on average, 11.5 points off the actual results with their polls. A lot of that has to do with the fact that they have continuously under-represented the support that Barack Obama draws. In South Carolina, they predicted that Obama was up by 3 when he won by 28%. In Delaware they predicted a race that was within the margin of error when Obama won by 10 points.

At this point, you should be skeptical of any poll by ARG that shows a close election because Obama most likely is performing a bit better in the polls.

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