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Quinnipiac and AP Polls: Grim Picture for John McCain

10/29/08

State	Pollster	Date	7-Day AVG	Obama	McCain
FL	Qpac	10/22-26	O+3%	47%	45%
FL	AP	10/22-26	O+3%	45%	43%
PA	FM	10/21-26	O+11%	53%	40%
PA	Qpac	10/22-26	O+11%	53%	41%
PA	AP	10/22-26	O+11%	52%	40%
OH	Qpac	10/22-26	O+7%	51%	42%
OH	AP	10/22-26	O+7%	48%	41%
NC	AP	10/22-26	TIE	48%	46%
VA	AP	10/22-26	O+7%	49%	42%
CO	AP	10/22-26	O+8%	50%	41%
NV	AP	10/22-26	O+8%	52%	40%
NH	AP	10/22-26	O+15%	55%	37%
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We have updated a slew of battleground state polls by the AP and Quinnipiac University this morning... The two pollsters both agreed with the results in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Obama is ahead by 2% in Florida, 12% in Pennsylvania, and about 8% in Ohio.

The main problem, however, is the fact that these polls are OLDER (conducted 10/22-26) as compared to the Rasmussen Reports polls we released yesterday.

Franklin & Marshall also had a poll released in Pennsylvania and they, too, had Obama way out in front.

Nothing in these polls really look that good for John McCain. In addition to Florida and Ohio above, he needs to win Virginia but is down 7%. He needs to win Nevada, but he is down 12%. If McCain loses Iowa and New Mexico which seems very likely, Colorado will become a must-win and McCain is down 9% in that state.

The results from Rasmussen Reports and Survey USA polls tend to be more McCain friendly so it may appear as though McCain is catching up whenever those polls are released. So we have to deal with the uncertainty of that. But we also have to deal with the uncertainty of the polling dates in question. For example, Rasmussen had McCain down just 4% in Ohio yesterday and they polled on the 26th. In Pennsylvania, he was down 7% with a polling date of the 27th.

So it is up in the air as to whether or not McCain is gaining in these states or just getting lucky from friendly pollsters. But because the national poll average has gone from 8% to 6% in the past few days, we can estimate (guess) that McCain is likely doing a percentage or two better in the polls released here today.

Doesn't really help McCain much by adding a percentage here and there... Not when he is down by 7-8% in some very major states: Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado.

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