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Attacking Obama is May Be Costing the McCain Campaign

10/17/08

State	Pollster	Date	7-Day AVG	Obama	McCain
FL	R2000	10/13-15	O+3%	49%	45%
FL	SUSA	10/16	O+3%	47%	49%
GA	R2000	10/14-15	M+7%	43%	49%
MO	Rass	10/15	O+4%	52%	46%
ND	R2000	10/14-15	TIE	45%	45%
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Method	Obama	McCain
Latest Poll Per State	307	198
Poll of Polls	339	166
Survey USA	293	245
Rasmussen Reports	329	174
Quinnipiac	269	128
CNN	281	150
American Research Group	316	222
Insider Advantage	229	150
Research 2000	215	157
Strategic Vision	258	128
Public Policy Polling	239	124
Mason Dixon	186	134
Zogby	271	240
Weekly National Average	49.8%	40.0%
Weighted Nat'l Avg	48.3%	44.9%

Research 2000 found that 21% of Florida voters were less likely to vote for McCain because of his attacks on Obama.

Although Survey USA has McCain ahead by 2% in Florida, we've consistently tracked them and found that their results have tended to be skewed towards McCain... likely by the way they perform their polls. This particular Florida poll has McCain getting 22% of the African American vote in Florida, a rather unlikely outcome.

Nevertheless, even Research 2000 seems to have a somewhat close race in Florida... but we have known that for a couple of weeks. Florida is a must-win state for McCain. So is Ohio. McCain can not become the next president without winning Florida and Ohio. And a close race does him no good. He needs to win.

Florida	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Obama	-	37.0	42.3	37.5	41.3	42.2	44.0	43.3	46.1	49.7
McCain	-	44.5	48.0	49.5	46.3	45.7	44.7	46.7	47.3	45.6

According to the General Election Florida poll by Research 2000 for Sun Sentinel:

Twenty-one percent of respondents said GOP attacks of Democrat Barack Obama's relationship to Ayers, a Vietnam activist linked to a group that bombed buildings decades ago, made them less likely to vote for McCain. Another 67 percent said they were unaffected.

According to the General Election Florida poll by Survey USA:

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll 3 weeks ago, almost nothing has changed in the Florida data, at a time when the world has changed profoundly. Then, the Dow Jones was at 11,143. Today: 20% lower.

In 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to August, Obama has never led in Florida. 14 separate research firms are polling in Florida. The last 10 surveys released by other pollsters all show Barack Obama ahead by 1 to 8 percentage points.

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