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How Has Mason Dixon Performed in the Polls?

2/22/08

Here are the results of their latest polls for states that have held primaries (excluding caucus states like Colorado, Iowa).

State Date Results (HC, BO) Primary Date Results (HC, BO) Offset (HC, BO) Gross Error
Arizona 1/30-2/1 (43, 41) 2/5 (51, 42) +8, 1 7
California 1/30-2/1 (45, 36) 2/5 (52, 43) +7, 7 0
Florida 1/21-23 (47, 25, 16) 1/29 (50, 33, 14) +3, 8 5
Georgia 1/30-2/1 (41, 47) 2/5 (31, 67) -10, 20 30
Maryland 2/7-8 (35, 53) 2/12 (37, 60) +2, 7 5
Missouri 1/30-2/1 (47, 41) 2/5 (48, 49) +1, 8 7
New Hampshire 1/2-4 (31, 33, 17) 1/8 (39, 37, 17) +8, 4 4
New Jersey 1/30-2/1 (46, 39) 2/5 (54, 44) +8, 5 3
South Carolina 1/22-23 (30, 38, 19) 1/26 (27, 55, 18) -3, 17 20
Virginia 2/7-8 (37, 53) 2/12 (35, 64) -2, 11 13
Average         +2.2 10.4

They were 20 points off in projecting how Obama would do in Georgia, 17 points off in projecting how he would do in South Carolina, and 11 in Virginia. Generally speaking, the states that had a large African American turnout significantly skewed the results towards Obama. We expect Clinton and Obama to each perform better than the polls suggest as those who claim themselves to be undecided finally settle on a candidate.

If you were to remove South Carolina and Georgia from the sample, they will have under-represented Obama's numbers by an average of 5.4% to Hillary's 4.4% suggesting no bias but the word of caution is to be careful in state's where the African American population is significant.

Note: Mason-Dixon was one of the only pollsters to predict as close a race as they did in New Hampshire while all the others were projecting near double digit victories by Obama.

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