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Not Enough Polls From Insider Advantage

2/28/08

State Date Poll (HC, BO) Primary Date Results (HC, BO) Offset (HC, BO) Gross Error
Alabama 2/4 (43, 45) 2/5 (42, 56) -1, +11 12
Virginia 2/7 (37, 52) 2/12 (35, 64) -2, +12 14
Tennessee 1/30 (59, 26) 2/5 (54, 41) -5, +15 20
South Carolina 1/16 (31, 41) 1/26 (27, 55) -4, +14 18
Georgia 1/30 (36, 52) 2/5 (31, 67) -5, +15 20
AVERAGE         -3.4, 13.4 16.8

Insider Advantage has been wrong in every poll thus far regarding Barack Obama's support. They under-represent his support by an average of 13.4 points in every poll thus far and have overestimated Clinton's support by an average of 3.4 points in each of these polls. To their credit, most pollsters were incorrectly predicting the races in states like Alabama, South Carolina, and Georgia.

Thus far, Rasmussen Reports has been found to be the most accurate of pollsters and even they performed poorly in these five states: Alabama (19%), Virginia (11%), Tennessee (1%), South Carolina (13%), Georgia (30%) which makes for an average error of 14.8%. So we will not make any firm conclusions with respect to results from Insider Advantage because of the lack of data points but we can safely say that they have been wrong in identifying Barack Obama's support in every poll but much of that could also be due to the fact that the dates that they polled were significantly off from the actual primary date (except for Alabama).

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