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John McCain Forced To Play Defense in 13 States

10/21/08

State Pollster Date 7-Day AVG Obama McCain Barr
IL CT 10/16-18
O+24%
56% 32% -
NJ Qpac 10/16-19
O+23%
59% 36% -
NC Civitas 10/18-20
O+4%
48% 45% 1%
IN PPP 10/18-19
O+2%
48% 46% -
OK SUSA 10/18-19
M+24%
35% 59% -
WY SUSA 10/18-19
M+22%
37% 58% -
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John McCain is forced to play defense on states that George Bush won in 2004. And I am going to show you how easy it is going to be for him to be knocked out if he does not do so.

Of the polls we release today... we see John McCain is behind in North Carolina and Indiana -- states that Bush won by double digits in 2004.

But there are way more states that McCain has to play defense in: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Georgia, North Dakota, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, Montana. I am sure I have left off more states but that is the way the map looks for McCain.

The table below shows are the states McCain has to play defense in along with the poll of polls average in that state. Kerry needed 18 more electoral votes to become president. So play a game. Add up any number of states below to get 18 and Obama is our next president.

State #EV Barack Obama John McCain
Florida 27 49.1 46.6
Ohio 20 48.8 46.0
Georgia 15 44.3 50.5
North Carolina 15 49.2 46.5
Virginia 13 51.4 44.4
Indiana 11 48.0 46.0
Missouri 11 49.0 45.7
Colorado 9 50.8 44.3
Iowa 7 54.0 41.0
New Mexico 5 53.5 43.5
Nevada 5 48.7 45.3
Montana 3 45.0 49.0
North Dakota 3 45.0 45.0

Pretty damn easy game if you support Obama. Pretty depressing if you support McCain. And if you support a third party, hope Ventura runs in 2012.

Obviously winning Florida or Ohio would guarantee Obama the election. But he could also pick off ... North Carolina and North Dakota for example, so long the EV adds up to 18 or more. All of this assumes that John McCain will not steal a blue state from Obama. And there has been absolutely no signs of that happening.

I thought Pennsylvania might switch Republican from looking at the primaries and seeing how many people voted for Clinton and said that they refuse to vote for an African American even in the general election... But McCain has been consistently down by double digits since the economic crisis.

 

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