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McCain Still Behind in Florida and Ohio

11/1/08

State	Pollster	Date	7-Day AVG	Obama	McCain
CA	SUSA	10/29-31	O+14%	50%	36%
FL	Datamar	10/29-30	O+3%	47%	47%
FL	Mason	10/29-30	O+3%	49%	47%
FL	ARG	10/29-31	O+3%	50%	46%
PA	ARG	10/29-31	O+8%	51%	45%
OH	OU	10/12-23	O+5%	57%	41%
NJ	Monmouth	10/29-31	O+16%	55%	34%
IN	ARG	10/28-31	M+2%	48%	48%
WA	UW	10/27-31	O+12%	51%	39%
AR	ARG	10/28-31	M+9%	44%	51%
NM	SUSA	10/29-31	O+12%	52%	45%
UT	Deseret	10/24-30	M+25%	32%	57%
NH	UNH	10/29-31	O+12%	52%	41%
SD	Rass	10/30	M+9%	44%	53%
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We are watching the Pennsylvania race closely because it is vital to McCain's chances in winning this election.. but as we do that, Florida and Ohio are still in Obama's camp. The race in Florida is tight but Ohio University has Obama ahead by a whopping 16%. We should caution you that the poll was conducted over a couple of week period when we know Obama was at his peak. In fact, the mid-date of that poll spans so far back in the past that it does not even get included in our weekly polling average of Ohio. Obama is ahead by 5% in the weekly average of polls.

So here is the summary of how the race is for those who are new to checking out the polls.

If McCain loses Pennsylvania, Obama will be guaranteed to reach 252 electoral votes by winning the states that Kerry won in 2004. Then Iowa and New Mexico are firmly in Obama's corner, which would bring Obama's total to 264.

What that does is force McCain to win EVERY other battleground state that has 6 or more electoral votes.

So here is a list of states (with poll of polls average) that

have 6 or more electoral votes
were states that Bush won in 2004
Obama is either leading or within striking distance

State	#EV	Barack Obama	John McCain
Florida	27	47.9	45.8
Ohio	20	50.1	43.6
Georgia	15	45.9	49.6
North Carolina	15	48.8	46.7
Virginia	13	50.9	44.2
Indiana	11	47.1	46.6
Missouri	11	47.3	47.1
Arizona	10	45.8	50.0
Colorado	9	51.1	44.3

This means that McCain will have to win every single one of the states above if he loses Pennsylvania.

McCain is down 2% in Florida.
McCain is down in 6-7% in Ohio.
McCain is down 2% in North Carolina.
McCain is down 7% in Virginia.
McCain is down 7% in Colorado.

Here are our current predictions.

Method	Obama	McCain
Latest Poll Per State	334	174
Poll of Polls	353	160
Survey USA	292	209
Rasmussen Reports	364	174
Quinnipiac	269	128
CNN	301	150
American Research Group	325	191
Insider Advantage	230	161
Research 2000	211	158
Strategic Vision	211	175
Public Policy Polling	267	129
Mason Dixon	230	172
Zogby	324	165
Weighted Nat'l Avg	48.1%	42.8%