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McCain's 4% Gain in Pennsylvania

10/31/08

State	Pollster	Date	7-Day AVG	Obama	McCain	Barr
PA	SV	10/27-29	O+10%	49%	44%	-
MI	EPIC	10/26-28	O+13%	50%	38%	-
MI	SV	10/27-29	O+13%	54%	41%	-
MI	PPP	10/28-30	O+13%	55%	42%	-
NJ	FDU	10/23-29	O+14%	53%	35%	-
NJ	SUSA	10/29-30	O+14%	52%	42%	-
NC	IADV	10/29	O+2%	48%	48%	-
IN	SUSA	10/27-30	M+2%	47%	47%	2%
MO	IADV	10/29	TIE	47%	50%	-
MN	PPP	10/28-30	O+14%	57%	41%	-
OR	PPP	10/28-30	O+15%	57%	42%	-
NM	PPP	10/28-30	O+17%	58%	41%	-
NH	SV	10/27-29	O+14%	50%	41%	-
NH	Concord	10/28-30	O+14%	51%	44%	-
NH	SUSA	10/29-30	O+14%	53%	42%	-
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National Polls:
Marist: Obama 50, McCain 43.
Rasmussen: Obama 51, McCain 47.
Gallup (expanded): Obama 52, McCain 43.
Zogby: Obama 50, McCain 43.
Diageo: Obama 48, McCain 41.
Battleground: Obama 49, McCain 45.
IBD: Obama 48, McCain 44.

AVERAGE: Obama 49.7, McCain 43.7. (Obama +6%).

Strategic Vision's poll of Pennsylvania has McCain down 5%. Practically all of the polls had Obama ahead by double digits last week. But today's Strategic Vision poll kind of matches yesterday's Mason Dixon poll that had McCain down by 4%.

I should caution you, though, that CNN had Obama ahead by 12% in Pennsylvania yesterday. And today's Morning Call tracking poll of Pennsylvania has Obama ahead by 10%. As I said yesterday, I was going to "overlook" the CNN results because the survey dates were from October 23 to 28, including a period in time we already knew Obama was way out in front. We care about the more recent dates.

So averaging the three latest polls by Morning Call, Strategic Vision, and Mason Dixon; McCain is down by just 6.3%. Compare that to the 10% weekly PA deficit and you can see that McCain has gained about 4%. McCain has placed all his eggs in the Pennsylvania basket when he practically dropped out of Michigan, Iowa, and New Mexico.

We have yet to see the impact of the Obama infomercial. It could help Obama but it could also hurt. Remember when Obama went to Europe and he was attacked for parading around the world as if he had already won? That did not go over so well in the polls.

Here is a list of the latest poll of poll averages in states that McCain pretty much needs to either play defense in or win. Can you believe that we have to put states like Arizona, Montana, and North Dakota on this list?

State	#EV	Barack Obama	John McCain
Florida	27	47.8	45.5
Pennsylvania	21	51.8	41.8
Ohio	20	49.7	43.7
Georgia	15	46.0	49.7
North Carolina	15	48.8	46.7
Virginia	13	50.9	44.2
Indiana	11	47.0	46.3
Missouri	11	47.2	47.0
Arizona	10	45.3	50.7
Colorado	9	51.0	44.2
Iowa	7	52.0	39.6
New Mexico	5	58.0	41.0
Nevada	5	50.0	44.1
West Virginia	5	45.0	48.8
Montana	3	44.7	46.0
North Dakota²	3	45.0	45.0