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McCain Has the Momentum in Seven of Nine States

10/27/08

State	Pollster	Date	Mo'	7-Day AVG	Obama	McCain
FL	Zogby	10/23-26	M	O+1%	47%	47%
PA	Temple	10/20-26	M	O+10%	50%	41%
OH	Zogby	10/23-26		O+5%	50%	45%
NC	Zogby	10/23-26	O	O+2%	50%	46%
VA	VCU	10/20-22		O+8%	51%	40%
VA	WPost	10/22-25		O+8%	52%	44%
VA	Zogby	10/23-26		O+8%	52%	45%
VA	SUSA	10/25-26		O+8%	52%	43%
IN	Zogby	10/23-26	M	O+2%	44%	50%
MO	Zogby	10/23-26	O	TIE	48%	46%
MO	SUSA	10/25-26		TIE	48%	48%
AZ	Rass	10/26		M+5%	46%	51%
CT	Hartford	10/18-22		O+25%	56%	31%
IA	Marist	10/23-24	M	O+12%	48%	40%
MS	PR	10/13-23		--	33%	46%
NV	Zogby	10/23-26	M	O+5%	48%	44%
WV	Zogby	10/23-26	M	M+4%	40%	50%
NH	Marist	10/22-23	M	O+10%	47%	43%
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Yesterday, we saw that McCain had the momentum in five of five states... Today, we see that McCain has the momentum in seven of nine states. To test momentum, we just compare today's poll results with the weekly average. And if McCain is doing better, we say that he has the momentum in that state. Of course, there could be polling biases using just one specific poll but across all the polls we can see trends.

The problem, though, is that the momentum McCain has had is still not enough to change the state of the race. McCain is still way behind. Florida and Missouri are still up for grabs but McCain needs to win those states. Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire are still edging towards Obama. While it looks like McCain may be edging out Indiana.

But as we said before, a win in Iowa, New Mexico, and Virginia for Obama would mean that he gets to 277 electoral votes. So McCain not only needs to start winning these battleground states but he needs to flip Virginia back into the Republican column. And it would help his cause if he could flip Pennsylvania too to give him some room for error.

Four Virginia polls are out today all showing that Obama has a clear lead of about 8%. And in Pennsylvania, McCain's deficit is about double digits.

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