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McCain Practically Concedes the Race10/22/08
Yes. You read it here. McCain practically concedes the race. But before I get into a diatribe as to why I am saying this... let me give you some background information. Of the states that McCain is forced to play defense in, he's at the biggest disadvantage in Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico. Those four states have a combined 34 electoral votes... giving Obama 286 electoral votes if we assume that he will win all of the states that Kerry won in 2004. The other 9 states in our table can be considered toss-ups because McCain is within 5% in those states.
Iowa and New Mexico are states that are seriously looking like locks for Obama. That leaves Virginia and Colorado as the two most important states for the McCain campaign. Iowa and New Mexico alone would give Obama 264 electoral votes and then he would need either Virginia or Colorado to push him over the top. But guess what the old man does? He concedes defeat in Colorado. Here is what was I grabbed from the Guardian (UK). The first reports that McCain had given up on Colorado were carried by CNN on Monday. "Gone," one adviser said. Other campaign officials, while denying they had given up on the state, told CNN they were lessening their reliance on a win in Colorado to take the White House. The campaign was also downgrading its chances in Iowa and New Mexico. But with McCain's limited resources against the fundraising juggernaut of the Obama campaign, the Republican has had to make tough decisions on which battlefields to defend. If we are to believe that they are giving up on Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado... then that means Obama is the president. Obama gets to 273 electoral votes with 10 other battlegrounds up for grabs. This assumes that McCain does not grab any blue states... But he already gave up on Michigan. That leaves Pennsylvania as the only potential blue state for him to challenge. He better win that state but that's a tough sell when he is down by 12-14%. If McCain does not fight for Pennsylvania, I have trouble seeing how McCain thinks he will win the election. As a lay person, I feel like he's practically given up and just trying to save face by racking up as many electoral votes as possible. If I was going to lose a presidential election (specifically a historical one), I would want to keep it close to save face, right? But no matter how you slice it.. Where your political leanings fall... Does it not seem fishy to you that the McCain campaign is giving up on the states they need to flip fast? (IA, NM, CO). Or can they just not do math and realize that the electoral votes are not there. I think they know math. And I think they know they are going down. That is what my gut tells me...
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