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Is Minnesota Moving John McCain's Way?10/3/08
Although most every state is moving Barack Obama's way... In Minnesota, Survey USA has seen a 4% movement in John McCain's favor. Their last poll had Obama up by 2% and now they have McCain up by 2%.. Individually, we can only conclude that both polls show a dead heat in the race.. fine.. but it still may be statistically significant to see a 4% absolute movement in the poll. Here is what Survey USA said on that issue "How much of this is movement and how much of this is 'noise' is unclear. " And here is what Survey USA had to say about the individual demographics and how they are acting opposite that of the other states. "Minnesota behaves unlike other states in some respects. Among women, there is movement to McCain, at a time when McCain is losing ground among women elsewhere. Among voters younger than Obama, there movement to McCain, at a time when Obama is consolidating support among young voters elsewhere. Among voters older than McCain, there is movement to Obama, at a time when older voters elsewhere are sticking by McCain." If we were to consider Minnesota as a win for John McCain, then Survey USA would have the election tipped over to John McCain. And they would become the only pollster out there to deem him the winner of the election. Survey USA has conducted recent polls of all the battleground states... but they have been the most McCain friendly pollster. I am sure Survey USA would take offense to my portraying their results that way. Heck, I am sure all of these pollsters would not want their results being reported that way as they all tend to have a buffer called "Toss-Up" states. But that is no fun, is it? Nor does it really do us any good in comparing how all the pollsters are polling this race.
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