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Races Are Tight in Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, and Missouri

11/3/08

State	Pollster	Date	7-Day AVG	Obama	McCain	Barr
FL	Rass	11/2	O+2%	49%	50%	-
FL	SV	10/31-11/2	O+2%	49%	47%	-
PA	SV	10/31-11/2	O+8%	51%	44%	-
OH	Rass	11/2	O+3%	49%	49%	-
OH	SV	10/31-11/2	O+3%	46%	48%	-
GA	SV	10/31-11/2	M+3%	46%	50%	1%
NJ	Rass	11/2	O+15%	57%	42%	-
NC	Rass	11/2	TIE	49%	50%	-
VA	Rass	11/2	O+5%	51%	47%	-
MO	Rass	11/2	TIE	49%	49%	-
WI	SV	10/31-11/2	O+13%	53%	40%	-
CO	Rass	11/2	O+6%	51%	47%	-
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The races may be tight in Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, and Missouri but as far as this election is concerned.. McCain needs to win all of those states. He's behind in Virginia and Colorado, two states he needs to win or else he's toast. McCain can overcome a loss of 22 electoral votes by losing Virginia and Colorado by winning Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes but that would force McCain to win Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Missouri, AND Pennsylvania.

McCain's campaign has been beaten into a corner in every direction and in so many states that McCain was forced to campaign in Arizona today to save from losing his home state.

So much is riding on McCain winning Pennsylvania that when we are watching the election results tomorrow and see Pennsylvania called for Obama, we can start writing McCain's eulogy.

All of the Pennsylvania polls suggest McCain will lose by about 4-8%. But will white working class voters(WWCV) vote against Obama in high enough numbers to put McCain over the top?

Well, we know of one instance where WWCVs had that opportunity and it was during the Democratic primaries.

So let's see how the pollsters fared in calling that race.

Pennsylvania Primary Results
Pollster	Clinton	Obama
Final	55	45
ARG	54	41
IADV	49	42
Mason Dixon	48	43
PPP	46	49
Rasmussen	49	44
Quinnipiac	51	44
Strategic Vision	48	41
Survey USA	50	44
Suffolk	52	42
Zogby	51	41
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By looking at the margin of polls and the election results, we see that 9 of 10 pollsters predicted Obama would fare better than he did in Pennsylvania.

How about Ohio?

Ohio Primary Results
Pollster	Clinton	Obama
Final	53	45
ARG	56	42
Mason Dixon	47	43
PPP	51	42
Rasmussen	50	44
Quinnipiac	49	45
Survey USA	54	44
Suffolk	52	40
Zogby	44	44
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Half the polls suggested Clinton would do better than she did and vice versa. So the results are mixed with respect to Ohio. But as Clinton courted the WWCVs, she seemed to outperform most all polls in Pennsylvania. McCain might too. That is an uncertainty until we hit election day. But Obama supporters can have at least some solace to know that there has been no recent Pennsylvania poll with McCain leading Obama.

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