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Registered Voters Versus Likely Voters: Obama Dichotomy

10/31/08

State	Pollster	Date	7-Day AVG	Obama	McCain	Barr	Nader
NC	Rass	10/29	O+2%	50%	48%	-	-
NC	Civitas	10/27-29	O+2%	47%	46%	3%	-
IN	Rass	10/28-29	M+3%	46%	49%	-	-
IN	R2000	9/29-10/3	M+3%	47%	47%	-	-
WI	SUSA	10/28-29	O+12%	55%	39%	-	-
WI	R2000	10/27-28	O+12%	53%	42%	-	-
KY	Rass	10/29	M+12%	43%	55%	-	-
SC	SUSA	10/28-29	M+10%	44%	52%	-	-
SC	PSRA	10/25-28	M+10%	42%	53%	-	-
IA	SUSA	10/28-29	O+12%	55%	40%	-	-
NV	RGJ	10/25-28	O+7%	50%	45%	-	-
NH	Suffolk	10/27-29	O+17%	52%	38%	1%	1%
MT	Rass	10/29	M+4%	46%	50%	-	-
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The polls just keep coming and we will be releasing another set of polls within the next hour. The most noteworthy of all that will be released is another poll showing a tightening in Pennsylvania.

The only thing from the polls above that jump out at us is South Carolina. It is widely accepted that South Carolina would be a safe state for John McCain but as PSRA points out, the race is a lot closer (6% instead of 11%) when looking at registered voters.

Quote from PSRA:

A new NBC News/Princeton Survey Research Associates International poll shows McCain with an 11-point lead over Obama among likely South Carolina voters, 53%-42%.

Yet that margin is smaller is among registered voters, 50%-44%.

It is clear there is an enthusiasm gap in this presidential gap that favors Barack Obama. But in poll after poll we are clearly seeing that "likely voters" are more likely to favor McCain than the whole group of "registered voters". How is that possible if the enthusiasm is on Obama's side?

As Gallup pointed out, you cannot estimate how likely a voter is by simply asking them. All voters have good intentions and will overwhelmingly state that they are likely to vote even when they are not. So Gallup uses some kind of a formula that, based on past voting history, determines how likely a voter is to vote. Most pollsters would do this. Now all Obama has to do is get out the vote in a way unlike any in our history and his results will not only match the registered voter set but could even exceed that.

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