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Two Pollsters Have McCain Leading Florida, PPP Does Not

7/2/08

Public Policy Polling was a pollster that, during the primaries, had inflated numbers for Obama versus Clinton... So some may put into question their results for the general election.. but you must understand that they are two completely different elections.and the biases towards one candidate (via methodology) may not always translate towards that same candidate in a different election.

Despite the fact that PPP is the lone outlier here today, Quinnipiac had released poll results about two weeks ago that had Obama ahead by 4%. So we have two pollsters claiming Florida is a close race tilted towards Obama and another two pollsters claiming that McCain is way out in front.

As we move forward, a few things are going to happen that will improve the results.

1. We will have a better sense of who will vote as more people register to vote. This should benefit Obama as he is expected to bring more new voters into the fray. But it will also take out some of the guesswork these pollsters have to do with respect to voter turnout, etc.
2. Obama still has some momentum and that should subside in a couple of weeks as we head into the convention.
3. These pollsters will (SHOULD) start including Bob Barr and Ralph Nader into the polls. The pollsters should make an effort to provide legitimacy to the third party candidates but at least have uniformity amongst all the pollsters with respect to the field.
4. VP selections and televised debates should help shrink the undecided population.

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