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John McCain General Election Poll Averages

Candidate List: McCain, Obama, Nader, Barr.

Old Primary Polls: Nov04-Aug05 | Sep05-Jun06 | Jul06-Apr07 | May07-Jan08

Last Updated: 10/15/08

State Averages by Month

State
[min, max]		 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
California
[30, 44]		 39.0 37.0 39.5 43.0 37.6 34.3 34.3 38.0 39.4 39.5
Texas
[42, 57]		 - - 48.0 - 50.7 46.3 46.5 - 54.5 57.0
New York
[26, 48]		 38.7 38.0 38.0 43.3 35.5 33.7 31.5 35.7 39.8 -
Florida
[37, 53]		 - 44.5 48.0 49.5 46.3 45.7 44.7 46.7 47.3 45.3
Illinois
[31, 45]		 37.0 - 31.0 - - 32.0 37.0 38.0 39.5 39.0
Pennsylvania
[36, 49]		 40.0 40.7 45.8 43.0 40.8 39.3 41.3 39.0 43.8 40.5
Ohio
[37, 51]		 50.0 41.8 48.3 45.3 42.8 41.6 43.3 43.8 46.6 45.7
Michigan
[33, 49]		 - 39.0 44.5 - 45.0 39.0 41.3 40.0 43.3 39.0
Georgia
[44, 57]		 - - 54.0 - 53.5 47.5 47.0 50.0 53.1 50.8
New Jersey
[32, 46]		 - 39.5 44.7 37.0 - 36.8 41.0 40.5 41.3 39.7
North Carolina
[38, 58]		 - - 49.0 47.5 48.0 43.2 47.3 46.2 48.8 47.4
Virginia
[39, 52]		 52.0 47.0 49.5 52.0 44.3 44.0 44.0 45.3 47.3 43.8
Massachusetts
[29, 50]		 50.0 46.0 43.7 42.5 - 34.2 - 37.0 39.0 34.0
Indiana
[40, 51]		 - 50.0 50.0 51.0 - 40.0 - 47.0 47.2 49.0
Missouri
[40, 53]		 46.5 43.0 51.3 50.0 47.5 44.0 46.5 49.0 49.1 47.0
Tennessee
[41, 59]		 - 50.0 54.0 58.0 - 46.0 - 53.5 55.0 -
Washington
[35, 47]		 43.0 38.0 41.3 40.0 39.0 37.0 37.4 42.0 44.8 41.5
Arizona
[39, 59]		 - 49.0 51.0 53.0 50.0 44.0 52.0 43.5 57.5 -
Maryland
[30, 41]		 - - 40.0 - - 30.0 - 41.0 38.5 -
Minnesota
[32, 49]		 43.0 39.0 42.5 40.5 38.0 39.2 38.3 41.7 44.6 43.3
Wisconsin
[37, 48]		 46.0 43.0 44.0 43.0 44.5 40.0 39.0 41.0 43.5 42.0
Alabama
[47, 64]		 63.0 58.0 57.7 58.0 60.0 51.0 55.0 47.0 57.3 62.0
Colorado
[38, 48]		 - 39.0 43.5 43.0 42.0 41.0 44.3 43.4 45.5 44.2
Louisiana
[47, 55]		 - - 54.0 - - 49.7 54.0 55.0 52.5 -
Kentucky
[44, 64]		 54.0 61.0 59.0 63.0 57.5 48.5 52.5 55.0 54.8 -
South Carolina
[41, 59]		 - - 48.0 - - 44.5 53.0 - 56.0 55.0
Connecticut
[33, 44]		 - - 35.7 - - 36.8 35.5 - 38.5 -
Iowa
[38, 46]		 38.0 41.0 41.0 41.7 40.0 40.3 38.0 42.0 42.3 41.0
Oklahoma
[42, 66]		 58.0 - 57.0 - - 47.0 56.0 - 63.3 66.0
Oregon
[33, 47]		 47.0 43.5 41.5 42.0 38.0 38.8 37.0 41.0 42.0 41.5
Arkansas
[39, 57]		 - - 47.0 - 57.0 43.5 47.0 - 53.0 -
Kansas
[47, 63]		 53.0 50.0 50.0 54.0 52.0 48.0 52.0 55.0 58.0 54.0
Mississippi
[50, 55]		 - - 54.0 - 52.0 50.0 51.5 54.0 53.0 -
Nebraska
[45, 60]		 - - 45.0 - 50.0 49.0 50.0 - 58.0 -
New Mexico
[33, 50]		 50.0 42.0 43.0 46.0 40.5 36.0 41.0 40.7 44.0 42.8
Nevada
[38, 49]		 - 38.0 41.0 48.0 46.0 42.3 40.0 43.8 47.0 44.8
Utah
[50, 65]		 - - 50.0 - 62.0 54.5 - 62.0 63.7 -
West Virginia
[42, 53]		 - - 53.0 - - 45.0 - - 47.7 45.5
Hawaii
[31, 32]		 - - 31.0 - - - - - 32.0 -
Idaho
[52, 68]		 - - 52.0 - - - 53.0 52.0 68.0 -
Maine
[26, 46]		 - - 39.0 39.0 - 29.5 36.0 36.0 42.3 -
New Hampshire
[36, 51]		 - 36.0 45.0 - 47.7 38.0 42.0 43.5 45.0 42.8
Rhode Island
[25, 39]		 - 30.0 38.0 - - 28.0 - 30.0 36.0 -
Alaska
[40, 68]		 - - - 48.0 50.0 45.0 47.5 40.0 59.3 55.0
Delaware
[37, 43]		 - - 41.0 - - - - - 40.0 41.0
South Dakota
[44, 55]		 - - 47.0 - - - 44.0 - 55.0 -
Montana
[43, 53]		 - - 47.0 48.0 47.0 - 44.0 - 51.3 51.0
North Dakota
[40, 55]		 - - 42.0 - - - 44.0 40.0 53.3 43.0
Vermont
[29, 38]		 - - 29.0 - - - - - 38.0 -
Wyoming
[53, 66]		 - - 54.0 - 53.0 - - 62.0 60.3 -
District of Columbia
[13, 13]		 - - - - - - - - 13.0 -

Miscellaneous Averages

State Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Southern States 63.0 47.7 51.5 53.3 50.7 46.4 48.7 48.2 50.5
Western States 42.7 40.6 42.8 47.6 42.6 41.5 42.3 43.5 46.8
Red States 47.9 44.5 48.6 48.7 47.4 44.3 45.9 45.2 49.1
Blue States 41.8 39.7 41.0 41.9 41.0 36.3 38.1 39.4 42.1
Midwestern States 44.8 42.5 45.5 45.1 44.8 41.0 42.7 43.9 46.0
Northeastern States 41.2 39.3 41.2 41.9 41.8 34.9 38.3 38.1 42.4

National Averages by Month

Clicking on the month will sort the list in ascending-descending order.

Pollster
[min, max]		 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
ABC News
[42, 48]		 - 48.0 42.0 44.0 44.0 45.0 45.0 43.0 43.0
CNN
[42, 48]		 48.0 44.0 46.0 - 45.0 44.5 42.0 44.0 44.0
Cook Political Report
[38, 45]		 - 43.0 41.5 44.0 - 41.5 - - -
Democracy Corps
[40, 48]		 - - - - - 45.0 43.0 - -
Diageo
[39, 50]		 42.0 39.5 - 50.0 - - - 39.5 39.5
Fox News
[37, 46]		 43.0 43.0 44.0 - 46.0 41.0 37.0 39.0 39.0
Gallup
[38, 50]		 50.0 46.0 - - - - - 38.0 38.0
Ipsos
[38, 45]		 - - - - - - - 38.0 38.0
CBS News
[38, 46]		 - 38.0 43.0 42.0 42.5 42.0 39.0 40.3 40.3
Los Angeles Times
[33, 44]		 42.0 44.0 - - 40.0 35.0 - 41.0 41.0
Marist
[43, 43]		 - - - - - - - - -
NBC
[35, 45]		 42.0 - 43.0 - 43.0 41.0 35.0 42.0 42.0
Newsweek
[36, 46]		 - - 45.0 44.0 46.0 36.0 41.0 - -
Pew Research
[40, 45]		 - - - - - 42.5 42.0 43.0 43.0
Quinnipiac
[40, 45]		 - - - - 40.0 - 41.0 42.0 42.0
Rasmussen Reports
[41, 47]		 44.7 - - 46.0 - - - - -
Time Magazine
[41, 43]		 - - - - - - - 41.0 41.0
USA Today
[40, 49]		 - - 47.0 44.0 48.0 42.0 49.0 43.0 43.0
Zogby
[40, 48]		 45.0 40.0 48.0 45.0 40.0 42.0 40.0 42.0 42.0
Misc Pollsters
[41, 41]		 - - - - - - - - -

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Predicted Electoral Math

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Odds of Winning

tab Obama -230, McCain +160

Senate Races 2008

AL: Sessions vs Figures
AK: Stevens vs Begich
CO: Schaffer vs Udall
DE: O'Donnell vs Biden
GA: Chambliss vs Martin
IA: Reed vs Harkin
ID: Risch vs Larocco
IL: Sauerberg vs Durbin
KS: Roberts vs Slattery
KY: McConnell vs Lunsford
LA: Kennedy vs Landrieu
MA: Beatty vs Kerry
MI: Hoogendyk vs Levin
ME: Collins vs Allen
MN: Coleman vs Franken
MS: Cochran vs Fleming
MS: Wicker vs Musgrove
MT: Kelleher vs Baucus
NC: Dole vs Hagan
NE: Johanns vs Kleeb
NH: Sununu vs Shaheen
NJ: Zimmer vs Lautenberg
NM: Pearce vs Udall
OK: Inhofe vs Rice
OR: Smith vs Merkley
RI: Tingle vs Reed
SC: Graham vs Conley
SD: Dykstra vs Johnson
TN: Alexander vs Tuke
TX: Cornyn vs Noriega

VA: Gilmore vs Warner

WV: Wolfe vs Rockefeller
WY: Enzi vs Rothfuss
WY: Barasso vs Carter

Polls We Have Conducted...

tab CA: Bush, Congress, Arnold
tab CA: Issues
tab CA: Prop 98 & 99
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tab CA: General Election

Useful History

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M.S. Engineering; UCLA

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Ph.D. Math; Berkeley
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High School Intern from Michigan

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City Demographics: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming.

One of the biggest perturbations of Random Digit Dialing polling (RDD) is the accidental calling of business phone numbers. So we track these numbers and report to you the prefixes within each area code most likely to be reserved for business use.

Business Listings By Area Code: 201, 202, 203, 205, 206, 207, 208, 209, 210, 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218, 219, 225, 228, 229, 239, 240, 248, 250, 251, 252, 253, 256, 260, 262, 267, 269, 270, 281, 283, 301, 302, 303, 304, 305, 307, 309, 310, 312, 313, 314, 315, 316, 317, 318, 319, 320, 321, 323, 325, 330, 334, 336, 337, 347, 352, 353, 360, 361, 386, 401, 402, 404, 405, 406, 407, 408, 409, 410, 412, 413, 414, 415, 417, 419, 423, 425, 432, 434, 435, 440, 443, 469, 478, 479, 480, 484, 501, 502, 503, 504, 505, 507, 508, 509, 510, 512, 513, 515, 516, 517, 518, 520, 530, 540, 541, 559, 561, 562, 563, 570, 571, 573, 574, 580, 585, 586, 601, 602, 603, 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610, 612, 614, 615, 616, 617, 619, 623, 626, 630, 631, 636, 641, 646, 650, 651, 660, 661, 662, 678, 682, 701, 702, 703, 704, 706, 707, 708, 712, 713, 714, 715, 716, 717, 718, 719, 720, 724, 727, 731, 732, 734, 740, 757, 760, 763, 765, 770, 773, 774, 775, 781, 785, 786, 787, 800, 801, 802, 803, 804, 805, 806, 808, 810, 812, 813, 814, 815, 816, 817, 818, 830, 831, 832, 843, 845, 847, 850, 856, 857, 858, 859, 860, 863, 864, 865, 866, 870, 877, 888, 901, 903, 904, 906, 907, 908, 909, 910, 912, 913, 914, 915, 916, 917, 918, 919, 920, 925, 928, 931, 936, 937, 940, 941, 949, 951, 952, 954, 956, 970, 971, 972, 973, 978, 979, 980, 985, 989.

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