Latest Presidential Tracking Polls 2008

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Democrat Polls

The Field Poll
Date: 1/25-2/1
California
Added: 2/3/08
Est. MoE = 4.2% [?]

Quote:

Registered Democrats, who the poll finds are accounting for 87% of those likely to vote in the Democratic primary, favor Clinton by six points, 37% to 31%. However, non-partisans who represent another 13% of likely Democratic primary voters now favor Obama by a five to three margin (54% to 32%).

Obama holds the lead among younger voters under age 30 (42% to 31%). Voters age 30-49 and those 50-64 are closely divided. Clinton, however, is favored by seniors age 65 and over by a greater than two to one margin (40% to 18%).

There is strong support for Obama among liberals (42% to 31%), while the less numerous conservatives are solidly behind Clinton (43% to 23%). Clinton has a small edge among moderate or middle-of-the-road voters (39% to 33%).

McClatchy/MSNBC / Mason Dixon
Date: 1/30-2/1
California
Added: 2/3/08
Est. MoE = 4.9% [?]

Quote:

Here they split the white vote. He leads better than 4-1 among blacks, and she leads 4-1 among Hispanics. There are more Hispanics than blacks, so she has the edge.

"He'll get some Chablis-sipping liberals up north, and blacks down south,' Coker said. "Her trump card is the Hispanic vote."

Wildcard: California had the highest number of undecided voters � 16 percent � of any state.

The Field Poll
Date: 1/14-20
California
Added: 1/24/08
Est. MoE = 4.9% [?]

Quote:

Clinton voters are much more likely to consider jobs/the economy as being the most important issue to them when deciding whom to support for President. By contrast, Obama supporters are more likely to view the war in Iraq and foreign policy as their top concerns.

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 1/29
California
Added: 1/31/08
Est. MoE = 3.4% [?]

Quote:

Obama had a narrow 43% to 41% advantage among the party�s liberal voters while Clinton held a 45% to 35% edge among moderate voters.

Obama held a three-point lead among white voters in the state while Clinton had a twenty-seven point lead among Hispanic voters.

Clinton trailed by eight points among men but led by ten among women.

Obama is viewed favorably by 83% of California�s Democratic Primary Voters, Clinton by 79%.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of the state�s voters were certain they had settled on their final choice. That meant nearly a third could still change their mind, a figure that grew when Edwards left the race.

Forty-six percent (46%) said the top voting issue is the economy while 29% mentioned the War in Iraq. Clinton led by fifteen among those who view the economy as the highest priority. Obama led by eight among those who view the War as the top voting issue.

Survey USA
Date: 1/27
California
Added: 1/30/08
Est. MoE = 3.3% [?]

Quote:

Compared to SurveyUSA's most recent CA poll released two weeks ago, before Obama's South Carolina win, Hillary Clinton is down 1 point, Obama is up 3 points, and John Edwards, who finishes today at 9%, is down 1 point. In October, Clinton led Obama by 37 points; today, it's 11 points. Obama today leads among men by 11 points; Clinton leads among women by 30 points -- a 41-point Gender Gap. Clinton today takes 43% of the white vote; Obama takes 41, a virtual tie, and significant in that Clinton led among white voters by 25 points at the beginning of December.

Politico/CNN/Los Angeles Times
Date: 1/23-27
California
Added: 1/28/08
Est. MoE = 3.7% [?]

Quote:

Among California Democratic primary voters, the poll found, Clinton rates best by wide margins at being able to handle the economy, health care and the situation in Iraq.

Even on Obama�s signature line � calling for �change� in the way things are done in Washington � the Illinois senator beats Clinton only 40-39 percent.

USA Today/Gallup Poll
Date: 1/23-26
California
Added: 1/28/08
Est. MoE = 3.5% [?]

Quote:

Clinton leads Barack Obama by 12 points to 18 points, depending on turnout assumptions. John Edwards languishes much further behind.

About a fifth to a quarter of Democratic voters say they may still change their minds about their vote choice. Among those who claim to be certain of their choice at this time, Clinton still wins, but by a diminished margin.

The most important factor that could change the voting intentions of California Democrats may be the results of Saturday's South Carolina primary, which became known after interviewing for this survey had been completed. Obama's substantial win in that state, and the publicity surrounding it, could well have an effect on California Democrats, with the most obvious possibility being that Obama would gain.

Additionally, of course, the candidates will be campaigning in California in the days leading up to the Feb. 5 vote, and that could affect the final outcome.

Public Policy Institute of California Statewide Survey
Date: 1/13-20
California
Added: 1/26/08
Est. MoE = 4.2% [?]

Quote:

Among likely voters in the Democratic primary�which includes registered Democrats and independent (�decline-to-state�) voters who say they will vote in the Democratic primary�Senator Hillary Clinton still leads Senator Barack Obama (43% to 28%). However, her 24-point lead in December has now shrunk to 15 points. Former Senator John Edwards remains in third place at 11 percent. Seven percent say they would vote for another candidate, and 11 percent are still undecided. Clinton holds the lead in the Democratic primary among both liberals (41%) and those who do not consider themselves to be liberals (45%) and among both women (48%) and men (35%). Women outnumber men among California�s Democratic voters, and thus women�s preferences play an important role in this primary race. Among Latinos, Clinton holds a three-to-one edge over Obama (60% to 21%). Among independents who are planning to vote the Democratic ballet, Clinton and Obama are tied (32% to 32%).

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 1/14
California
Added: 1/18/08
Est. MoE = 3.2% [?]

Quote:

Obama is viewed favorably by 80% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters, Clinton by 78%, and Edwards by 68%.

Eighty percent (80%) believe Obama would be at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Seventy-eight percent (78%) say the same about Clinton.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of Clinton�s supporters are �certain� they will vote for her and 65% of Obama voters say the same about their candidate. Just 50% of Edwards fans are that �certain� of their support.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of California�s Democratic Primary voters consider the economy to be a Very Important voting issue. Seventy-six percent (76%) say the same about Health Care. Government ethics and corruption is considered Very Important by 68% while the War in Iraq is that important to 62%.

Survey USA
Date: 1/11-13
California
Added: 1/15/08
Est. MoE = 3.4% [?]

Quote:

Compared to SurveyUSA's most recent CA poll released one month ago, before Iowa and New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton is up 1 point, Obama is up 5 points, and John Edwards, who finishes today at 10%, is down 4 points. In October, Clinton led Obama by 37 points. Obama has gained material ground since then, but Clinton has not lost as much ground, so the advantage remains hers. Obama today leads among men by 9 points; Clinton leads among women by 33 points -- a 42-point Gender Gap. In greater Los Angeles, Clinton leads by 14. In greater San Francisco, Clinton leads by 6.

Politico, LA Times ,CNN poll
Date: 1/11-13
California
Added: 1/15/08
Est. MoE = 5.0% [?]

Quote:

Change appears to be the most pressing demand for Democratic voters in California. Forty-seven percent of likely Democratic primary voters say change is a priority, with 31 percent favoring experience. Asked which Democrat is most likely to bring about change, they say Obama, by a 6-point margin.

"So why are they voting for Clinton? Because they think she can win. By 48 to 33 percent, they pick Clinton over Obama as the candidate with the best chance of beating the Republican in November. Obama's got the goods Democrats want. But Hillary closes the sale on electability," said CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider.

Republican Polls

The Field Poll
Date: 1/25-2/1
California
Est. MoE = 4.2% [?]

Quote:

McCain holds significant leads across most other Republican sub-groups. One exception is among born-again Christians, where McCain is in a virtual tie with Huckabee (McCain 28% vs. 26% for Huckabee). Romney is running a close third among this segment, with 21% of the vote.

McCain also has a somewhat larger lead among younger voters age 18-49 (9 points) and voters age 50-64 (10 points). Among Republicans age 65 or older, McCain's lead narrows to three points. There are no differences in preferences by gender.

McCain's lead is smaller (6 points) among the very large majority of Republicans (82%) who are white non-Hispanic than among the small proportion of ethnic voters (13 points).

The Arizona Senator's lead is nine points among voters living in California's coastal counties, but just five points than among inland voters. He also holds a larger lead in Northern California (12 points) than in Southern California (6 points).

McClatchy/MSNBC / Mason Dixon
Date: 1/30-2/1
California
Est. MoE = 4.8% [?]

Quote:

McCain is strongest in Northern California, the more moderate to liberal part of the state, but he also leads in central California.

He has an edge among economy voters and leads solidly among national security voters. He also leads among evangelical voters.

Romney's strongest in southern California, where he splits support with McCain. "There's still some old-time conservatives in Orange County," said Coker. "Romney may not do too bad there. He will win some Congressional districts."

The Field Poll
Date: 1/14-20
California
Est. MoE = 4.2% [?]

Quote:

While McCain and Romney draw about equally from GOP voters with household incomes of $80,000 or more, the Arizona Senator has an edge over Romney and Huckabee among those who make less than $80,000.

McCain also holds an advantage among voters age 50 and older, while younger voters are about evenly split between himself and Romney.

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 1/29
California
Est. MoE = 3.6% [?]

Quote:

Sixty-five percent (65%) of Giuliani voters had a favorable opinion of Romney while 53% said the same about McCain. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Giuliani�s voters believe McCain would be at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Sixty-one percent (61%) are that confident about Romney�s electability.

As of Tuesday night, the race was very fluid�just 57% of voters were �certain� they had settled on their final choice. Fifteen percent (15%) said there was a good chance they could change their mind.

Two weeks ago�weeks in which the Republican race completely changed�McCain led Romney by seven points in California.

Romney narrowly leads McCain among conservatives 37% to 26%. McCain attracts 53% of moderates. Giuliani picked up 15% of the moderate vote while Romney earned 11%.

In California, 35% of Republican Primary Voters named the economy as the top voting issue. Immigration is the top priority for 25% followed by the War in Iraq (16%) and National Security (12%).

As he did in Florida, McCain leads Romney slightly among voters who name the economy as the highest priority. McCain also leads among those who see Iraq and National Security as their top voting issue. However, Romney leads by a two-to-one margin among voters focused on immigration.

Survey USA
Date: 1/27
California
Est. MoE = 4.2% [?]

Quote:

Rudolph Giuliani, who led in California's Republican Primary by 20 points in August and by 21 points in October, now finds himself leading only Ron Paul. Giuliani today loses 3:1 to McCain, and 2:1 to Romney. Today it's McCain 37%; Romney 25%; Mike Huckabee 14%; Giuliani 12%; Paul 4%. Since SurveyUSA's last poll, released two weeks ago, McCain is up 4 points; Romney is up 12. Romney leads by 4 among Conservatives; McCain leads by 28 among Moderates. One-third of likely Republican primary voters say the economy is the issue the next president should focus on ahead of all others; McCain leads by 11 among those voters. 22% of voters say immigration is the most important issue; Romney leads by 8 among them.

Politico/CNN/Los Angeles Times
Date: 1/23-27
California
Est. MoE = 4.6% [?]

Quote:

Support for McCain appears to be firming up, with only 4 percent of likely GOP primary voters undecided, compared to 11 percent in the last survey.

And 57 percent said they were certain in their pick, while 43 percent said they could back another candidate.

McCain, too, is perceived by his party�s faithful in California at being the best equipped by far to tackle illegal immigration, fight terrorism and protect national security, and handle the situation in Iraq.

USA Today/Gallup Poll
Date: 1/23-26
California
Est. MoE = 3.4% [?]

Quote:

The results make it clear that two candidates -- McCain and Romney -- are the dominant players at this point in California. McCain has a slight lead over Romney, but one that appears smaller among those most likely to vote in a lower-turnout election.

Rudy Giuliani, who had been leading in California polls as recently as last December, is far behind the two front-runners and essentially tied with Mike Huckabee. Ron Paul trails even further behind.

About a third of registered Republican voters in California said they could change their minds about voting between the time they were interviewed and the day of the primary, suggesting that the structure of this primary election could change significantly in the days ahead.

Of those who are certain about their vote, McCain and Romney are tied, further underscoring the conclusion that the California race could in the end tilt toward either of these two candidates.

Public Policy Institute of California Statewide Survey
Date: 1/13-20
California
Est. MoE = 4.8% [?]

Quote:

Since December, McCain has gained 18 points among Republican primary likely voters (11% to 29%), while preference for Romney has remained about the same (15% to 17%) and Giuliani�s support has dropped by 14 points (24% to 10%). McCain is currently the favored candidate among both women (31%) and men (28%). While McCain (22%) and Romney (19%) are about equally preferred among conservative Republicans, nonconservative likely voters in the upcoming primary prefer McCain over Romney by a wide margin (42% to 14%). Among those who are self-identifying evangelical Christians, 23 percent prefer McCain, 17 percent Huckabee, and 15 percent Romney.

The frontrunner status of McCain among California Republicans is similar to his position among Republicans nationwide, according to the CNN/Opinion Research poll (29% McCain, 20% Huckabee, 19% Romney, 14% Giuiliani).

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 1/14
California
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]

Quote:

Sixty-three percent (63%) of Romney�s supporters are certain they will vote for him. That�s a far higher level of commitment than any other candidate enjoys. Just 45% of McCain�s supporters are that �certain� along with 54% of those who support Thompson, 45% of Huckabee voters, and 36% of Giuliani fans.

Eleven percent (11%) of Romney supporters say there�s a good chance they could change their mind. Fifteen percent (15%) of Thompson�s supporters are that likely to switch. The numbers are even higher for other candidates�21% for McCain, 22% for Huckabee, and 22% for Giuliani.

McCain is seen as the most electable Republican, a fact that explains his frontrunner status and the current lack of commitment from his voters. Sixty-six percent (66%) say that he is at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) believe Giuliani would have a chance to win as the Republican nominee.

Fifty-five percent (55%) see Romney as at least somewhat likely to win while just 41% say the same about both Huckabee and Thompson.

Survey USA
Date: 1/11-13
California
Est. MoE = 4.1% [?]

Quote:

Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, before Iowa and New Hampshire, McCain is up 19 points, from 14% on 12/17/07 to 33% today. Giuliani is down 10 points, from 28% to 18%. California is central to Giuliani's 'Big State' strategy, which kept him out of early caucuses and primaries, to allow him to concentrate on Florida on 01/29/08 and the delegate rich states such as California which vote on 02/05/08. SurveyUSA polling now shows Giuliani behind McCain in Florida, just 3 points ahead of McCain in Giuliani's home state of New York, and now down by double digits in CA. Mike Huckabee runs 3rd at 14%, Mitt Romney 4th at 13%, with Fred Thompson and Ron Paul further back. Among Moderate Republicans, Giuliani has fallen 27 points, from 46% in August to 19% today. McCain has gained 29 points among Moderates during that period, from 13% in August to 42% today.

Politico, LA Times ,CNN poll
Date: 1/11-13
California
Est. MoE = 4.9% [?]

Quote:

The poll suggests the race for the GOP presidential nomination is up for grabs, with 20 percent of likely Republican primary voters in California supporting Sen. John McCain of Arizona as their nominee and 16 percent backing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani was at 14 percent, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 13 percent.

Taking into account the poll's sampling error of plus-or-minus 6 percentage points among the Republicans, the race is a statistical dead heat. There are 170 Republican delegates at stake in California.

Rep. Ron Paul of Texas is in fifth place in the survey, at 8 percent, with former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee at 6 percent and Rep. Duncan Hunter of California at less than 0.5 percent.

On the Republican side, a plurality of voters said McCain has the best chance of beating the Democratic presidential nominee.

This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 California polls.

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