Latest Presidential Tracking Polls 2008
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Democrat Polls
Survey USA Poll
Date: 2/17/08
California
Added: 2/17/08
Quote: Obama enjoys overwhelming support from Democrats (81%) and McCain enjoys similarly high levels of support from Republicans (77%). Independents favor Obama (48%) over McCain (33%) and 16 percent are undecided. However, since July, Obama�s share of the independent vote has dropped 9 points, while McCain�s share has increased 12 points. Among likely voters, women prefer Obama to McCain, and men remain divided. Among Latino likely voters, Obama enjoys overwhelming support, while whites prefer McCain. Likely voters under age 35 strongly favor Obama over McCain (65% to 21%), while support among likely voters age 55 and older is divided (43% Obama, 45% McCain). Among likely voters who say the economy is the top issue they want to hear candidates talk about, half favor Obama (53% Obama, 31% McCain). Just 48 percent of likely voters say they are satisfied with their choice of presidential candidates, and 49 percent say they are not satisfied. Satisfaction with the choice of presidential candidate is much lower than was satisfaction with the choice of presidential primary candidates in January (64% satisfied, 31% not satisfied). Across parties today, two in three Democrats (68%) say they are satisfied with their presidential candidate choices, while just 40 percent of independents and 35 percent of Republicans report the same level of satisfaction. In January, both Democrats (77%) and Republicans (52%) were more likely to report satisfaction with their presidential primary candidate choices.END 8/12-19 PPIC %4 Barack-Obama 48 John-McCain 39 Other 3 Unsure 10 Rasmussen-Reports http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/polls/pdfs/rasmussen-reports-california-aug21-2008.pdf 8/21/08 N=500 8/23/08 BEGIN McCain is viewed favorably by 51% of voters in California and unfavorably by 48%. Obama�s ratings are 61% favorable, 39% unfavorable. The latest survey also found that while 80% of voters in California say finding new energy sources is an urgent national need, 70% say that of reducing energy consumption. When given the choice of which is more important, 59% chose finding new energy sources while 35% said reducing the amount of energy Americans consume. Those figures are similar to the national average. When it comes to presidential campaigns. 61% of voters in California say most politicians will break the rules in order to help those who contribute money to their campaigns. Like voters on the national level more voters in California (51%) say media bias is a bigger problem today than big campaign contributions. Forty-one percent (41%) take the opposite view. Slightly more voters in California (44%) say McCain is too influenced by campaign contributors and lobbyists than those who think that of Obama (38%). Governor of California Arnold Schwarzenegger earns good or excellent ratings from 28% of voters, while 32% say he is doing a poor job. President Bush earns good or excellent ratings from just 23% of voters, down from 30% last month, while 63% say he is doing a poor job, up from 57% last month. Nationally, the president�s approval ratings continue to hover around record lows. Men: Obama 45, McCain 37. Women: Obama 58, McCain 28. Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama has strong support among Democratic (79%) and independent (57%) likely voters. His lead is similar to the 17-point advantage he held over Sen. John McCain in May, when Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton was still a contender. Obama is the choice of men, women, and Latinos, while whites are divided (43% Obama, 41% McCain). McCain has strong support (72%) among Republicans. Regardless of who they support, likely voters trust Obama over McCain to handle environmental issues (52% to 28%) and energy policy (51% to 33%). The June poll was conducted just as McCain announced his proposal to drill in offshore oil wells, a plan that is popular nationwide but not on the West Coast. It seemed to unify McCain�s opposition in California. In California, as in many typically blue states, Obama had a big bounce after he clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination. Recent polls in New Hampshire and other states show closer races this month than just after the primaries. In California, the two candidates are now tied at 39% among unaffiliated voters. Last month, Obama had a big 55% to 32% lead among unaffiliateds. McCain is viewed favorably by 54% of voters in California, up from 43% last month. Forty-two percent (42%) of California voters have an unfavorable view of the Republican. Obama�s numbers are 60% favorable, down just three points from a month ago. The majority of Californians (52%) say protecting the environment is more important than reducing gas and oil prices. Forty-two percent (42%) say the opposite. Over half of voters in California (51%) say the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror. That surge of optimism echoes voter sentiments nationwide. Most voters (56%) agree with Obama that Iraq is not the �central front� of the war, while 43% of voters give that title to Afghanistan. The plurality (46%) also believes that Afghanistan is a bigger threat to the U.S. than Iraq. There are wide differences in voting dispositions between partisans. Democrats prefer Obama 78% to 9%, while Republicans support McCain 65% to 16%. However, Obama has a greater than three to one edge among this state's non-partisan voters (64% to 18%). Obama has also consolidated the support of Democrats and non-partisans who voted for Hillary Clinton in the February 5th California primary. Currently Obama is preferred by a 80% to 8% margin among these voters. There are also big differences in voting preference by political ideology. Strong conservatives are supporting McCain 74% to 8%, while those identifying themselves as moderately conservative back McCain 55% to 27%. However, both strong and moderate liberals are almost universally behind Obama. Obama also leads by greater than a two to one margin (59% to 23%) among middle-of-the-road voters. Obama holds very large leads among voters in the state's two largest population centers, Los Angeles County and the San Francisco Bay Area, which collectively comprise a little less than half (44%) of all likely voters statewide. In the Bay Area in particular, Obama leads McCain six to one (73% to 12%). McCain is competitive with Obama only in the Central Valley and in Southern California outside of Los Angeles. . . Clinton does better than Obama against McCain among white voters but fails to get even 50% of the black vote. In a McCain-Clinton matchup, 30% of black voters would either stay home or vote for a third party candidate. . . . . . . . . . . .
The Field Poll
Date: 2/1/08
California
Added: 2/1/08
Quote: Obama enjoys overwhelming support from Democrats (81%) and McCain enjoys similarly high levels of support from Republicans (77%). Independents favor Obama (48%) over McCain (33%) and 16 percent are undecided. However, since July, Obama�s share of the independent vote has dropped 9 points, while McCain�s share has increased 12 points. Among likely voters, women prefer Obama to McCain, and men remain divided. Among Latino likely voters, Obama enjoys overwhelming support, while whites prefer McCain. Likely voters under age 35 strongly favor Obama over McCain (65% to 21%), while support among likely voters age 55 and older is divided (43% Obama, 45% McCain). Among likely voters who say the economy is the top issue they want to hear candidates talk about, half favor Obama (53% Obama, 31% McCain). Just 48 percent of likely voters say they are satisfied with their choice of presidential candidates, and 49 percent say they are not satisfied. Satisfaction with the choice of presidential candidate is much lower than was satisfaction with the choice of presidential primary candidates in January (64% satisfied, 31% not satisfied). Across parties today, two in three Democrats (68%) say they are satisfied with their presidential candidate choices, while just 40 percent of independents and 35 percent of Republicans report the same level of satisfaction. In January, both Democrats (77%) and Republicans (52%) were more likely to report satisfaction with their presidential primary candidate choices.END 8/12-19 PPIC %4 Barack-Obama 48 John-McCain 39 Other 3 Unsure 10 Rasmussen-Reports http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/polls/pdfs/rasmussen-reports-california-aug21-2008.pdf 8/21/08 N=500 8/23/08 BEGIN McCain is viewed favorably by 51% of voters in California and unfavorably by 48%. Obama�s ratings are 61% favorable, 39% unfavorable. The latest survey also found that while 80% of voters in California say finding new energy sources is an urgent national need, 70% say that of reducing energy consumption. When given the choice of which is more important, 59% chose finding new energy sources while 35% said reducing the amount of energy Americans consume. Those figures are similar to the national average. When it comes to presidential campaigns. 61% of voters in California say most politicians will break the rules in order to help those who contribute money to their campaigns. Like voters on the national level more voters in California (51%) say media bias is a bigger problem today than big campaign contributions. Forty-one percent (41%) take the opposite view. Slightly more voters in California (44%) say McCain is too influenced by campaign contributors and lobbyists than those who think that of Obama (38%). Governor of California Arnold Schwarzenegger earns good or excellent ratings from 28% of voters, while 32% say he is doing a poor job. President Bush earns good or excellent ratings from just 23% of voters, down from 30% last month, while 63% say he is doing a poor job, up from 57% last month. Nationally, the president�s approval ratings continue to hover around record lows. Men: Obama 45, McCain 37. Women: Obama 58, McCain 28. Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama has strong support among Democratic (79%) and independent (57%) likely voters. His lead is similar to the 17-point advantage he held over Sen. John McCain in May, when Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton was still a contender. Obama is the choice of men, women, and Latinos, while whites are divided (43% Obama, 41% McCain). McCain has strong support (72%) among Republicans. Regardless of who they support, likely voters trust Obama over McCain to handle environmental issues (52% to 28%) and energy policy (51% to 33%). The June poll was conducted just as McCain announced his proposal to drill in offshore oil wells, a plan that is popular nationwide but not on the West Coast. It seemed to unify McCain�s opposition in California. In California, as in many typically blue states, Obama had a big bounce after he clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination. Recent polls in New Hampshire and other states show closer races this month than just after the primaries. In California, the two candidates are now tied at 39% among unaffiliated voters. Last month, Obama had a big 55% to 32% lead among unaffiliateds. McCain is viewed favorably by 54% of voters in California, up from 43% last month. Forty-two percent (42%) of California voters have an unfavorable view of the Republican. Obama�s numbers are 60% favorable, down just three points from a month ago. The majority of Californians (52%) say protecting the environment is more important than reducing gas and oil prices. Forty-two percent (42%) say the opposite. Over half of voters in California (51%) say the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror. That surge of optimism echoes voter sentiments nationwide. Most voters (56%) agree with Obama that Iraq is not the �central front� of the war, while 43% of voters give that title to Afghanistan. The plurality (46%) also believes that Afghanistan is a bigger threat to the U.S. than Iraq. There are wide differences in voting dispositions between partisans. Democrats prefer Obama 78% to 9%, while Republicans support McCain 65% to 16%. However, Obama has a greater than three to one edge among this state's non-partisan voters (64% to 18%). Obama has also consolidated the support of Democrats and non-partisans who voted for Hillary Clinton in the February 5th California primary. Currently Obama is preferred by a 80% to 8% margin among these voters. There are also big differences in voting preference by political ideology. Strong conservatives are supporting McCain 74% to 8%, while those identifying themselves as moderately conservative back McCain 55% to 27%. However, both strong and moderate liberals are almost universally behind Obama. Obama also leads by greater than a two to one margin (59% to 23%) among middle-of-the-road voters. Obama holds very large leads among voters in the state's two largest population centers, Los Angeles County and the San Francisco Bay Area, which collectively comprise a little less than half (44%) of all likely voters statewide. In the Bay Area in particular, Obama leads McCain six to one (73% to 12%). McCain is competitive with Obama only in the Central Valley and in Southern California outside of Los Angeles. . . Clinton does better than Obama against McCain among white voters but fails to get even 50% of the black vote. In a McCain-Clinton matchup, 30% of black voters would either stay home or vote for a third party candidate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 California polls.
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