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Democrat Polls
Mason Dixon
Date: 8/25-26
Florida
Added: 8/28/08
Quote: The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 56% of Florida voters, Obama by 52%. For both men, those figures represent a slight decline over the past week. Forty-four percent (44%) say they would be extremely or very comfortable with McCain as President while 40% say the same about Obama. As for the running mates, 46% say they would be that comfortable with Joe Biden as President and 39% are that comfortable with Sarah Palin. Nationally, 63% of voters say that John McCain is prepared to be President while 44% say the same about Obama. Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John W. Kerry 52% to 47% in the Sunshine State. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state. . Florida men likely voters back McCain 54 - 41 percent, while women go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama, the first time he has trailed among women. White voters back McCain 59 - 35 percent. Obama leads 55 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 52 - 41 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 54 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 50 - 43 percent, compared to 47 - 39 percent August 26 and 24 percent of those who backed Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary now support McCain, up from 14 percent August 26. By a 58 - 29 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 49 - 35 percent for Obama. Palin gets a 47 - 23 percent favorability, with 38 - 28 percent for Biden. The economy is the most important issue in the election, 49 percent of Florida voters say, as 12 percent cite the war in Iraq; 11 percent list terrorism; 9 percent say health care and 8 percent say energy policy. Florida likely voters say 58 - 38 percent that the vice presidential candidates picked by McCain and Obama will have little impact on which candidate they will pick on Election Day. "Sen. McCain has opened up a sizable lead over Sen. Obama in Florida on his ability to capture most demographic groups," said Brown. "He wins voters over age 35 overwhelmingly; takes independents and keeps a larger share of Republicans than Obama captures of Democrats." The race in Florida has been tight since July, with neither candidate holding more than a three percentage-point advantage in the last two polls. Prior to July, McCain enjoyed more solid leads over the Democrat. The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 61% of Floridian voters and unfavorably by 37%. Obama�s numbers are 55% favorable, 45% unfavorable. As for the Vice Presidential nominees, the ratings are similar. Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 42%. Biden receives favorable ratings from 51% and unfavorable ratings from 43%. Each candidate has expanded his share of the vote within his own party over the last month but there�s been a five point shift in party identification toward the Republican side, perhaps because of momentum from a successful convention last week. �Barack Obama has dropped a few points each time we�ve polled Florida over the course of the summer,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Virginia and Colorado may end up as the states more critical to his Electoral College strategy this fall if the trend continues.� John McCain�s choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate appears to be a hit with Florida voters. 45% of respondents said it made them more likely to support McCain while just 36% said the choice of Joe Biden makes them more likely to choose Obama. McCain�s support with white voters is at a new high, as he leads 61-34 with them. Obama will have a hard time winning the state if he can�t cut down that margin and also increase his lead with Hispanic voters, among whom he currently leads 49-42. Obama holds only a statistically insignificant 1 point lead over McCain in Florida, with 45 percent of Florida voters favoring Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. Another 11 percent said they were undecided. The poll, taken on the first two days of the Democratic National Convention this week, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Obama, a senator for Illinois, is scheduled to accept the nomination on Thursday. The poll, of 625 likely voters, also showed that Obama�s selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden to be his running mate on the Democratic ticket is not having a large effect on Floridians. Only 14 percent said Biden made them more likely to vote for Obama, while 11 percent said it made them less likely. As for expected Republican nominee McCain, voters in the poll favored Mitt Romney as the Arizona senator�s VP choice. About 50 percent of Republicans said Romney�s choice would make it more likely for them to vote for McCain.
Strategic Vision
Date: 8/22-24
Florida
Added: 8/27/08
Quote: The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 56% of Florida voters, Obama by 52%. For both men, those figures represent a slight decline over the past week. Forty-four percent (44%) say they would be extremely or very comfortable with McCain as President while 40% say the same about Obama. As for the running mates, 46% say they would be that comfortable with Joe Biden as President and 39% are that comfortable with Sarah Palin. Nationally, 63% of voters say that John McCain is prepared to be President while 44% say the same about Obama. Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John W. Kerry 52% to 47% in the Sunshine State. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state. . Florida men likely voters back McCain 54 - 41 percent, while women go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama, the first time he has trailed among women. White voters back McCain 59 - 35 percent. Obama leads 55 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 52 - 41 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 54 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 50 - 43 percent, compared to 47 - 39 percent August 26 and 24 percent of those who backed Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary now support McCain, up from 14 percent August 26. By a 58 - 29 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 49 - 35 percent for Obama. Palin gets a 47 - 23 percent favorability, with 38 - 28 percent for Biden. The economy is the most important issue in the election, 49 percent of Florida voters say, as 12 percent cite the war in Iraq; 11 percent list terrorism; 9 percent say health care and 8 percent say energy policy. Florida likely voters say 58 - 38 percent that the vice presidential candidates picked by McCain and Obama will have little impact on which candidate they will pick on Election Day. "Sen. McCain has opened up a sizable lead over Sen. Obama in Florida on his ability to capture most demographic groups," said Brown. "He wins voters over age 35 overwhelmingly; takes independents and keeps a larger share of Republicans than Obama captures of Democrats." The race in Florida has been tight since July, with neither candidate holding more than a three percentage-point advantage in the last two polls. Prior to July, McCain enjoyed more solid leads over the Democrat. The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 61% of Floridian voters and unfavorably by 37%. Obama�s numbers are 55% favorable, 45% unfavorable. As for the Vice Presidential nominees, the ratings are similar. Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 42%. Biden receives favorable ratings from 51% and unfavorable ratings from 43%. Each candidate has expanded his share of the vote within his own party over the last month but there�s been a five point shift in party identification toward the Republican side, perhaps because of momentum from a successful convention last week. �Barack Obama has dropped a few points each time we�ve polled Florida over the course of the summer,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Virginia and Colorado may end up as the states more critical to his Electoral College strategy this fall if the trend continues.� John McCain�s choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate appears to be a hit with Florida voters. 45% of respondents said it made them more likely to support McCain while just 36% said the choice of Joe Biden makes them more likely to choose Obama. McCain�s support with white voters is at a new high, as he leads 61-34 with them. Obama will have a hard time winning the state if he can�t cut down that margin and also increase his lead with Hispanic voters, among whom he currently leads 49-42. Obama holds only a statistically insignificant 1 point lead over McCain in Florida, with 45 percent of Florida voters favoring Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. Another 11 percent said they were undecided. The poll, taken on the first two days of the Democratic National Convention this week, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Obama, a senator for Illinois, is scheduled to accept the nomination on Thursday. The poll, of 625 likely voters, also showed that Obama�s selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden to be his running mate on the Democratic ticket is not having a large effect on Floridians. Only 14 percent said Biden made them more likely to vote for Obama, while 11 percent said it made them less likely. As for expected Republican nominee McCain, voters in the poll favored Mitt Romney as the Arizona senator�s VP choice. About 50 percent of Republicans said Romney�s choice would make it more likely for them to vote for McCain. Do you view President Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan? (Republicans only) Yes 8% No 71% Undecided 21% Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is performing its job? Approve 11% Disapprove 74% Undecided 15% Do you favor an immediate withdrawal of the United States military forces from Iraq, within the next six months? Yes 40% No 47% Undecided 13% Do you favor or oppose increased exploration and drilling of natural gas off the shores of Florida? Favor 62% Oppose 27% Undecided 11% Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Charlie Crist's job performance? Approve 59% Disapprove 30% Undecided 11%
Quinnipiac University
Date: 8/17-24
Florida
Added: 8/26/08
Quote: The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 56% of Florida voters, Obama by 52%. For both men, those figures represent a slight decline over the past week. Forty-four percent (44%) say they would be extremely or very comfortable with McCain as President while 40% say the same about Obama. As for the running mates, 46% say they would be that comfortable with Joe Biden as President and 39% are that comfortable with Sarah Palin. Nationally, 63% of voters say that John McCain is prepared to be President while 44% say the same about Obama. Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John W. Kerry 52% to 47% in the Sunshine State. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state. . Florida men likely voters back McCain 54 - 41 percent, while women go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama, the first time he has trailed among women. White voters back McCain 59 - 35 percent. Obama leads 55 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 52 - 41 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 54 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 50 - 43 percent, compared to 47 - 39 percent August 26 and 24 percent of those who backed Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary now support McCain, up from 14 percent August 26. By a 58 - 29 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 49 - 35 percent for Obama. Palin gets a 47 - 23 percent favorability, with 38 - 28 percent for Biden. The economy is the most important issue in the election, 49 percent of Florida voters say, as 12 percent cite the war in Iraq; 11 percent list terrorism; 9 percent say health care and 8 percent say energy policy. Florida likely voters say 58 - 38 percent that the vice presidential candidates picked by McCain and Obama will have little impact on which candidate they will pick on Election Day. "Sen. McCain has opened up a sizable lead over Sen. Obama in Florida on his ability to capture most demographic groups," said Brown. "He wins voters over age 35 overwhelmingly; takes independents and keeps a larger share of Republicans than Obama captures of Democrats." The race in Florida has been tight since July, with neither candidate holding more than a three percentage-point advantage in the last two polls. Prior to July, McCain enjoyed more solid leads over the Democrat. The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 61% of Floridian voters and unfavorably by 37%. Obama�s numbers are 55% favorable, 45% unfavorable. As for the Vice Presidential nominees, the ratings are similar. Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 42%. Biden receives favorable ratings from 51% and unfavorable ratings from 43%. Each candidate has expanded his share of the vote within his own party over the last month but there�s been a five point shift in party identification toward the Republican side, perhaps because of momentum from a successful convention last week. �Barack Obama has dropped a few points each time we�ve polled Florida over the course of the summer,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Virginia and Colorado may end up as the states more critical to his Electoral College strategy this fall if the trend continues.� John McCain�s choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate appears to be a hit with Florida voters. 45% of respondents said it made them more likely to support McCain while just 36% said the choice of Joe Biden makes them more likely to choose Obama. McCain�s support with white voters is at a new high, as he leads 61-34 with them. Obama will have a hard time winning the state if he can�t cut down that margin and also increase his lead with Hispanic voters, among whom he currently leads 49-42. Obama holds only a statistically insignificant 1 point lead over McCain in Florida, with 45 percent of Florida voters favoring Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. Another 11 percent said they were undecided. The poll, taken on the first two days of the Democratic National Convention this week, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Obama, a senator for Illinois, is scheduled to accept the nomination on Thursday. The poll, of 625 likely voters, also showed that Obama�s selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden to be his running mate on the Democratic ticket is not having a large effect on Floridians. Only 14 percent said Biden made them more likely to vote for Obama, while 11 percent said it made them less likely. As for expected Republican nominee McCain, voters in the poll favored Mitt Romney as the Arizona senator�s VP choice. About 50 percent of Republicans said Romney�s choice would make it more likely for them to vote for McCain. Do you view President Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan? (Republicans only) Yes 8% No 71% Undecided 21% Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is performing its job? Approve 11% Disapprove 74% Undecided 15% Do you favor an immediate withdrawal of the United States military forces from Iraq, within the next six months? Yes 40% No 47% Undecided 13% Do you favor or oppose increased exploration and drilling of natural gas off the shores of Florida? Favor 62% Oppose 27% Undecided 11% Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Charlie Crist's job performance? Approve 59% Disapprove 30% Undecided 11% Florida men likely voters back McCain 50 - 41 percent, while women split 45 - 45 percent. White voters back McCain 55 - 35 percent while black voters back Obama 87 - 7 percent. Obama leads 56 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 48 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 52 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 47 - 39 percent, compared to 46 - 41 percent July 31. By a 55 - 32 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 51 - 36 percent for Obama.
Kitchens Group
Date: 8/18-21
Florida
Added: 8/25/08
Quote: The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 56% of Florida voters, Obama by 52%. For both men, those figures represent a slight decline over the past week. Forty-four percent (44%) say they would be extremely or very comfortable with McCain as President while 40% say the same about Obama. As for the running mates, 46% say they would be that comfortable with Joe Biden as President and 39% are that comfortable with Sarah Palin. Nationally, 63% of voters say that John McCain is prepared to be President while 44% say the same about Obama. Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John W. Kerry 52% to 47% in the Sunshine State. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state. . Florida men likely voters back McCain 54 - 41 percent, while women go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama, the first time he has trailed among women. White voters back McCain 59 - 35 percent. Obama leads 55 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 52 - 41 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 54 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 50 - 43 percent, compared to 47 - 39 percent August 26 and 24 percent of those who backed Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary now support McCain, up from 14 percent August 26. By a 58 - 29 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 49 - 35 percent for Obama. Palin gets a 47 - 23 percent favorability, with 38 - 28 percent for Biden. The economy is the most important issue in the election, 49 percent of Florida voters say, as 12 percent cite the war in Iraq; 11 percent list terrorism; 9 percent say health care and 8 percent say energy policy. Florida likely voters say 58 - 38 percent that the vice presidential candidates picked by McCain and Obama will have little impact on which candidate they will pick on Election Day. "Sen. McCain has opened up a sizable lead over Sen. Obama in Florida on his ability to capture most demographic groups," said Brown. "He wins voters over age 35 overwhelmingly; takes independents and keeps a larger share of Republicans than Obama captures of Democrats." The race in Florida has been tight since July, with neither candidate holding more than a three percentage-point advantage in the last two polls. Prior to July, McCain enjoyed more solid leads over the Democrat. The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 61% of Floridian voters and unfavorably by 37%. Obama�s numbers are 55% favorable, 45% unfavorable. As for the Vice Presidential nominees, the ratings are similar. Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 42%. Biden receives favorable ratings from 51% and unfavorable ratings from 43%. Each candidate has expanded his share of the vote within his own party over the last month but there�s been a five point shift in party identification toward the Republican side, perhaps because of momentum from a successful convention last week. �Barack Obama has dropped a few points each time we�ve polled Florida over the course of the summer,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Virginia and Colorado may end up as the states more critical to his Electoral College strategy this fall if the trend continues.� John McCain�s choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate appears to be a hit with Florida voters. 45% of respondents said it made them more likely to support McCain while just 36% said the choice of Joe Biden makes them more likely to choose Obama. McCain�s support with white voters is at a new high, as he leads 61-34 with them. Obama will have a hard time winning the state if he can�t cut down that margin and also increase his lead with Hispanic voters, among whom he currently leads 49-42. Obama holds only a statistically insignificant 1 point lead over McCain in Florida, with 45 percent of Florida voters favoring Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. Another 11 percent said they were undecided. The poll, taken on the first two days of the Democratic National Convention this week, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Obama, a senator for Illinois, is scheduled to accept the nomination on Thursday. The poll, of 625 likely voters, also showed that Obama�s selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden to be his running mate on the Democratic ticket is not having a large effect on Floridians. Only 14 percent said Biden made them more likely to vote for Obama, while 11 percent said it made them less likely. As for expected Republican nominee McCain, voters in the poll favored Mitt Romney as the Arizona senator�s VP choice. About 50 percent of Republicans said Romney�s choice would make it more likely for them to vote for McCain. Do you view President Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan? (Republicans only) Yes 8% No 71% Undecided 21% Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is performing its job? Approve 11% Disapprove 74% Undecided 15% Do you favor an immediate withdrawal of the United States military forces from Iraq, within the next six months? Yes 40% No 47% Undecided 13% Do you favor or oppose increased exploration and drilling of natural gas off the shores of Florida? Favor 62% Oppose 27% Undecided 11% Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Charlie Crist's job performance? Approve 59% Disapprove 30% Undecided 11% Florida men likely voters back McCain 50 - 41 percent, while women split 45 - 45 percent. White voters back McCain 55 - 35 percent while black voters back Obama 87 - 7 percent. Obama leads 56 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 48 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 52 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 47 - 39 percent, compared to 46 - 41 percent July 31. By a 55 - 32 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 51 - 36 percent for Obama. .
American Research Group
Date: 8/18-20
Florida
Added: 8/22/08
Quote: The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 56% of Florida voters, Obama by 52%. For both men, those figures represent a slight decline over the past week. Forty-four percent (44%) say they would be extremely or very comfortable with McCain as President while 40% say the same about Obama. As for the running mates, 46% say they would be that comfortable with Joe Biden as President and 39% are that comfortable with Sarah Palin. Nationally, 63% of voters say that John McCain is prepared to be President while 44% say the same about Obama. Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John W. Kerry 52% to 47% in the Sunshine State. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state. . Florida men likely voters back McCain 54 - 41 percent, while women go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama, the first time he has trailed among women. White voters back McCain 59 - 35 percent. Obama leads 55 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 52 - 41 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 54 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 50 - 43 percent, compared to 47 - 39 percent August 26 and 24 percent of those who backed Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary now support McCain, up from 14 percent August 26. By a 58 - 29 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 49 - 35 percent for Obama. Palin gets a 47 - 23 percent favorability, with 38 - 28 percent for Biden. The economy is the most important issue in the election, 49 percent of Florida voters say, as 12 percent cite the war in Iraq; 11 percent list terrorism; 9 percent say health care and 8 percent say energy policy. Florida likely voters say 58 - 38 percent that the vice presidential candidates picked by McCain and Obama will have little impact on which candidate they will pick on Election Day. "Sen. McCain has opened up a sizable lead over Sen. Obama in Florida on his ability to capture most demographic groups," said Brown. "He wins voters over age 35 overwhelmingly; takes independents and keeps a larger share of Republicans than Obama captures of Democrats." The race in Florida has been tight since July, with neither candidate holding more than a three percentage-point advantage in the last two polls. Prior to July, McCain enjoyed more solid leads over the Democrat. The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 61% of Floridian voters and unfavorably by 37%. Obama�s numbers are 55% favorable, 45% unfavorable. As for the Vice Presidential nominees, the ratings are similar. Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 42%. Biden receives favorable ratings from 51% and unfavorable ratings from 43%. Each candidate has expanded his share of the vote within his own party over the last month but there�s been a five point shift in party identification toward the Republican side, perhaps because of momentum from a successful convention last week. �Barack Obama has dropped a few points each time we�ve polled Florida over the course of the summer,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Virginia and Colorado may end up as the states more critical to his Electoral College strategy this fall if the trend continues.� John McCain�s choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate appears to be a hit with Florida voters. 45% of respondents said it made them more likely to support McCain while just 36% said the choice of Joe Biden makes them more likely to choose Obama. McCain�s support with white voters is at a new high, as he leads 61-34 with them. Obama will have a hard time winning the state if he can�t cut down that margin and also increase his lead with Hispanic voters, among whom he currently leads 49-42. Obama holds only a statistically insignificant 1 point lead over McCain in Florida, with 45 percent of Florida voters favoring Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. Another 11 percent said they were undecided. The poll, taken on the first two days of the Democratic National Convention this week, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Obama, a senator for Illinois, is scheduled to accept the nomination on Thursday. The poll, of 625 likely voters, also showed that Obama�s selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden to be his running mate on the Democratic ticket is not having a large effect on Floridians. Only 14 percent said Biden made them more likely to vote for Obama, while 11 percent said it made them less likely. As for expected Republican nominee McCain, voters in the poll favored Mitt Romney as the Arizona senator�s VP choice. About 50 percent of Republicans said Romney�s choice would make it more likely for them to vote for McCain. Do you view President Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan? (Republicans only) Yes 8% No 71% Undecided 21% Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is performing its job? Approve 11% Disapprove 74% Undecided 15% Do you favor an immediate withdrawal of the United States military forces from Iraq, within the next six months? Yes 40% No 47% Undecided 13% Do you favor or oppose increased exploration and drilling of natural gas off the shores of Florida? Favor 62% Oppose 27% Undecided 11% Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Charlie Crist's job performance? Approve 59% Disapprove 30% Undecided 11% Florida men likely voters back McCain 50 - 41 percent, while women split 45 - 45 percent. White voters back McCain 55 - 35 percent while black voters back Obama 87 - 7 percent. Obama leads 56 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 48 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 52 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 47 - 39 percent, compared to 46 - 41 percent July 31. By a 55 - 32 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 51 - 36 percent for Obama. . Barack Obama leads John McCain 77% to 17% among Democrats (45% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 83% to 9% among Republicans (38% of likely voters). And Obama leads McCain 47% to 45% among independent voters (17% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 51% to 42% among men (48% of likely voters). Among women (52% of likely voters), Obama leads 49% to 44%. McCain leads Obama 55% to 39% among white voters (71% of likely voters). Obama leads McCain 85% to 7% among African American voters (13% of likely voters). And McCain leads Obama 46% to 45% among Hispanic voters (16% of likely voters). Obama leads McCain 49% to 45% among voters age 18 to 49 (44% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (56% of likely voters), McCain leads 49% to 44%. 45% of likely voters say they would never vote for John McCain in the general election, up from 32% in July, and 33% of likely voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the general election, down from 39% in July.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 8/18
Florida
Added: 8/20/08
Quote: The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 56% of Florida voters, Obama by 52%. For both men, those figures represent a slight decline over the past week. Forty-four percent (44%) say they would be extremely or very comfortable with McCain as President while 40% say the same about Obama. As for the running mates, 46% say they would be that comfortable with Joe Biden as President and 39% are that comfortable with Sarah Palin. Nationally, 63% of voters say that John McCain is prepared to be President while 44% say the same about Obama. Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John W. Kerry 52% to 47% in the Sunshine State. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state. . Florida men likely voters back McCain 54 - 41 percent, while women go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama, the first time he has trailed among women. White voters back McCain 59 - 35 percent. Obama leads 55 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 52 - 41 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 54 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 50 - 43 percent, compared to 47 - 39 percent August 26 and 24 percent of those who backed Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary now support McCain, up from 14 percent August 26. By a 58 - 29 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 49 - 35 percent for Obama. Palin gets a 47 - 23 percent favorability, with 38 - 28 percent for Biden. The economy is the most important issue in the election, 49 percent of Florida voters say, as 12 percent cite the war in Iraq; 11 percent list terrorism; 9 percent say health care and 8 percent say energy policy. Florida likely voters say 58 - 38 percent that the vice presidential candidates picked by McCain and Obama will have little impact on which candidate they will pick on Election Day. "Sen. McCain has opened up a sizable lead over Sen. Obama in Florida on his ability to capture most demographic groups," said Brown. "He wins voters over age 35 overwhelmingly; takes independents and keeps a larger share of Republicans than Obama captures of Democrats." The race in Florida has been tight since July, with neither candidate holding more than a three percentage-point advantage in the last two polls. Prior to July, McCain enjoyed more solid leads over the Democrat. The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 61% of Floridian voters and unfavorably by 37%. Obama�s numbers are 55% favorable, 45% unfavorable. As for the Vice Presidential nominees, the ratings are similar. Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 42%. Biden receives favorable ratings from 51% and unfavorable ratings from 43%. Each candidate has expanded his share of the vote within his own party over the last month but there�s been a five point shift in party identification toward the Republican side, perhaps because of momentum from a successful convention last week. �Barack Obama has dropped a few points each time we�ve polled Florida over the course of the summer,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Virginia and Colorado may end up as the states more critical to his Electoral College strategy this fall if the trend continues.� John McCain�s choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate appears to be a hit with Florida voters. 45% of respondents said it made them more likely to support McCain while just 36% said the choice of Joe Biden makes them more likely to choose Obama. McCain�s support with white voters is at a new high, as he leads 61-34 with them. Obama will have a hard time winning the state if he can�t cut down that margin and also increase his lead with Hispanic voters, among whom he currently leads 49-42. Obama holds only a statistically insignificant 1 point lead over McCain in Florida, with 45 percent of Florida voters favoring Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. Another 11 percent said they were undecided. The poll, taken on the first two days of the Democratic National Convention this week, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Obama, a senator for Illinois, is scheduled to accept the nomination on Thursday. The poll, of 625 likely voters, also showed that Obama�s selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden to be his running mate on the Democratic ticket is not having a large effect on Floridians. Only 14 percent said Biden made them more likely to vote for Obama, while 11 percent said it made them less likely. As for expected Republican nominee McCain, voters in the poll favored Mitt Romney as the Arizona senator�s VP choice. About 50 percent of Republicans said Romney�s choice would make it more likely for them to vote for McCain. Do you view President Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan? (Republicans only) Yes 8% No 71% Undecided 21% Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is performing its job? Approve 11% Disapprove 74% Undecided 15% Do you favor an immediate withdrawal of the United States military forces from Iraq, within the next six months? Yes 40% No 47% Undecided 13% Do you favor or oppose increased exploration and drilling of natural gas off the shores of Florida? Favor 62% Oppose 27% Undecided 11% Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Charlie Crist's job performance? Approve 59% Disapprove 30% Undecided 11% Florida men likely voters back McCain 50 - 41 percent, while women split 45 - 45 percent. White voters back McCain 55 - 35 percent while black voters back Obama 87 - 7 percent. Obama leads 56 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 48 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 52 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 47 - 39 percent, compared to 46 - 41 percent July 31. By a 55 - 32 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 51 - 36 percent for Obama. . Barack Obama leads John McCain 77% to 17% among Democrats (45% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 83% to 9% among Republicans (38% of likely voters). And Obama leads McCain 47% to 45% among independent voters (17% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 51% to 42% among men (48% of likely voters). Among women (52% of likely voters), Obama leads 49% to 44%. McCain leads Obama 55% to 39% among white voters (71% of likely voters). Obama leads McCain 85% to 7% among African American voters (13% of likely voters). And McCain leads Obama 46% to 45% among Hispanic voters (16% of likely voters). Obama leads McCain 49% to 45% among voters age 18 to 49 (44% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (56% of likely voters), McCain leads 49% to 44%. 45% of likely voters say they would never vote for John McCain in the general election, up from 32% in July, and 33% of likely voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the general election, down from 39% in July. McCain regained sizable ground among unaffiliated voters in the new survey. After trailing among unaffiliateds by 23% in July, he has now drawn even with Obama among those voters. McCain earns the vote from 86% of Republicans while 78% of Democrats say they�ll vote for Obama. Nationally, the race between Obama and McCain remains very close in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. As he does nationally, Obama leads McCain among women voters. In Florida, he has a 52% to 41% advantage, roughly comparable to last month. McCain has an even larger spread among men, 51% to 33%. That represents a sizable gain since July. Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John W. Kerry 52% to 47% in the Sunshine State. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state. McCain�s ability to stay competitive in the race with the younger and more charismatic Obama is credited in large part to his championing of offshore oil drilling as one way to offset high gas and oil prices. The majority of voters in Florida, a state which is directly impacted by his position, favor lifting the congressional ban on such drilling. So do most voters nationwide. A plurality of Florida voters (42%) rank economic issues as the most important in the current election cycle, down from 49% in July. For 26%, national security issues are the most important, an increase of seven percentage points in a month.
Insider Advantage Poll Position
Date: 8/11
Florida
Added: 8/13/08
Quote: The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 56% of Florida voters, Obama by 52%. For both men, those figures represent a slight decline over the past week. Forty-four percent (44%) say they would be extremely or very comfortable with McCain as President while 40% say the same about Obama. As for the running mates, 46% say they would be that comfortable with Joe Biden as President and 39% are that comfortable with Sarah Palin. Nationally, 63% of voters say that John McCain is prepared to be President while 44% say the same about Obama. Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John W. Kerry 52% to 47% in the Sunshine State. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state. . Florida men likely voters back McCain 54 - 41 percent, while women go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama, the first time he has trailed among women. White voters back McCain 59 - 35 percent. Obama leads 55 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 52 - 41 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 54 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 50 - 43 percent, compared to 47 - 39 percent August 26 and 24 percent of those who backed Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary now support McCain, up from 14 percent August 26. By a 58 - 29 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 49 - 35 percent for Obama. Palin gets a 47 - 23 percent favorability, with 38 - 28 percent for Biden. The economy is the most important issue in the election, 49 percent of Florida voters say, as 12 percent cite the war in Iraq; 11 percent list terrorism; 9 percent say health care and 8 percent say energy policy. Florida likely voters say 58 - 38 percent that the vice presidential candidates picked by McCain and Obama will have little impact on which candidate they will pick on Election Day. "Sen. McCain has opened up a sizable lead over Sen. Obama in Florida on his ability to capture most demographic groups," said Brown. "He wins voters over age 35 overwhelmingly; takes independents and keeps a larger share of Republicans than Obama captures of Democrats." The race in Florida has been tight since July, with neither candidate holding more than a three percentage-point advantage in the last two polls. Prior to July, McCain enjoyed more solid leads over the Democrat. The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 61% of Floridian voters and unfavorably by 37%. Obama�s numbers are 55% favorable, 45% unfavorable. As for the Vice Presidential nominees, the ratings are similar. Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 42%. Biden receives favorable ratings from 51% and unfavorable ratings from 43%. Each candidate has expanded his share of the vote within his own party over the last month but there�s been a five point shift in party identification toward the Republican side, perhaps because of momentum from a successful convention last week. �Barack Obama has dropped a few points each time we�ve polled Florida over the course of the summer,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Virginia and Colorado may end up as the states more critical to his Electoral College strategy this fall if the trend continues.� John McCain�s choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate appears to be a hit with Florida voters. 45% of respondents said it made them more likely to support McCain while just 36% said the choice of Joe Biden makes them more likely to choose Obama. McCain�s support with white voters is at a new high, as he leads 61-34 with them. Obama will have a hard time winning the state if he can�t cut down that margin and also increase his lead with Hispanic voters, among whom he currently leads 49-42. Obama holds only a statistically insignificant 1 point lead over McCain in Florida, with 45 percent of Florida voters favoring Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. Another 11 percent said they were undecided. The poll, taken on the first two days of the Democratic National Convention this week, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Obama, a senator for Illinois, is scheduled to accept the nomination on Thursday. The poll, of 625 likely voters, also showed that Obama�s selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden to be his running mate on the Democratic ticket is not having a large effect on Floridians. Only 14 percent said Biden made them more likely to vote for Obama, while 11 percent said it made them less likely. As for expected Republican nominee McCain, voters in the poll favored Mitt Romney as the Arizona senator�s VP choice. About 50 percent of Republicans said Romney�s choice would make it more likely for them to vote for McCain. Do you view President Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan? (Republicans only) Yes 8% No 71% Undecided 21% Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is performing its job? Approve 11% Disapprove 74% Undecided 15% Do you favor an immediate withdrawal of the United States military forces from Iraq, within the next six months? Yes 40% No 47% Undecided 13% Do you favor or oppose increased exploration and drilling of natural gas off the shores of Florida? Favor 62% Oppose 27% Undecided 11% Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Charlie Crist's job performance? Approve 59% Disapprove 30% Undecided 11% Florida men likely voters back McCain 50 - 41 percent, while women split 45 - 45 percent. White voters back McCain 55 - 35 percent while black voters back Obama 87 - 7 percent. Obama leads 56 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 48 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 52 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 47 - 39 percent, compared to 46 - 41 percent July 31. By a 55 - 32 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 51 - 36 percent for Obama. . Barack Obama leads John McCain 77% to 17% among Democrats (45% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 83% to 9% among Republicans (38% of likely voters). And Obama leads McCain 47% to 45% among independent voters (17% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 51% to 42% among men (48% of likely voters). Among women (52% of likely voters), Obama leads 49% to 44%. McCain leads Obama 55% to 39% among white voters (71% of likely voters). Obama leads McCain 85% to 7% among African American voters (13% of likely voters). And McCain leads Obama 46% to 45% among Hispanic voters (16% of likely voters). Obama leads McCain 49% to 45% among voters age 18 to 49 (44% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (56% of likely voters), McCain leads 49% to 44%. 45% of likely voters say they would never vote for John McCain in the general election, up from 32% in July, and 33% of likely voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the general election, down from 39% in July. McCain regained sizable ground among unaffiliated voters in the new survey. After trailing among unaffiliateds by 23% in July, he has now drawn even with Obama among those voters. McCain earns the vote from 86% of Republicans while 78% of Democrats say they�ll vote for Obama. Nationally, the race between Obama and McCain remains very close in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. As he does nationally, Obama leads McCain among women voters. In Florida, he has a 52% to 41% advantage, roughly comparable to last month. McCain has an even larger spread among men, 51% to 33%. That represents a sizable gain since July. Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John W. Kerry 52% to 47% in the Sunshine State. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state. McCain�s ability to stay competitive in the race with the younger and more charismatic Obama is credited in large part to his championing of offshore oil drilling as one way to offset high gas and oil prices. The majority of voters in Florida, a state which is directly impacted by his position, favor lifting the congressional ban on such drilling. So do most voters nationwide. A plurality of Florida voters (42%) rank economic issues as the most important in the current election cycle, down from 49% in July. For 26%, national security issues are the most important, an increase of seven percentage points in a month. Dramatic turns of event could still spell unexpected trouble or prosperity for either candidate, in Florida or elsewhere. But for now, Obama simply isn�t ginning up quite enough support in Florida to turn all eyes to the state as the �tiebreaker� in November. The likely reason is demographics. Florida doesn�t have as significant a percentage of blacks among its voting population as other big Southern states. Less well known is that it doesn�t have as many young voters either. Georgia, for example, is more stocked with the 18-29 year-olds that have flocked to the job market of Atlanta. And Florida�s young population is diluted as a percentage of the overall voting population by a glut of senior retirees. Another telling take on this poll, and on those of other major pollsters who have felt the pulse of the electorate this summer across the country: The modest percentage of undecided voters � 5% in our poll � may be an indication that the electorate is polarizing into similar partisan patterns as four and eight years ago. This may bode ill for Obama. He has carried his standard based on an appeal to voters who in the past have rejected the Democratic presidential candidate, but who supposedly are eager to jump the GOP ship because of disgust with George W. Bush. It may be that McCain�s storied political independence from his own Republican Party in the past, combined with unease about Obama�s fitness for the presidency, are persuading disaffected Republicans and independents to throw in with him. Obama�s full-court press of media buys in Florida was undoubtedly designed as much to force McCain to spend his comparatively modest resources here instead of elsewhere as it was meant to catapult Obama into the lead. But the strategy possibly could backfire if Obama�s spending spree doesn�t close the gap with McCain soon. Source: http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/story.aspx?sid=516
Public Policy Polling
Date: 7/30-8/2
Florida
Added: 8/6/08
Quote: The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 56% of Florida voters, Obama by 52%. For both men, those figures represent a slight decline over the past week. Forty-four percent (44%) say they would be extremely or very comfortable with McCain as President while 40% say the same about Obama. As for the running mates, 46% say they would be that comfortable with Joe Biden as President and 39% are that comfortable with Sarah Palin. Nationally, 63% of voters say that John McCain is prepared to be President while 44% say the same about Obama. Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John W. Kerry 52% to 47% in the Sunshine State. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state. . Florida men likely voters back McCain 54 - 41 percent, while women go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama, the first time he has trailed among women. White voters back McCain 59 - 35 percent. Obama leads 55 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 52 - 41 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 54 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 50 - 43 percent, compared to 47 - 39 percent August 26 and 24 percent of those who backed Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary now support McCain, up from 14 percent August 26. By a 58 - 29 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 49 - 35 percent for Obama. Palin gets a 47 - 23 percent favorability, with 38 - 28 percent for Biden. The economy is the most important issue in the election, 49 percent of Florida voters say, as 12 percent cite the war in Iraq; 11 percent list terrorism; 9 percent say health care and 8 percent say energy policy. Florida likely voters say 58 - 38 percent that the vice presidential candidates picked by McCain and Obama will have little impact on which candidate they will pick on Election Day. "Sen. McCain has opened up a sizable lead over Sen. Obama in Florida on his ability to capture most demographic groups," said Brown. "He wins voters over age 35 overwhelmingly; takes independents and keeps a larger share of Republicans than Obama captures of Democrats." The race in Florida has been tight since July, with neither candidate holding more than a three percentage-point advantage in the last two polls. Prior to July, McCain enjoyed more solid leads over the Democrat. The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 61% of Floridian voters and unfavorably by 37%. Obama�s numbers are 55% favorable, 45% unfavorable. As for the Vice Presidential nominees, the ratings are similar. Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 42%. Biden receives favorable ratings from 51% and unfavorable ratings from 43%. Each candidate has expanded his share of the vote within his own party over the last month but there�s been a five point shift in party identification toward the Republican side, perhaps because of momentum from a successful convention last week. �Barack Obama has dropped a few points each time we�ve polled Florida over the course of the summer,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Virginia and Colorado may end up as the states more critical to his Electoral College strategy this fall if the trend continues.� John McCain�s choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate appears to be a hit with Florida voters. 45% of respondents said it made them more likely to support McCain while just 36% said the choice of Joe Biden makes them more likely to choose Obama. McCain�s support with white voters is at a new high, as he leads 61-34 with them. Obama will have a hard time winning the state if he can�t cut down that margin and also increase his lead with Hispanic voters, among whom he currently leads 49-42. Obama holds only a statistically insignificant 1 point lead over McCain in Florida, with 45 percent of Florida voters favoring Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. Another 11 percent said they were undecided. The poll, taken on the first two days of the Democratic National Convention this week, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Obama, a senator for Illinois, is scheduled to accept the nomination on Thursday. The poll, of 625 likely voters, also showed that Obama�s selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden to be his running mate on the Democratic ticket is not having a large effect on Floridians. Only 14 percent said Biden made them more likely to vote for Obama, while 11 percent said it made them less likely. As for expected Republican nominee McCain, voters in the poll favored Mitt Romney as the Arizona senator�s VP choice. About 50 percent of Republicans said Romney�s choice would make it more likely for them to vote for McCain. Do you view President Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan? (Republicans only) Yes 8% No 71% Undecided 21% Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is performing its job? Approve 11% Disapprove 74% Undecided 15% Do you favor an immediate withdrawal of the United States military forces from Iraq, within the next six months? Yes 40% No 47% Undecided 13% Do you favor or oppose increased exploration and drilling of natural gas off the shores of Florida? Favor 62% Oppose 27% Undecided 11% Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Charlie Crist's job performance? Approve 59% Disapprove 30% Undecided 11% Florida men likely voters back McCain 50 - 41 percent, while women split 45 - 45 percent. White voters back McCain 55 - 35 percent while black voters back Obama 87 - 7 percent. Obama leads 56 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 48 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 52 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 47 - 39 percent, compared to 46 - 41 percent July 31. By a 55 - 32 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 51 - 36 percent for Obama. . Barack Obama leads John McCain 77% to 17% among Democrats (45% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 83% to 9% among Republicans (38% of likely voters). And Obama leads McCain 47% to 45% among independent voters (17% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 51% to 42% among men (48% of likely voters). Among women (52% of likely voters), Obama leads 49% to 44%. McCain leads Obama 55% to 39% among white voters (71% of likely voters). Obama leads McCain 85% to 7% among African American voters (13% of likely voters). And McCain leads Obama 46% to 45% among Hispanic voters (16% of likely voters). Obama leads McCain 49% to 45% among voters age 18 to 49 (44% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (56% of likely voters), McCain leads 49% to 44%. 45% of likely voters say they would never vote for John McCain in the general election, up from 32% in July, and 33% of likely voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the general election, down from 39% in July. McCain regained sizable ground among unaffiliated voters in the new survey. After trailing among unaffiliateds by 23% in July, he has now drawn even with Obama among those voters. McCain earns the vote from 86% of Republicans while 78% of Democrats say they�ll vote for Obama. Nationally, the race between Obama and McCain remains very close in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. As he does nationally, Obama leads McCain among women voters. In Florida, he has a 52% to 41% advantage, roughly comparable to last month. McCain has an even larger spread among men, 51% to 33%. That represents a sizable gain since July. Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John W. Kerry 52% to 47% in the Sunshine State. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state. McCain�s ability to stay competitive in the race with the younger and more charismatic Obama is credited in large part to his championing of offshore oil drilling as one way to offset high gas and oil prices. The majority of voters in Florida, a state which is directly impacted by his position, favor lifting the congressional ban on such drilling. So do most voters nationwide. A plurality of Florida voters (42%) rank economic issues as the most important in the current election cycle, down from 49% in July. For 26%, national security issues are the most important, an increase of seven percentage points in a month. Dramatic turns of event could still spell unexpected trouble or prosperity for either candidate, in Florida or elsewhere. But for now, Obama simply isn�t ginning up quite enough support in Florida to turn all eyes to the state as the �tiebreaker� in November. The likely reason is demographics. Florida doesn�t have as significant a percentage of blacks among its voting population as other big Southern states. Less well known is that it doesn�t have as many young voters either. Georgia, for example, is more stocked with the 18-29 year-olds that have flocked to the job market of Atlanta. And Florida�s young population is diluted as a percentage of the overall voting population by a glut of senior retirees. Another telling take on this poll, and on those of other major pollsters who have felt the pulse of the electorate this summer across the country: The modest percentage of undecided voters � 5% in our poll � may be an indication that the electorate is polarizing into similar partisan patterns as four and eight years ago. This may bode ill for Obama. He has carried his standard based on an appeal to voters who in the past have rejected the Democratic presidential candidate, but who supposedly are eager to jump the GOP ship because of disgust with George W. Bush. It may be that McCain�s storied political independence from his own Republican Party in the past, combined with unease about Obama�s fitness for the presidency, are persuading disaffected Republicans and independents to throw in with him. Obama�s full-court press of media buys in Florida was undoubtedly designed as much to force McCain to spend his comparatively modest resources here instead of elsewhere as it was meant to catapult Obama into the lead. But the strategy possibly could backfire if Obama�s spending spree doesn�t close the gap with McCain soon. Source: http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/story.aspx?sid=516 Men: Obama 32, McCain 49. Women: Obama 46, McCain 37. Obama earns just 76% of the Democratic vote, with the folks in his party supporting McCain disproportionately older white females. �The Democrats crossing over to support John McCain are your prototypical Hillary Clinton supporters,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Barack Obama still has some work to do getting those folks on his side if he wants to have any chance of winning Florida.� The survey also shows tightening among Hispanic voters over the last month. Obama now leads by just three points with them after showing a 14 point advantage in the previous survey.
Survey USA
Date: 8/1-3
Florida
Added: 8/5/08
Quote: The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 56% of Florida voters, Obama by 52%. For both men, those figures represent a slight decline over the past week. Forty-four percent (44%) say they would be extremely or very comfortable with McCain as President while 40% say the same about Obama. As for the running mates, 46% say they would be that comfortable with Joe Biden as President and 39% are that comfortable with Sarah Palin. Nationally, 63% of voters say that John McCain is prepared to be President while 44% say the same about Obama. Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John W. Kerry 52% to 47% in the Sunshine State. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state. . Florida men likely voters back McCain 54 - 41 percent, while women go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama, the first time he has trailed among women. White voters back McCain 59 - 35 percent. Obama leads 55 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 52 - 41 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 54 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 50 - 43 percent, compared to 47 - 39 percent August 26 and 24 percent of those who backed Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary now support McCain, up from 14 percent August 26. By a 58 - 29 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 49 - 35 percent for Obama. Palin gets a 47 - 23 percent favorability, with 38 - 28 percent for Biden. The economy is the most important issue in the election, 49 percent of Florida voters say, as 12 percent cite the war in Iraq; 11 percent list terrorism; 9 percent say health care and 8 percent say energy policy. Florida likely voters say 58 - 38 percent that the vice presidential candidates picked by McCain and Obama will have little impact on which candidate they will pick on Election Day. "Sen. McCain has opened up a sizable lead over Sen. Obama in Florida on his ability to capture most demographic groups," said Brown. "He wins voters over age 35 overwhelmingly; takes independents and keeps a larger share of Republicans than Obama captures of Democrats." The race in Florida has been tight since July, with neither candidate holding more than a three percentage-point advantage in the last two polls. Prior to July, McCain enjoyed more solid leads over the Democrat. The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 61% of Floridian voters and unfavorably by 37%. Obama�s numbers are 55% favorable, 45% unfavorable. As for the Vice Presidential nominees, the ratings are similar. Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 42%. Biden receives favorable ratings from 51% and unfavorable ratings from 43%. Each candidate has expanded his share of the vote within his own party over the last month but there�s been a five point shift in party identification toward the Republican side, perhaps because of momentum from a successful convention last week. �Barack Obama has dropped a few points each time we�ve polled Florida over the course of the summer,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Virginia and Colorado may end up as the states more critical to his Electoral College strategy this fall if the trend continues.� John McCain�s choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate appears to be a hit with Florida voters. 45% of respondents said it made them more likely to support McCain while just 36% said the choice of Joe Biden makes them more likely to choose Obama. McCain�s support with white voters is at a new high, as he leads 61-34 with them. Obama will have a hard time winning the state if he can�t cut down that margin and also increase his lead with Hispanic voters, among whom he currently leads 49-42. Obama holds only a statistically insignificant 1 point lead over McCain in Florida, with 45 percent of Florida voters favoring Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. Another 11 percent said they were undecided. The poll, taken on the first two days of the Democratic National Convention this week, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Obama, a senator for Illinois, is scheduled to accept the nomination on Thursday. The poll, of 625 likely voters, also showed that Obama�s selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden to be his running mate on the Democratic ticket is not having a large effect on Floridians. Only 14 percent said Biden made them more likely to vote for Obama, while 11 percent said it made them less likely. As for expected Republican nominee McCain, voters in the poll favored Mitt Romney as the Arizona senator�s VP choice. About 50 percent of Republicans said Romney�s choice would make it more likely for them to vote for McCain. Do you view President Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan? (Republicans only) Yes 8% No 71% Undecided 21% Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is performing its job? Approve 11% Disapprove 74% Undecided 15% Do you favor an immediate withdrawal of the United States military forces from Iraq, within the next six months? Yes 40% No 47% Undecided 13% Do you favor or oppose increased exploration and drilling of natural gas off the shores of Florida? Favor 62% Oppose 27% Undecided 11% Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Charlie Crist's job performance? Approve 59% Disapprove 30% Undecided 11% Florida men likely voters back McCain 50 - 41 percent, while women split 45 - 45 percent. White voters back McCain 55 - 35 percent while black voters back Obama 87 - 7 percent. Obama leads 56 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 48 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 52 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 47 - 39 percent, compared to 46 - 41 percent July 31. By a 55 - 32 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 51 - 36 percent for Obama. . Barack Obama leads John McCain 77% to 17% among Democrats (45% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 83% to 9% among Republicans (38% of likely voters). And Obama leads McCain 47% to 45% among independent voters (17% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 51% to 42% among men (48% of likely voters). Among women (52% of likely voters), Obama leads 49% to 44%. McCain leads Obama 55% to 39% among white voters (71% of likely voters). Obama leads McCain 85% to 7% among African American voters (13% of likely voters). And McCain leads Obama 46% to 45% among Hispanic voters (16% of likely voters). Obama leads McCain 49% to 45% among voters age 18 to 49 (44% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (56% of likely voters), McCain leads 49% to 44%. 45% of likely voters say they would never vote for John McCain in the general election, up from 32% in July, and 33% of likely voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the general election, down from 39% in July. McCain regained sizable ground among unaffiliated voters in the new survey. After trailing among unaffiliateds by 23% in July, he has now drawn even with Obama among those voters. McCain earns the vote from 86% of Republicans while 78% of Democrats say they�ll vote for Obama. Nationally, the race between Obama and McCain remains very close in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. As he does nationally, Obama leads McCain among women voters. In Florida, he has a 52% to 41% advantage, roughly comparable to last month. McCain has an even larger spread among men, 51% to 33%. That represents a sizable gain since July. Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John W. Kerry 52% to 47% in the Sunshine State. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state. McCain�s ability to stay competitive in the race with the younger and more charismatic Obama is credited in large part to his championing of offshore oil drilling as one way to offset high gas and oil prices. The majority of voters in Florida, a state which is directly impacted by his position, favor lifting the congressional ban on such drilling. So do most voters nationwide. A plurality of Florida voters (42%) rank economic issues as the most important in the current election cycle, down from 49% in July. For 26%, national security issues are the most important, an increase of seven percentage points in a month. Dramatic turns of event could still spell unexpected trouble or prosperity for either candidate, in Florida or elsewhere. But for now, Obama simply isn�t ginning up quite enough support in Florida to turn all eyes to the state as the �tiebreaker� in November. The likely reason is demographics. Florida doesn�t have as significant a percentage of blacks among its voting population as other big Southern states. Less well known is that it doesn�t have as many young voters either. Georgia, for example, is more stocked with the 18-29 year-olds that have flocked to the job market of Atlanta. And Florida�s young population is diluted as a percentage of the overall voting population by a glut of senior retirees. Another telling take on this poll, and on those of other major pollsters who have felt the pulse of the electorate this summer across the country: The modest percentage of undecided voters � 5% in our poll � may be an indication that the electorate is polarizing into similar partisan patterns as four and eight years ago. This may bode ill for Obama. He has carried his standard based on an appeal to voters who in the past have rejected the Democratic presidential candidate, but who supposedly are eager to jump the GOP ship because of disgust with George W. Bush. It may be that McCain�s storied political independence from his own Republican Party in the past, combined with unease about Obama�s fitness for the presidency, are persuading disaffected Republicans and independents to throw in with him. Obama�s full-court press of media buys in Florida was undoubtedly designed as much to force McCain to spend his comparatively modest resources here instead of elsewhere as it was meant to catapult Obama into the lead. But the strategy possibly could backfire if Obama�s spending spree doesn�t close the gap with McCain soon. Source: http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/story.aspx?sid=516 Men: Obama 32, McCain 49. Women: Obama 46, McCain 37. Obama earns just 76% of the Democratic vote, with the folks in his party supporting McCain disproportionately older white females. �The Democrats crossing over to support John McCain are your prototypical Hillary Clinton supporters,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Barack Obama still has some work to do getting those folks on his side if he wants to have any chance of winning Florida.� The survey also shows tightening among Hispanic voters over the last month. Obama now leads by just three points with them after showing a 14 point advantage in the previous survey. Florida, Three Months Out -- Sun Shines on McCain: In an election in critical swing-state Florida for President of the United States today, 08/04/2008, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama, 50% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll pre-election poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa and WKRG-TV Pensacola. Obama leads by 9 points in Southeastern Florida, where he takes 52% of the vote; McCain takes 52% of the vote in Central Florida, 53% in Southwestern Florida, 55% in the northeastern Florida, and 59% in Northwestern Florida. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, who turns 47 years old today, Obama leads by 5 points. Among voters older than John McCain, who turns 72 at the end of the month, McCain leads by 13. Among voters in-between their ages, McCain leads by 14. Among white voters, McCain leads by 19 points. Among black voters, Obama leads by 68. Hispanics favor Obama by 60 points. McCain leads among both men and women, among both college grads and non-college grads, among both those who earn less than $50,000 a year and among those who earn more than $50,000 a year.
This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Florida polls.
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