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Public Policy Polling
Date: 3/18/08
Florida
Added: 3/18/08
Quote: Obama holds only a statistically insignificant 1 point lead over McCain in Florida, with 45 percent of Florida voters favoring Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. Another 11 percent said they were undecided. The poll, taken on the first two days of the Democratic National Convention this week, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Obama, a senator for Illinois, is scheduled to accept the nomination on Thursday. The poll, of 625 likely voters, also showed that Obama�s selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden to be his running mate on the Democratic ticket is not having a large effect on Floridians. Only 14 percent said Biden made them more likely to vote for Obama, while 11 percent said it made them less likely. As for expected Republican nominee McCain, voters in the poll favored Mitt Romney as the Arizona senator�s VP choice. About 50 percent of Republicans said Romney�s choice would make it more likely for them to vote for McCain. Do you view President Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan? (Republicans only) Yes 8% No 71% Undecided 21% Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is performing its job? Approve 11% Disapprove 74% Undecided 15% Do you favor an immediate withdrawal of the United States military forces from Iraq, within the next six months? Yes 40% No 47% Undecided 13% Do you favor or oppose increased exploration and drilling of natural gas off the shores of Florida? Favor 62% Oppose 27% Undecided 11% Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Charlie Crist's job performance? Approve 59% Disapprove 30% Undecided 11% Florida men likely voters back McCain 50 - 41 percent, while women split 45 - 45 percent. White voters back McCain 55 - 35 percent while black voters back Obama 87 - 7 percent. Obama leads 56 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 48 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 52 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 47 - 39 percent, compared to 46 - 41 percent July 31. By a 55 - 32 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 51 - 36 percent for Obama. . Barack Obama leads John McCain 77% to 17% among Democrats (45% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 83% to 9% among Republicans (38% of likely voters). And Obama leads McCain 47% to 45% among independent voters (17% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 51% to 42% among men (48% of likely voters). Among women (52% of likely voters), Obama leads 49% to 44%. McCain leads Obama 55% to 39% among white voters (71% of likely voters). Obama leads McCain 85% to 7% among African American voters (13% of likely voters). And McCain leads Obama 46% to 45% among Hispanic voters (16% of likely voters). Obama leads McCain 49% to 45% among voters age 18 to 49 (44% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (56% of likely voters), McCain leads 49% to 44%. 45% of likely voters say they would never vote for John McCain in the general election, up from 32% in July, and 33% of likely voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the general election, down from 39% in July. McCain regained sizable ground among unaffiliated voters in the new survey. After trailing among unaffiliateds by 23% in July, he has now drawn even with Obama among those voters. McCain earns the vote from 86% of Republicans while 78% of Democrats say they�ll vote for Obama. Nationally, the race between Obama and McCain remains very close in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. As he does nationally, Obama leads McCain among women voters. In Florida, he has a 52% to 41% advantage, roughly comparable to last month. McCain has an even larger spread among men, 51% to 33%. That represents a sizable gain since July. Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John W. Kerry 52% to 47% in the Sunshine State. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state. McCain�s ability to stay competitive in the race with the younger and more charismatic Obama is credited in large part to his championing of offshore oil drilling as one way to offset high gas and oil prices. The majority of voters in Florida, a state which is directly impacted by his position, favor lifting the congressional ban on such drilling. So do most voters nationwide. A plurality of Florida voters (42%) rank economic issues as the most important in the current election cycle, down from 49% in July. For 26%, national security issues are the most important, an increase of seven percentage points in a month. Dramatic turns of event could still spell unexpected trouble or prosperity for either candidate, in Florida or elsewhere. But for now, Obama simply isn�t ginning up quite enough support in Florida to turn all eyes to the state as the �tiebreaker� in November. The likely reason is demographics. Florida doesn�t have as significant a percentage of blacks among its voting population as other big Southern states. Less well known is that it doesn�t have as many young voters either. Georgia, for example, is more stocked with the 18-29 year-olds that have flocked to the job market of Atlanta. And Florida�s young population is diluted as a percentage of the overall voting population by a glut of senior retirees. Another telling take on this poll, and on those of other major pollsters who have felt the pulse of the electorate this summer across the country: The modest percentage of undecided voters � 5% in our poll � may be an indication that the electorate is polarizing into similar partisan patterns as four and eight years ago. This may bode ill for Obama. He has carried his standard based on an appeal to voters who in the past have rejected the Democratic presidential candidate, but who supposedly are eager to jump the GOP ship because of disgust with George W. Bush. It may be that McCain�s storied political independence from his own Republican Party in the past, combined with unease about Obama�s fitness for the presidency, are persuading disaffected Republicans and independents to throw in with him. Obama�s full-court press of media buys in Florida was undoubtedly designed as much to force McCain to spend his comparatively modest resources here instead of elsewhere as it was meant to catapult Obama into the lead. But the strategy possibly could backfire if Obama�s spending spree doesn�t close the gap with McCain soon. Source: http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/story.aspx?sid=516 Men: Obama 32, McCain 49. Women: Obama 46, McCain 37. Obama earns just 76% of the Democratic vote, with the folks in his party supporting McCain disproportionately older white females. �The Democrats crossing over to support John McCain are your prototypical Hillary Clinton supporters,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Barack Obama still has some work to do getting those folks on his side if he wants to have any chance of winning Florida.� The survey also shows tightening among Hispanic voters over the last month. Obama now leads by just three points with them after showing a 14 point advantage in the previous survey. Florida, Three Months Out -- Sun Shines on McCain: In an election in critical swing-state Florida for President of the United States today, 08/04/2008, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama, 50% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll pre-election poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa and WKRG-TV Pensacola. Obama leads by 9 points in Southeastern Florida, where he takes 52% of the vote; McCain takes 52% of the vote in Central Florida, 53% in Southwestern Florida, 55% in the northeastern Florida, and 59% in Northwestern Florida. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, who turns 47 years old today, Obama leads by 5 points. Among voters older than John McCain, who turns 72 at the end of the month, McCain leads by 13. Among voters in-between their ages, McCain leads by 14. Among white voters, McCain leads by 19 points. Among black voters, Obama leads by 68. Hispanics favor Obama by 60 points. McCain leads among both men and women, among both college grads and non-college grads, among both those who earn less than $50,000 a year and among those who earn more than $50,000 a year. Quinnipiac found McCain leading in every region except South Florida. In all-important Tampa Bay, it was McCain 47 percent and Obama 43 percent. Meanwhile, a July 20-28 poll by Fabrizio McLaughlin and Associates for the Florida Chamber of Commerce showed McCain leading in Florida 45 percent to 40 percent. Obama said he's too busy running a 50-state campaign: "We've got to make sure we do these town hall meetings where we're interacting with voters. We've got a lot of ground to cover. � We'll have three debates. I think people are going to see a very sharp contrast." Source: Tampa Bay.com Florida women likely voters back Obama 47 - 42 percent, while men go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. White voters back McCain 53 - 39 percent while black voters back Obama 89 - 2 percent. Obama leads 66 - 27 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain gets 47 percent of voters 35 to 54, to Obama's 45 percent, and leads 51 - 41 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 46 - 41 percent, a shift from 47 - 37 percent for Obama June 18. Looking at the candidates' spouses, Florida voters say 36 - 25 percent that Cindy McCain better fits their idea of a First Lady than Michelle Obama. Women prefer Ms. McCain 34 - 28 percent and men prefer her 38 - 22 percent. A big push for Obama this month in Florida comes from unaffiliated voters. Last month, he had just a three-point lead in this demographic. This month, he leads by twenty-three. Obama leads 50% to 43% among women in Florida, while McCain leads 47% to 41% among men. The Democrat has double-digit leads among voters under 40 years of age, while McCain has a big lead among senior citizens. This month, Obama is viewed favorably by 51% of Florida voters, up from 44% last month. He is viewed unfavorably by 47%, down from 53% last month. McCain�s numbers are 60% favorable, up from 57% last month, and 39% unfavorable, up from 38% last month. Nearly half of voters in Florida (49%) say economic issues are the most important in the upcoming election. Of those voters, 63% choose Obama while just 27% choose McCain. In a very distant second, 19% of voters choose National Security issues as the most important in the Presidential election. Among those voters, McCain has a 79% to 18% advantage. The results of the poll showed that 34% of those polled approved of President Bush�s overall job performance; with 57% disapproving; and 9% undecided. When asked to rate the President�s handling of the economy, 22% approved; 67% disapproved; and 11% were undecided. On the issue of Iraq, the poll found 36% approved of the President�s handling; with 58% disapproving; and 6% undecided. When asked on the President�s handling of the war on terrorism, the poll found that 55% approved, 40% disapproved, and 5% were undecided. �The economy has replaced the war in Iraq as the number one issue for Floridians,� said David E. Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision, LLC. �Voters blame the President for the precarious state of the economy which is reflected in his low poll numbers. The one bright spot for the President is that support for his handling of the war in Iraq has increased.� When Republicans were asked if they viewed President Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan, 10% said yes; 69% said no; and 21% were undecided. Q1 The candidates for President are Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama. If the election was today, who would you vote for? If John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama, press 2. If you�re undecided, press 3. Party unification is the key to Obama�s improved standing in the state. At that time he was getting the support of only 60% of self identified Democrats. In this survey he�s polling at 74% with them, and also leading 45-33 among independent voters. PPP surveys over the last two weeks have shown Obama with leads in the swing states of Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, and now Florida. �It�s a long way until November, but Barack Obama would be looking at an Electoral College landslide if the election was today,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Our polls in Florida and Michigan over the last two weeks have also served as confirmation that controversy over the seating of the two states� delegations at the convention is not causing the Democratic Party any long term issues.� McCain is now viewed favorably by 57% of Florida voters, a figure that has not changed since the previous survey. Obama is viewed favorably by 44%, reflecting a seven point decline in eight days. Even more dramatic is the fact that 40% of Florida voters have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Obama in the June 26 survey. That�s up from 29% eight days earlier before the debate over offshore drilling escalated. Eighteen percent (18%) of Florida voters now have a Very Unfavorable opinion of McCain, down from 21% in the previous survey. McCain leads by seventeen points among men but trails by two among women. Obama has a huge lead among voters under 30 while McCain leads among those 30 and older. McCain is supported by 85% of Republicans while Obama earns the vote from 71% of Democrats. Unaffiliated voters are fairly evenly divided. Nearly two weeks ago, McCain startled the political world by calling for offshore oil drilling, a position that was assumed to be unpopular in the key state of Florida. Since that time, both McCain and Obama have actively addressed the issue. The Democrat has made it clear that he opposes offshore drilling and doesn�t believe it will bring down the price of gas and oil. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Florida voters favor offshore drilling while 32% are opposed. Eighty-three percent (83%) of Republicans favor offshore drilling and unaffiliated voters favor it by a 54% to 34% margin. Democrats are more evenly divided�38% favor drilling while 50% are opposed. Nationally, support for drilling is also at 59%. Over the past couple of weeks, Obama has persuaded some Democrats to oppose the concept but had no measurable impact on Republicans and unaffiliated voters. Fifty-five percent (55%) of Florida voters say it�s likely that offshore drilling will reduce the price of gas and oil while 39% disagree. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 3/16/08
Florida
Added: 3/16/08
Quote: Obama holds only a statistically insignificant 1 point lead over McCain in Florida, with 45 percent of Florida voters favoring Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. Another 11 percent said they were undecided. The poll, taken on the first two days of the Democratic National Convention this week, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Obama, a senator for Illinois, is scheduled to accept the nomination on Thursday. The poll, of 625 likely voters, also showed that Obama�s selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden to be his running mate on the Democratic ticket is not having a large effect on Floridians. Only 14 percent said Biden made them more likely to vote for Obama, while 11 percent said it made them less likely. As for expected Republican nominee McCain, voters in the poll favored Mitt Romney as the Arizona senator�s VP choice. About 50 percent of Republicans said Romney�s choice would make it more likely for them to vote for McCain. Do you view President Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan? (Republicans only) Yes 8% No 71% Undecided 21% Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is performing its job? Approve 11% Disapprove 74% Undecided 15% Do you favor an immediate withdrawal of the United States military forces from Iraq, within the next six months? Yes 40% No 47% Undecided 13% Do you favor or oppose increased exploration and drilling of natural gas off the shores of Florida? Favor 62% Oppose 27% Undecided 11% Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Charlie Crist's job performance? Approve 59% Disapprove 30% Undecided 11% Florida men likely voters back McCain 50 - 41 percent, while women split 45 - 45 percent. White voters back McCain 55 - 35 percent while black voters back Obama 87 - 7 percent. Obama leads 56 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 48 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 52 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 47 - 39 percent, compared to 46 - 41 percent July 31. By a 55 - 32 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 51 - 36 percent for Obama. . Barack Obama leads John McCain 77% to 17% among Democrats (45% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 83% to 9% among Republicans (38% of likely voters). And Obama leads McCain 47% to 45% among independent voters (17% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 51% to 42% among men (48% of likely voters). Among women (52% of likely voters), Obama leads 49% to 44%. McCain leads Obama 55% to 39% among white voters (71% of likely voters). Obama leads McCain 85% to 7% among African American voters (13% of likely voters). And McCain leads Obama 46% to 45% among Hispanic voters (16% of likely voters). Obama leads McCain 49% to 45% among voters age 18 to 49 (44% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (56% of likely voters), McCain leads 49% to 44%. 45% of likely voters say they would never vote for John McCain in the general election, up from 32% in July, and 33% of likely voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the general election, down from 39% in July. McCain regained sizable ground among unaffiliated voters in the new survey. After trailing among unaffiliateds by 23% in July, he has now drawn even with Obama among those voters. McCain earns the vote from 86% of Republicans while 78% of Democrats say they�ll vote for Obama. Nationally, the race between Obama and McCain remains very close in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. As he does nationally, Obama leads McCain among women voters. In Florida, he has a 52% to 41% advantage, roughly comparable to last month. McCain has an even larger spread among men, 51% to 33%. That represents a sizable gain since July. Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John W. Kerry 52% to 47% in the Sunshine State. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state. McCain�s ability to stay competitive in the race with the younger and more charismatic Obama is credited in large part to his championing of offshore oil drilling as one way to offset high gas and oil prices. The majority of voters in Florida, a state which is directly impacted by his position, favor lifting the congressional ban on such drilling. So do most voters nationwide. A plurality of Florida voters (42%) rank economic issues as the most important in the current election cycle, down from 49% in July. For 26%, national security issues are the most important, an increase of seven percentage points in a month. Dramatic turns of event could still spell unexpected trouble or prosperity for either candidate, in Florida or elsewhere. But for now, Obama simply isn�t ginning up quite enough support in Florida to turn all eyes to the state as the �tiebreaker� in November. The likely reason is demographics. Florida doesn�t have as significant a percentage of blacks among its voting population as other big Southern states. Less well known is that it doesn�t have as many young voters either. Georgia, for example, is more stocked with the 18-29 year-olds that have flocked to the job market of Atlanta. And Florida�s young population is diluted as a percentage of the overall voting population by a glut of senior retirees. Another telling take on this poll, and on those of other major pollsters who have felt the pulse of the electorate this summer across the country: The modest percentage of undecided voters � 5% in our poll � may be an indication that the electorate is polarizing into similar partisan patterns as four and eight years ago. This may bode ill for Obama. He has carried his standard based on an appeal to voters who in the past have rejected the Democratic presidential candidate, but who supposedly are eager to jump the GOP ship because of disgust with George W. Bush. It may be that McCain�s storied political independence from his own Republican Party in the past, combined with unease about Obama�s fitness for the presidency, are persuading disaffected Republicans and independents to throw in with him. Obama�s full-court press of media buys in Florida was undoubtedly designed as much to force McCain to spend his comparatively modest resources here instead of elsewhere as it was meant to catapult Obama into the lead. But the strategy possibly could backfire if Obama�s spending spree doesn�t close the gap with McCain soon. Source: http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/story.aspx?sid=516 Men: Obama 32, McCain 49. Women: Obama 46, McCain 37. Obama earns just 76% of the Democratic vote, with the folks in his party supporting McCain disproportionately older white females. �The Democrats crossing over to support John McCain are your prototypical Hillary Clinton supporters,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Barack Obama still has some work to do getting those folks on his side if he wants to have any chance of winning Florida.� The survey also shows tightening among Hispanic voters over the last month. Obama now leads by just three points with them after showing a 14 point advantage in the previous survey. Florida, Three Months Out -- Sun Shines on McCain: In an election in critical swing-state Florida for President of the United States today, 08/04/2008, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama, 50% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll pre-election poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa and WKRG-TV Pensacola. Obama leads by 9 points in Southeastern Florida, where he takes 52% of the vote; McCain takes 52% of the vote in Central Florida, 53% in Southwestern Florida, 55% in the northeastern Florida, and 59% in Northwestern Florida. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, who turns 47 years old today, Obama leads by 5 points. Among voters older than John McCain, who turns 72 at the end of the month, McCain leads by 13. Among voters in-between their ages, McCain leads by 14. Among white voters, McCain leads by 19 points. Among black voters, Obama leads by 68. Hispanics favor Obama by 60 points. McCain leads among both men and women, among both college grads and non-college grads, among both those who earn less than $50,000 a year and among those who earn more than $50,000 a year. Quinnipiac found McCain leading in every region except South Florida. In all-important Tampa Bay, it was McCain 47 percent and Obama 43 percent. Meanwhile, a July 20-28 poll by Fabrizio McLaughlin and Associates for the Florida Chamber of Commerce showed McCain leading in Florida 45 percent to 40 percent. Obama said he's too busy running a 50-state campaign: "We've got to make sure we do these town hall meetings where we're interacting with voters. We've got a lot of ground to cover. � We'll have three debates. I think people are going to see a very sharp contrast." Source: Tampa Bay.com Florida women likely voters back Obama 47 - 42 percent, while men go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. White voters back McCain 53 - 39 percent while black voters back Obama 89 - 2 percent. Obama leads 66 - 27 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain gets 47 percent of voters 35 to 54, to Obama's 45 percent, and leads 51 - 41 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 46 - 41 percent, a shift from 47 - 37 percent for Obama June 18. Looking at the candidates' spouses, Florida voters say 36 - 25 percent that Cindy McCain better fits their idea of a First Lady than Michelle Obama. Women prefer Ms. McCain 34 - 28 percent and men prefer her 38 - 22 percent. A big push for Obama this month in Florida comes from unaffiliated voters. Last month, he had just a three-point lead in this demographic. This month, he leads by twenty-three. Obama leads 50% to 43% among women in Florida, while McCain leads 47% to 41% among men. The Democrat has double-digit leads among voters under 40 years of age, while McCain has a big lead among senior citizens. This month, Obama is viewed favorably by 51% of Florida voters, up from 44% last month. He is viewed unfavorably by 47%, down from 53% last month. McCain�s numbers are 60% favorable, up from 57% last month, and 39% unfavorable, up from 38% last month. Nearly half of voters in Florida (49%) say economic issues are the most important in the upcoming election. Of those voters, 63% choose Obama while just 27% choose McCain. In a very distant second, 19% of voters choose National Security issues as the most important in the Presidential election. Among those voters, McCain has a 79% to 18% advantage. The results of the poll showed that 34% of those polled approved of President Bush�s overall job performance; with 57% disapproving; and 9% undecided. When asked to rate the President�s handling of the economy, 22% approved; 67% disapproved; and 11% were undecided. On the issue of Iraq, the poll found 36% approved of the President�s handling; with 58% disapproving; and 6% undecided. When asked on the President�s handling of the war on terrorism, the poll found that 55% approved, 40% disapproved, and 5% were undecided. �The economy has replaced the war in Iraq as the number one issue for Floridians,� said David E. Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision, LLC. �Voters blame the President for the precarious state of the economy which is reflected in his low poll numbers. The one bright spot for the President is that support for his handling of the war in Iraq has increased.� When Republicans were asked if they viewed President Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan, 10% said yes; 69% said no; and 21% were undecided. Q1 The candidates for President are Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama. If the election was today, who would you vote for? If John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama, press 2. If you�re undecided, press 3. Party unification is the key to Obama�s improved standing in the state. At that time he was getting the support of only 60% of self identified Democrats. In this survey he�s polling at 74% with them, and also leading 45-33 among independent voters. PPP surveys over the last two weeks have shown Obama with leads in the swing states of Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, and now Florida. �It�s a long way until November, but Barack Obama would be looking at an Electoral College landslide if the election was today,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Our polls in Florida and Michigan over the last two weeks have also served as confirmation that controversy over the seating of the two states� delegations at the convention is not causing the Democratic Party any long term issues.� McCain is now viewed favorably by 57% of Florida voters, a figure that has not changed since the previous survey. Obama is viewed favorably by 44%, reflecting a seven point decline in eight days. Even more dramatic is the fact that 40% of Florida voters have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Obama in the June 26 survey. That�s up from 29% eight days earlier before the debate over offshore drilling escalated. Eighteen percent (18%) of Florida voters now have a Very Unfavorable opinion of McCain, down from 21% in the previous survey. McCain leads by seventeen points among men but trails by two among women. Obama has a huge lead among voters under 30 while McCain leads among those 30 and older. McCain is supported by 85% of Republicans while Obama earns the vote from 71% of Democrats. Unaffiliated voters are fairly evenly divided. Nearly two weeks ago, McCain startled the political world by calling for offshore oil drilling, a position that was assumed to be unpopular in the key state of Florida. Since that time, both McCain and Obama have actively addressed the issue. The Democrat has made it clear that he opposes offshore drilling and doesn�t believe it will bring down the price of gas and oil. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Florida voters favor offshore drilling while 32% are opposed. Eighty-three percent (83%) of Republicans favor offshore drilling and unaffiliated voters favor it by a 54% to 34% margin. Democrats are more evenly divided�38% favor drilling while 50% are opposed. Nationally, support for drilling is also at 59%. Over the past couple of weeks, Obama has persuaded some Democrats to oppose the concept but had no measurable impact on Republicans and unaffiliated voters. Fifty-five percent (55%) of Florida voters say it�s likely that offshore drilling will reduce the price of gas and oil while 39% disagree. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Survey USA Poll
Date: 3/6/08
Florida
Added: 3/6/08
Quote: Obama holds only a statistically insignificant 1 point lead over McCain in Florida, with 45 percent of Florida voters favoring Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. Another 11 percent said they were undecided. The poll, taken on the first two days of the Democratic National Convention this week, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Obama, a senator for Illinois, is scheduled to accept the nomination on Thursday. The poll, of 625 likely voters, also showed that Obama�s selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden to be his running mate on the Democratic ticket is not having a large effect on Floridians. Only 14 percent said Biden made them more likely to vote for Obama, while 11 percent said it made them less likely. As for expected Republican nominee McCain, voters in the poll favored Mitt Romney as the Arizona senator�s VP choice. About 50 percent of Republicans said Romney�s choice would make it more likely for them to vote for McCain. Do you view President Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan? (Republicans only) Yes 8% No 71% Undecided 21% Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is performing its job? Approve 11% Disapprove 74% Undecided 15% Do you favor an immediate withdrawal of the United States military forces from Iraq, within the next six months? Yes 40% No 47% Undecided 13% Do you favor or oppose increased exploration and drilling of natural gas off the shores of Florida? Favor 62% Oppose 27% Undecided 11% Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Charlie Crist's job performance? Approve 59% Disapprove 30% Undecided 11% Florida men likely voters back McCain 50 - 41 percent, while women split 45 - 45 percent. White voters back McCain 55 - 35 percent while black voters back Obama 87 - 7 percent. Obama leads 56 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 48 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 52 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 47 - 39 percent, compared to 46 - 41 percent July 31. By a 55 - 32 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 51 - 36 percent for Obama. . Barack Obama leads John McCain 77% to 17% among Democrats (45% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 83% to 9% among Republicans (38% of likely voters). And Obama leads McCain 47% to 45% among independent voters (17% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 51% to 42% among men (48% of likely voters). Among women (52% of likely voters), Obama leads 49% to 44%. McCain leads Obama 55% to 39% among white voters (71% of likely voters). Obama leads McCain 85% to 7% among African American voters (13% of likely voters). And McCain leads Obama 46% to 45% among Hispanic voters (16% of likely voters). Obama leads McCain 49% to 45% among voters age 18 to 49 (44% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (56% of likely voters), McCain leads 49% to 44%. 45% of likely voters say they would never vote for John McCain in the general election, up from 32% in July, and 33% of likely voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the general election, down from 39% in July. McCain regained sizable ground among unaffiliated voters in the new survey. After trailing among unaffiliateds by 23% in July, he has now drawn even with Obama among those voters. McCain earns the vote from 86% of Republicans while 78% of Democrats say they�ll vote for Obama. Nationally, the race between Obama and McCain remains very close in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. As he does nationally, Obama leads McCain among women voters. In Florida, he has a 52% to 41% advantage, roughly comparable to last month. McCain has an even larger spread among men, 51% to 33%. That represents a sizable gain since July. Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John W. Kerry 52% to 47% in the Sunshine State. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state. McCain�s ability to stay competitive in the race with the younger and more charismatic Obama is credited in large part to his championing of offshore oil drilling as one way to offset high gas and oil prices. The majority of voters in Florida, a state which is directly impacted by his position, favor lifting the congressional ban on such drilling. So do most voters nationwide. A plurality of Florida voters (42%) rank economic issues as the most important in the current election cycle, down from 49% in July. For 26%, national security issues are the most important, an increase of seven percentage points in a month. Dramatic turns of event could still spell unexpected trouble or prosperity for either candidate, in Florida or elsewhere. But for now, Obama simply isn�t ginning up quite enough support in Florida to turn all eyes to the state as the �tiebreaker� in November. The likely reason is demographics. Florida doesn�t have as significant a percentage of blacks among its voting population as other big Southern states. Less well known is that it doesn�t have as many young voters either. Georgia, for example, is more stocked with the 18-29 year-olds that have flocked to the job market of Atlanta. And Florida�s young population is diluted as a percentage of the overall voting population by a glut of senior retirees. Another telling take on this poll, and on those of other major pollsters who have felt the pulse of the electorate this summer across the country: The modest percentage of undecided voters � 5% in our poll � may be an indication that the electorate is polarizing into similar partisan patterns as four and eight years ago. This may bode ill for Obama. He has carried his standard based on an appeal to voters who in the past have rejected the Democratic presidential candidate, but who supposedly are eager to jump the GOP ship because of disgust with George W. Bush. It may be that McCain�s storied political independence from his own Republican Party in the past, combined with unease about Obama�s fitness for the presidency, are persuading disaffected Republicans and independents to throw in with him. Obama�s full-court press of media buys in Florida was undoubtedly designed as much to force McCain to spend his comparatively modest resources here instead of elsewhere as it was meant to catapult Obama into the lead. But the strategy possibly could backfire if Obama�s spending spree doesn�t close the gap with McCain soon. Source: http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/story.aspx?sid=516 Men: Obama 32, McCain 49. Women: Obama 46, McCain 37. Obama earns just 76% of the Democratic vote, with the folks in his party supporting McCain disproportionately older white females. �The Democrats crossing over to support John McCain are your prototypical Hillary Clinton supporters,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Barack Obama still has some work to do getting those folks on his side if he wants to have any chance of winning Florida.� The survey also shows tightening among Hispanic voters over the last month. Obama now leads by just three points with them after showing a 14 point advantage in the previous survey. Florida, Three Months Out -- Sun Shines on McCain: In an election in critical swing-state Florida for President of the United States today, 08/04/2008, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama, 50% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll pre-election poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa and WKRG-TV Pensacola. Obama leads by 9 points in Southeastern Florida, where he takes 52% of the vote; McCain takes 52% of the vote in Central Florida, 53% in Southwestern Florida, 55% in the northeastern Florida, and 59% in Northwestern Florida. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, who turns 47 years old today, Obama leads by 5 points. Among voters older than John McCain, who turns 72 at the end of the month, McCain leads by 13. Among voters in-between their ages, McCain leads by 14. Among white voters, McCain leads by 19 points. Among black voters, Obama leads by 68. Hispanics favor Obama by 60 points. McCain leads among both men and women, among both college grads and non-college grads, among both those who earn less than $50,000 a year and among those who earn more than $50,000 a year. Quinnipiac found McCain leading in every region except South Florida. In all-important Tampa Bay, it was McCain 47 percent and Obama 43 percent. Meanwhile, a July 20-28 poll by Fabrizio McLaughlin and Associates for the Florida Chamber of Commerce showed McCain leading in Florida 45 percent to 40 percent. Obama said he's too busy running a 50-state campaign: "We've got to make sure we do these town hall meetings where we're interacting with voters. We've got a lot of ground to cover. � We'll have three debates. I think people are going to see a very sharp contrast." Source: Tampa Bay.com Florida women likely voters back Obama 47 - 42 percent, while men go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. White voters back McCain 53 - 39 percent while black voters back Obama 89 - 2 percent. Obama leads 66 - 27 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain gets 47 percent of voters 35 to 54, to Obama's 45 percent, and leads 51 - 41 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 46 - 41 percent, a shift from 47 - 37 percent for Obama June 18. Looking at the candidates' spouses, Florida voters say 36 - 25 percent that Cindy McCain better fits their idea of a First Lady than Michelle Obama. Women prefer Ms. McCain 34 - 28 percent and men prefer her 38 - 22 percent. A big push for Obama this month in Florida comes from unaffiliated voters. Last month, he had just a three-point lead in this demographic. This month, he leads by twenty-three. Obama leads 50% to 43% among women in Florida, while McCain leads 47% to 41% among men. The Democrat has double-digit leads among voters under 40 years of age, while McCain has a big lead among senior citizens. This month, Obama is viewed favorably by 51% of Florida voters, up from 44% last month. He is viewed unfavorably by 47%, down from 53% last month. McCain�s numbers are 60% favorable, up from 57% last month, and 39% unfavorable, up from 38% last month. Nearly half of voters in Florida (49%) say economic issues are the most important in the upcoming election. Of those voters, 63% choose Obama while just 27% choose McCain. In a very distant second, 19% of voters choose National Security issues as the most important in the Presidential election. Among those voters, McCain has a 79% to 18% advantage. The results of the poll showed that 34% of those polled approved of President Bush�s overall job performance; with 57% disapproving; and 9% undecided. When asked to rate the President�s handling of the economy, 22% approved; 67% disapproved; and 11% were undecided. On the issue of Iraq, the poll found 36% approved of the President�s handling; with 58% disapproving; and 6% undecided. When asked on the President�s handling of the war on terrorism, the poll found that 55% approved, 40% disapproved, and 5% were undecided. �The economy has replaced the war in Iraq as the number one issue for Floridians,� said David E. Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision, LLC. �Voters blame the President for the precarious state of the economy which is reflected in his low poll numbers. The one bright spot for the President is that support for his handling of the war in Iraq has increased.� When Republicans were asked if they viewed President Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan, 10% said yes; 69% said no; and 21% were undecided. Q1 The candidates for President are Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama. If the election was today, who would you vote for? If John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama, press 2. If you�re undecided, press 3. Party unification is the key to Obama�s improved standing in the state. At that time he was getting the support of only 60% of self identified Democrats. In this survey he�s polling at 74% with them, and also leading 45-33 among independent voters. PPP surveys over the last two weeks have shown Obama with leads in the swing states of Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, and now Florida. �It�s a long way until November, but Barack Obama would be looking at an Electoral College landslide if the election was today,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Our polls in Florida and Michigan over the last two weeks have also served as confirmation that controversy over the seating of the two states� delegations at the convention is not causing the Democratic Party any long term issues.� McCain is now viewed favorably by 57% of Florida voters, a figure that has not changed since the previous survey. Obama is viewed favorably by 44%, reflecting a seven point decline in eight days. Even more dramatic is the fact that 40% of Florida voters have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Obama in the June 26 survey. That�s up from 29% eight days earlier before the debate over offshore drilling escalated. Eighteen percent (18%) of Florida voters now have a Very Unfavorable opinion of McCain, down from 21% in the previous survey. McCain leads by seventeen points among men but trails by two among women. Obama has a huge lead among voters under 30 while McCain leads among those 30 and older. McCain is supported by 85% of Republicans while Obama earns the vote from 71% of Democrats. Unaffiliated voters are fairly evenly divided. Nearly two weeks ago, McCain startled the political world by calling for offshore oil drilling, a position that was assumed to be unpopular in the key state of Florida. Since that time, both McCain and Obama have actively addressed the issue. The Democrat has made it clear that he opposes offshore drilling and doesn�t believe it will bring down the price of gas and oil. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Florida voters favor offshore drilling while 32% are opposed. Eighty-three percent (83%) of Republicans favor offshore drilling and unaffiliated voters favor it by a 54% to 34% margin. Democrats are more evenly divided�38% favor drilling while 50% are opposed. Nationally, support for drilling is also at 59%. Over the past couple of weeks, Obama has persuaded some Democrats to oppose the concept but had no measurable impact on Republicans and unaffiliated voters. Fifty-five percent (55%) of Florida voters say it�s likely that offshore drilling will reduce the price of gas and oil while 39% disagree. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Florida polls.
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