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Primaries 2012: Primary Polls
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Primaries 2004: Primary Polls
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Democrat Polls
Quinnipiac University
Date: 10/27-11/2
Florida
Added: 11/3/08
Quote: Obama leads 51 - 38 percent among Florida voters who already have cast their ballot. Among all Florida likely voters, men go to McCain 49 - 45 percent and women back Obama 49 - 43 percent. White voters go Republican 52 - 40 percent, as do evangelical Christians 71 - 23 percent, and Catholics 55 - 38 percent. Jews back Obama 69 - 26 percent. Independent voters back Obama 49 - 39 percent. v By a 52 - 41 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 56 - 38 percent for McCain. Gov. Palin gets a 47 - 42 percent favorability. Sen. Joe Biden, the Democratic running mate, gets a 50 - 35 percent favorability. The economy is the most important election issue, 54 percent of Florida voters say. Obama would be more effective than McCain working with Congress on the economic crisis, voters say 49 - 43 percent. Criticism that McCain is too closely tied to President Bush is more harmful than criticism of his selection of Palin, voters say 58 - 27 percent, with 11 percent who say neither is harmful. Criticism of Obama as too liberal is more harmful than criticism that he is too inexperienced, voters say 40 - 36 percent, with 18 percent saying neither is harmful. "The gender gap is what is keeping Sen. Obama slightly ahead in Florida. He is winning women by barely more than Sen. McCain is winning men. One potentially favorable omen for Sen. McCain's potential to pull ahead is that Florida voters view him a tad more favorably and a little bit less unfavorably than they do Sen. Obama," Brown said.
Datamar
Date: 10/29-30
Florida
Added: 11/1/08
Quote: A statewide poll of Florida voters for the 2008 Presidential General Election released today by Datamar Inc., shows that U.S. Senator Barack Obama and Arizona Senator John McCain are in a tie. Senator McCain has gained 2.3% and Senator Obama has lost 2.5% from the previous survey of October 26. Senator McCain has shown a steady improvement over a period of three weeks, with each week gaining over 2%. The findings are based on an October 29 � 30, 2008 survey of Florida voters.
Mason Dixon
Date: 10/29-30
Florida
Added: 11/1/08
Quote: �The state remains a toss-up, which is bad news for McCain as he must win Florida to have any chance of winning the presidency,� said Mason-Dixon managing director Brad Coker. �His best hope could be the racial composition of Florida�s �undecided� voters, of whom, 84 percent are white.� Obama�s mini-surge comes on the heels of a media blitz in which he outspent McCain on television advertising in Florida $4.6 million to $1.6 million during the week of Sept. 28 to Oct. 4, according to a University of Wisconsin study. That does not reflect, however, an additional $1.4 million the Republican National Committee spent on McCain ads during the same period. Obama�s lead is due, at least in part, to a backlash against McCain�s attack ads, said Obama spokesman Kevin Cate. �Floridians are rejecting the McCain campaign�s desperate attacks and attempts to change the subject away from the economy and Florida is now the battleground that the McCain campaign never wanted or anticipated,� Cate said. The poll has Obama and McCain dead even -- at 46 percent each -- in the bellwether Tampa Bay region, which consistently goes for the winner. Republican Party of Florida spokeswoman Erin VanSickle said the poll shows that McCain�s conservative message is resonating, despite Obama�s huge spending advantage. �We�ve always said that Florida will be a crucial state in this election and the constantly fluctuating polls illustrate just that,� VanSickle said. �Our Republican grassroots machine is running strong, our volunteers are excited, and we are confident that the people of Florida will continue to embrace John McCain�s message of reform and leadership and reject Barack Obama�s plans to spread the wealth and take more dollars out of Floridians� pockets.�
American Research Group
Date: 10/29-31
Florida
Added: 11/1/08
National Journal FD
Date: 10/23-27
Florida
Added: 10/30/08
CNN TIME
Date: 10/23-28
Florida
Added: 10/30/08
Quote: Both McCain and Obama, campaigning in Florida Wednesday, are fighting hard to win the state's 27 electoral votes. The poll indicates Obama holds a small 4-point edge, 51 percent to 47 percent. Bush carried Florida by 5 points as he won re-election as president in 2004.
Quinnipiac University
Date: 10/22-26
Florida
Added: 10/29/08
Quote: Among those who say they already have voted in Florida, Obama leads 58 - 34 percent. Looking at all Florida likely voters, men go to McCain 49 - 44 percent. Women back Obama 50 - 42 percent. The Republican leads 53 - 40 percent among white voters, 72 - 21 percent among evangelical Christians and 53 - 42 percent among Catholics. The Democrat leads 75 - 20 percent among Jews and 56 - 39 percent among voters 18 - 34 years old. Voters 35 to 54 split 46 - 46 percent, and voters over 55 go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. Independent voters back Obama 47 - 39 percent. By a 53 - 37 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 55 - 38 percent for McCain. Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, gets a 44 - 41 percent favorability. Sen. Joe Biden, the Democratic running mate, gets a 50 - 29 percent favorability. The economy is the most important election issue, 59 percent of Florida voters say. "The reason Sen. McCain is doing better in Florida than some other key states is his strength among white voters without college degrees. He leads Sen. Obama by 18 points among that group in Florida, but is neck and neck with him among such voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania," Brown said.
Associated Press GFK
Date: 10/22-26
Florida
Added: 10/29/08
LA Times Bloomberg
Date: 10/25-27
Florida
Added: 10/28/08
Quote: Florida registers by party and there are slightly more voters registered as Democrats than there are Republicans -- 41% to 37%, but 19% are independents. Three percent said they are registered in a minor party. So far, over two million voters have already voted for their candidate in the Sunshine State. There is good news for both candidates among those who voted early � some of the demographic groups appear to be benefitting both candidates. They are: More Democratic and Republican, less independents, women, older voters, voters with a college degree or more, households with less than $40,000, white households with earnings less than $50,000, conservatives, conservative Republicans, voters who think of themselves as part of the religious right, and voters living in the northern part of the state (which is heavily Republican). The uncommitted voters are declining as we get closer to the election. Eight percent of likely voters (9% of registered voters) said they were either still undecided about voting for a candidate or they may change their mind and vote for someone else. More than nine out of ten voters are certain they are going to vote for their candidate and more than nine out of 10 Obama and McCain supporters are certain of their candidate. The vote: Among likely voters living in Florida, 50% are backing Obama, while 43% are supporting McCain. (Among registered voters, it is 50% to 42%). When all five candidates were mentioned, Obama takes an 11 point lead among likely voters and an eight point lead among registered voters.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 10/26
Florida
Added: 10/28/08
Quote: This is the fourth time in five weeks that Obama has held a single digit lead over McCain. Last week was the exception with McCain up by a single point. McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of the state�s voters, Obama by 55%. Fifty-three percent (53%) of Florida voters say that the economy is the most important issue of Election 2008. Fifty-two percent (52%) trust Obama more on this issue while 46% trust McCain. In terms of the candidates, 38% say they�re most interested in someone who can bring about the needed change. Twenty-three percent (23%) say they�re looking for someone with the right experience and 20% are looking for a candidate who shares their values. Democrats are most concerned about someone who can bring about change while Republicans are more concerned with a candidate who has the right experience. Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John Kerry 52% to 47%. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state.
Reuters Zogby
Date: 10/23-26
Florida
Added: 10/27/08
Quote: McCain is winning 16% of Democrats compared to Obama's 10% with Republicans. That is enough to offset Obama's 64%-25% lead with Independents. McCain's favorable showing with Democrats is reflected in his 55%-38% lead among those over 65. Whites choose McCain by 17, while Hispanics favor Obama by 16. Maximizing African-American turnout will be the key to a possible Obama win.
Strategic Vision
Date: 10/20-22
Florida
Added: 10/24/08
Quote: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama? Favorable 49% Unfavorable 40% Undecided 11% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joseph Biden? Favorable 45% Unfavorable 41% Undecided 14% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John McCain? Favorable 48% Unfavorable 42% Undecided 10% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin? Favorable 49% Unfavorable 38% Undecided 13% Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the economy, Barack Obama or John McCain? Barack Obama 51% John McCain 41% Undecided 8% Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the war in Iraq, Barack Obama or John McCain? John McCain 49% Barack Obama 40% Undecided 11%
Insider Advantage for Politico
Date: 10/22
Florida
Added: 10/24/08
Quote: In Florida, the statewide survey shows Obama with a one-point lead, with 48 percent of poll respondents naming him as their choice for president, compared with 47 percent who chose McCain.
St Petersburg Times Bay News Miami Herald
Date: 10/20-22
Florida
Added: 10/24/08
Quote: "Right now this election is about independents � independents and the economy,�� said pollster Tom Eldon. "Obama is clearly establishing himself as the candidate of the independents.�� At a time when economic anxiety trumps all issues in Florida, about half of the voters surveyed � and almost 6 in 10 independents � said Obama has a better plan to improve the economy, while one in three voters say McCain does. Forty-five percent said Obama has shown the most leadership on the economy, and 34 percent said McCain. �The predominant color in Florida right now is neither blue nor red, it�s green,� said pollster Kellyanne Conway. �The financial concerns, money concerns, dominate voters� calculus.�� Conway, who�s company works mostly with Republicans, questioned the effectiveness of McCain�s recent campaign strategy. "Trying to connect Barack Obama to Bill Ayers, rather than connect McCain to the average voter in the economy has ... been dubious,�� she said, referring to the 1960s radical Obama knows.
Quinnipiac University
Date: 10/16-21
Florida
Added: 10/23/08
NBC Mason Dixon
Date: 10/20-21
Florida
Added: 10/23/08
Rasmussen Reports for FOX News
Date: 10/19
Florida
Added: 10/20/08
Quote: Eighty-five percent (85%) of Florida voters say they are certain who they will vote for in November, while just 15% say there is good chance they can still change their minds. McCain is viewed favorably by 58% and unfavorably by 41%. Obama�s numbers in Florida are 53% favorable, 45% unfavorable. While voters trust McCain more than Obama overall by a 47% to 45% margin, the candidates are tied at 47% when it comes to trust on the top issue of the economy and jobs. McCain still has the edge on national security, 55% to 41%. Nearly half of Florida voters (49%) believe Obama does not have the right experience to be president, while 41% say he does have the right experience. However, more than a third (34%) of voters says they would be extremely comfortable with him in office, while 38% say they would not be comfortable at all. Most voters in Florida (68%) think McCain does have the right experience for the job, compared to just 20% who believe the opposite. Still, just 28% say they would be extremely comfortable with McCain in office, while 31% say they would not be comfortable at all. Though both candidates have promised to bring real change to Washington, 40% of Florida voters say only Obama is capable of following through on that promise, while just 29% say that of McCain. Another 18% say both of them are capable of bringing real change to the Capitol, while just 9% say neither candidate can.
Research 2000 for Sun Sentinel
Date: 10/13-15
Florida
Added: 10/17/08
Quote: Twenty-one percent of respondents said GOP attacks of Democrat Barack Obama's relationship to Ayers, a Vietnam activist linked to a group that bombed buildings decades ago, made them less likely to vote for McCain. Another 67 percent said they were unaffected. Five percent of respondents said they were less likely to vote for Obama because of the Democrats' attacks on McCain's link to Keating, a prominent figure in the savings-and-loan scandal that cost thousands of people their life savings in the 1980s. Another 89 percent said they were unaffected. Jennie Walker, 56, an Arlington housewife, said she wishes both campaigns would drop the negativity. "I'm embarrassed by the fact that they even use it. I know so much of it is not true, so I don't give it any weight," Walker said. With the economy tanking and major foreign policy decisions afoot in Iraq and Pakistan, Walker represents the modern-day voter. "There are some elections where spin matters, but I don't think this is one of them," said Darrell M. West, a Brookings Institution analyst and author of the election advertising guide Air Wars. "People are much more worried about their 401(k) than they are about Bill Ayers." It's typical for voters to say they're unaffected, but a negative campaign ad can serve as a Pandora's box. "If it gets people's attention, it works," said Matthew Corrigan, political science chair at the University of North Florida.
Survey USA
Date: 10/16
Florida
Added: 10/17/08
Quote: FL Women Drift To Obama, FL Men Drift to McCain, But Overall, Sunshine State Stays Steady in SurveyUSA Tracking: In an election for President of the United States in Florida today, 10/17/08, absentee balloting underway and early voting about to begin, Republican John McCain edges Democrat Barack Obama 49% to 47%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV Tampa, WFOR-TV Miami, WKRG-TV Mobile-Pensacola, and WFTX-TV Cape Coral. The outcome is within the survey's margin of sampling error. Both candidates have an excellent chance to carry the state. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll 3 weeks ago, almost nothing has changed in the Florida data, at a time when the world has changed profoundly. Then, the Dow Jones was at 11,143. Today: 20% lower. Banks have failed, insurance companies have been nationalized. But smooth sailing on the Florida poll tracking graphs. True: men have swung 9 points to McCain since SurveyUSA's last poll; women have swung an offsetting 8 points to Obama. But most other demographic groups in Florida are stable. Voters younger than Obama: stable. Voters older than McCain: stable. Whites: stable. Hispanics: stable. Moderates: stable. Independents: stable. More-educated voters: stable. Less-educated voters: stable. Pro-life voters: stable. Pro-choice voters: stable. There is slight movement to McCain in Southeast Florida, which includes Miami and Fort Lauderdale. There is offsetting movement to Obama in Central Florida, which includes Orlando, and in Southwest Florida, which includes Tampa. Unique to Florida, and unlike other states that SurveyUSA is polling: those in Florida who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted disproportionately back McCain. The sample size is small, so caution is warranted, but unlike SurveyUSA findings in Ohio, New Mexico, Georgia, Iowa, and North Carolina, where early voters disproportionately favor Obama, in Florida, McCain leads by 8 among those who have already voted, and is tied among those who have not yet cast a ballot but who are determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to do so. In 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to August, Obama has never led in Florida. 14 separate research firms are polling in Florida. The last 10 surveys released by other pollsters all show Barack Obama ahead by 1 to 8 percentage points.
CNN/TIME
Date: 10/11-14
Florida
Added: 10/15/08
Insider Advantage
Date: 10/13
Florida
Added: 10/15/08
Rasmussen Reports for FOX News
Date: 10/12
Florida
Added: 10/14/08
Quote: In Florida, it�s Obama 51%, McCain 46%. That�s a bit closer than last week when Obama enjoyed a seven-percentage point lead. But, as recently as mid-September, McCain had been leading by five. This is the second straight week that Obama has been over the 50% mark in Florida. McCain has not topped 47% in any of the last three Florida Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polls.
Research 2000 for Sun Sentinel
Date: 10/6-8
Florida
Added: 10/11/08
Strategic Vision
Date: 10/6-8
Florida
Added: 10/10/08
Quote: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama? Favorable 52% Unfavorable 37% Undecided 11% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joseph Biden? Favorable 47% Unfavorable 37% Undecided 16% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John McCain? Favorable 48% Unfavorable 41% Undecided 11% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin? Favorable 52% Unfavorable 36% Undecided 12% Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the economy, Barack Obama or John McCain? Barack Obama 56% John McCain 36% Undecided 8% Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the war in Iraq, Barack Obama or John McCain? John McCain 48% Barack Obama 41% Undecided 11% Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's overall job performance? Approve 27% Disapprove 68% Undecided 5% Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the economy? Approve 14% Disapprove 75% Undecided 11% Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq? Approve 43% Disapprove 45% Undecided 12%
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 10/8
Florida
Added: 10/9/08
Quote: Obama is viewed favorably by 57% of Florida voters, while his opponent is viewed favorably by 56%. Both candidates are viewed unfavorably by 43%. Joe Biden earns similar ratings to his running mate, 57% favorable and 42% unfavorable. Sarah Palin earns less flattering reviews, 51% favorable, 48% unfavorable. Sometimes, individual polls can overstate the volatility in a race, especially when the polls come with a +/- 4 percentage point margin of sampling error. One way to address this is to look at an average of three consecutive polls. This is the seventh Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida since Labor Day, so there is plenty of data to evaluate. In the first three polls in September, McCain was ahead 49% to 46%. The final three polls of September showed McCain up by two, 49% to 47%. For the three polls ending October 5, the numbers reversed and Obama enjoyed a 49% to 47% advantage. Now, with this latest poll, the three poll average shows the Democrat with a 50% to 46% lead. The struggling economy is the top issue in the upcoming election, but 51% of Florida voters say the recent passage of the federal bailout plan for Wall Street has made no impact on their vote. Twenty-eight percent (28%) say the bailout bill made them more likely to vote for Obama, while 21% said that of McCain. Overall, those who say the economy is the top issue favor Obama by a two-to-one margin.
Mason Dixon Polling and Research
Date: 10/4-5
Florida
Added: 10/7/08
Quote: The key to Florida remains the Tampa Bay region, where Obama currently holds a 48%-44% advantage. The other regions of the state fall into their generally predictable patterns, with Obama holding a wide 61%-33% lead in Southeast Florida and McCain running ahead in North Florida (58%-37%), Central Florida (51%-43%) and Southwest Florida (55%-40%). Obama runs stronger among Democrats, women, those under 50, blacks and those who have never served in the military, while McCain is stronger with men, Republicans, those over 50, whites and military veterans. Obama has a 50%-41% lead among independent voters, while McCain has a 49%-44% among Hispanic & Cuban voters. Interesting, despite the fact that he trails, McCain has a higher favorable rating with Florida voters than Obama (47%-46%) and Obama�s negatives have increased slightly over the past two weeks.
Rasmussen Reports for FOX News
Date: 10/5
Florida
Added: 10/6/08
Quote: As for which candidate voters trust more, both men earn 47% support. Obama edges out McCain 51% to 46% on handling the economy and jobs, while McCain has a 51% to 44% advantage on national security and the war on terrorism. The latest poll shows Obama dominating his opponent among unaffiliated voters in the state, 59% to 32%. McCain leads 54% to 43% among white voters in Florida, while Obama has a 67% to 33% lead among Hispanic voters. While over a third (34%) of Florida voters say they would be extremely comfortable with Obama as president, just 27% say that of McCain. However, more voters (41%) say they would not be at all comfortable with Obama in the White House than McCain (37%). Florida voters are much more comfortable with Joe Biden than Sarah Palin for the Vice Presidency. While 38% say they would be extremely comfortable with Biden in office, 29% say that about Palin. Nearly half of voters (46%) say they would not be comfortable at all with Palin as VP, while just 28% say that about Biden. Voters say they would choose McCain for advice for life�s toughest decision by a 48% to 47% margin. Governor Charlie Crist earns good or excellent ratings from 51% of voters. Just 13% say the governor is doing a poor job. President Bush�s job is rated good or excellent by 31% of voters in Florida, while 55% give his job performance a poor rating.
This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Florida polls.
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