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Democrat Polls
CNN/TIME
Date: 9/28-30
Florida
Added: 10/1/08
Quote: In Florida, the state that decided the 2000 presidential election, 51 percent of likely voters say Obama, D-Illinois, is their choice for president, with 47 percent backing Republican presidential nominee John McCain. The last CNN poll taken in Florida two weeks ago showed the race for the state's 27 electoral votes tied at 48 percent apiece among registered voters. A new CNN poll of polls in Florida, also out Wednesday, has Obama leading McCain by 5 points. The CNN poll of polls is an average of the new CNN poll and other new state polls. "The campaign season is like the hurricane season," said Bill Schneider, CNN's senior political analyst. "Florida lies directly in its path. Hurricane Obama hit Florida, and Hurricane McCain. Tropical Storms Biden and Palin made landfall in the Sunshine State. The impact? Over the last two weeks, Barack Obama has been gaining support in Florida."
Insider Advantage
Date: 9/30
Florida
Added: 10/1/08
Quote: Analysis: �Sen. McCain lost ground since our last survey in Florida among males and independents. Adding to current concerns for Sen. McCain in this survey is that nearly 20% of African-American respondents tell us they are voting for McCain. This is usual for our surveys of states in the Southeast and we almost always see the African-American column collapse to the Democrat by the last week of the race. This means that there is more potential downside for McCain. On the other side, independents in Florida usually break for the Republican. At current the independent vote is very close between the two candidates. If McCain recaptures independents, he can turn Florida around in a hurry. � Matt Towery
Quinnipiac University
Date: 9/27-29
Florida
Added: 10/1/08
Quote: Even before Friday's debate, Florida voters had shifted from 50 - 43 percent for McCain in a September 11 Quinnipiac University poll to 49 - 43 percent for Obama. Looking at post-debate numbers, Florida men likely voters back McCain 50 - 45 percent, while women back Obama 57 - 37 percent. McCain leads 50 - 45 percent edge among white voters. Independent voters back Obama 52 - 40 percent, compared to 50 - 43 percent for McCain September 11. Among the 79 percent of Florida voters who say they watched the debate, 49 percent said Obama did better, with 34 percent saying McCain won. By a 58 - 33 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 52 - 39 percent for McCain. Palin gets a negative 36 - 39 percent favorability, down from 47 - 23 percent September 11. Democratic running mate Joe Biden has a 47 - 27 percent favorability, up from 38 - 28 percent.
Public Policy Polling
Date: 9/27-28
Florida
Added: 9/30/08
Quote: 64% of poll respondents named the economy as their top issue, and within that group Obama holds a 55-40 lead. By comparison when PPP asked the same issues question in a January Florida survey just 26% said their biggest concern was the economy, and McCain led Obama by six points. Another factor driving movement in Obama�s direction in Florida is Sarah Palin�s rapidly declining standing with voters in the state. Right after the convention 45% said they were more likely to vote for McCain because of her spot on the ticket, compared to 34% who said they were less likely to do so. Now the number saying Palin makes them more likely to support McCain has gone down to 40%, while the percentage of those saying they are less likely to do so has ticked up to 41%. �The events of the past few weeks are pushing independents into Barack Obama�s camp,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Where McCain and Obama were tied with those voters three weeks ago, Obama now has an eight point advantage. John McCain badly needs the campaign to �switch topics� if he�s going to reverse the strong movement in Obama�s direction.� Also important to Obama�s movement in Florida is a much improved performance with white voters in the state. Where he had a 27 point deficit with them in early September, it is now down to just 11 points.
Survey USA
Date: 9/27-28
Florida
Added: 9/29/08
Quote: Central FL Moves to McCain, But Men & Southeast FL Move to Obama, Putting 27 Electoral Votes Into Play, 21 Days Till Voting Begins: In an election for President of the United States in Florida today, 09/29/08, three weeks till early voting begins, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain tie, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV Tampa, WFOR-TV Miami, WKRG-TV Mobile-Pensacola, and WFTX-TV Cape Coral. McCain gets 48% today, Obama 47%, an outcome within the survey's margin of sampling error. McCain's nominal 1-point advantage may or may not have statistical significance; the contest should be reported as even. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 09/18/08, McCain has lost 11 points among Florida men. McCain had led by 10 among men, now trails by 1. Obama is up in Southeast Florida, which includes Miami and Fort Lauderdale, where Obama had led by 12, but now leads by 22. McCain is up in Central Florida, which includes Orlando, where McCain and Obama had been tied, but McCain now leads by 14. In Southwest Florida, which includes Tampa, McCain had let by 14, now leads by 4. There was important movement among college grads, where McCain had led by 10, now trails by 4; among lower-income voters, where Obama had led by 3, now leads by 10; and among voters older than John McCain, where McCain had led by 24, now leads by 8. SurveyUSA's interactive tracking graphs , a SurveyUSA exclusive, allow you to track the votes of every demographic group.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 9/28
Florida
Added: 9/29/08
Quote: In Florida now, Mc Cain�s support among Republicans has dropped slightly which the percentage of Democrats backing Obama remains largely unchanged. Obama leads 51% to 39% among unaffiliated voters. McCain leads among men 53% to 40%. Obama leads with women voters 53% to 42%. The Republican is viewed favorably by 59%, unfavorably by 37%. Obama is viewed favorably by 52% of Florida voters, but 45% have an unfavorable view of him. One-in-five Florida voters (21%) say they still may change their minds on the candidate they vote for in November, but 79% say they are already certain of their vote. Among white Florida voters, McCain leads Obama 54% to 39. Forty-four percent (44%) say they would not be comfortable at all with Obama, the first African-American presidential nominee of a major political party, in the White House. Thirty-one percent (31%) feel that way about McCain. Forty-two percent (42%) of white voters are not at all comfortable with Republican candidate Sarah Palin as vice president, compared to 39% who say that of Obama�s running mate, Senator Joseph Biden.
American Research Group
Date: 9/23-25
Florida
Added: 9/26/08
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 9/24
Florida
Added: 9/26/08
Quote: Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Obama voters say they are voting with enthusiasm for their candidate, an attitude shared by 67% of McCain supporters. Thirty-one percent (31%) of McCain voters say they are primarily voting against Obama while 19% of the Democrat�s voters are primarily voting against McCain. McCain leads 78% to 19% among politically conservative Florida voters while Obama leads 89% to 8% among political liberals. Obama also holds a 17-point advantage among self-described political moderates while McCain benefits from the fact that there are more conservative voters than liberals. President George W. Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 28% of Florida voters, down from 34% just a few days ago. Fifty-four percent (54%) now say the President is doing a poor job.
Strategic Vision
Date: 9/20-22
Florida
Added: 9/26/08
Quote: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama? Favorable 50% Unfavorable 38% Undecided 12% Joseph Biden? Favorable 45% Unfavorable 36% Undecided 19% John McCain? Favorable 50% Unfavorable 39% Undecided 11% Sarah Palin? Favorable 54% Unfavorable 33% Undecided 13%
Zogby Interactive Survey
Date: 9/9-12
Florida
Added: 9/26/08
Quote: McCain had a great early September, but now Obama has closed the gap, putting Florida back in doubt again.
Mason Dixon for NBC News
Date: 9/16-18
Florida
Added: 9/23/08
Quote: Here�s your Obama bounce: Florida isn�t the only state looking good for Obama after the political winds shifted last week. In Virginia, he�s up by three points among likely voters (49%-46%) and six points among registered ones (50%-44%), according to a new Washington Post/ABC survey. Also, a new round of Wall Street Journal/WashingtonPost.com/Quinnipiac polling shows Obama leading among likelies in Colorado (49%-45%), Michigan (48%-44%), Minnesota (47%-45%), and Wisconsin (49%-42%). The lone piece of good battleground news for McCain comes from New Hampshire, where the latest University of New Hampshire poll has the Arizona senator up by two points (47%-45%).
Rasmussen Reports for FOX News
Date: 9/21
Florida
Added: 9/23/08
Quote: McCain is viewed favorably by 55% of Florida voters and unfavorably by 45%. Obama�s numbers are 50% favorable, 48% unfavorable. The GOP nominee has a solid 56% to 40% edge among unaffiliated voters in the Sunshine State. He also leads 53% to 44% among men and 51% to 47% among women. Voters trust McCain more than his opponent by a 52% to 43% margin. However, while over a third (34%) says they would be extremely comfortable with Obama as president, just 28% say that of McCain. Still, more voters (45%) are not at all comfortable with Obama in the White House as opposed to just 34% who feel that way about the Republican. As for their running mates, 29% say they would be extremely comfortable with Democrat Joseph Biden as vice president, and 32% say that of Republican Sarah Palin. While 42% say they would not be at all comfortable with Palin as vice president, 45% say that of Biden.
Miami Herald
Date: 9/14-17
Florida
Added: 9/21/08
Quote: Forty percent of voters who back the Republican said the choice of Palin made them more likely to vote for McCain, while 34 percent said the choice made it less likely they would vote for the GOP ticket. Those who describe themselves as born-again Christians, often the most conservative voters in the electorate, said the choice of the conservative hockey mom made them 60 percent more likely to vote for McCain. Among those who back Obama, 36 percent said his selection of Joe Biden cemented their support, while 28 percent said the choice made them less likely to vote for the ticket. As far as bridging the gender gap, the Palin pick didn't seem to help McCain in Florida. Women favor Obama by five percentage points, while men favor McCain by 11 percentage points. McCain leads among women who have children at home -- with a 47 to 46 percent edge. The poll asked voters an open-ended question: Describe the first thing that springs to mind when the vice presidential candidates' names are mentioned. Palin elicited responses from ''refreshing change'' to ''Oh, my God, help us.'' Biden elicited responses from ''man of experience'' to ``blowhard.'' There is clearly a steep racial divide among voters, with white voters choosing McCain over Obama 55 to 38 percent, and Obama with a near-lock on black voters, with 92 percent to McCain's 2 percent. Hispanic voters prefer McCain over Obama 51 to 41 percent. Of white voters, 47 percent pick McCain to improve the economy and 42 percent pick Obama. Among black voters, 95 percent trust Obama on economic issues while only 2 percent favor McCain. And among Hispanic voters, 47 percent favor McCain to handle the economy while 45 percent pick Obama. McCain also has more partisan crossover appeal: 16 percent of those who support him are registered Democrats and, among former Hillary Clinton supporters, he draws 17 percent support. Both Conway and Eldon say that the Republican presidential candidate in Florida typically draws at least 15 percent of the Democratic vote. By contrast, 12 percent of Obama's supporters are registered Republicans. Among voters who register no party affiliation, McCain draws 44 percent to Obama's 41 percent.
Research 2000 for Sun Sentinel
Date: 9/15-18
Florida
Added: 9/21/08
Quote: "It's competitive, no question, and obviously the economy is the top issue," said Del Ali of Research 2000, an independent pollster who conducted the telephone survey. "What took place on Wall Street this week helped Obama in Florida," Ali said. "His numbers went up with each day we polled. For him to win Florida, it's obviously important for the economy to stay the top issue." Women in the poll favored Obama over McCain 48 percent to 41 percent. Men favored McCain by 51 percent to 42 percent. In South Florida, where Democrats predominate, 58 percent of those polled intend to vote for Obama. McCain's strongest area was Northeast Florida, where he was favored by 56 percent. The region that could tip the race is the Tampa area, where 47 percent intend to vote for McCain and 46 percent back Obama.
Allstate National Journal Magazine
Date: 9/11-15
Florida
Added: 9/19/08
American Research Group
Date: 9/14-17
Florida
Added: 9/18/08
Survey USA
Date: 9/16-17
Florida
Added: 9/18/08
Quote: A Tale of 2 Floridas: Obama Leads in Southeast, McCain Leads Elsewhere & Is 6 Ahead in Fight for 27 Electoral Votes: In an election for President of the United States in Florida today, 09/18/08, seven weeks till votes are counted, the Sunshine State splits cleanly in two, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa, WKRG-TV Mobile/Pensacola, WFOR-TV Miami, and WFTX-TV Fort Myers. John McCain today carries the Northwest, Northeast, and Southwest portions of the state, and defeats Barack Obama 51% to 45%. Obama carries Southeast Florida, where Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach are located, but that is not enough to overcome McCain's margins elsewhere. McCain and Obama tie in Central Florida. The regional divides today are more pronounced in the parts of the state that border Alabama and Georgia than they were in an identical SurveyUSA poll released 6 weeks ago. Then, as now, McCain led by 6 points statewide. No dramatic movement on the surface. But underneath, this discovery: In Northwest Florida, which includes Pensacola, McCain had led by 14, now leads by 41. In Northeast Florida, which includes Jacksonville, McCain had led by 8, now leads by 46. In Southeast Florida, which includes many transplanted Northeasterners, Obama's lead has increased from 9 points 6 weeks ago to 12 points today. McCain has gained ground among men. But, in this first SurveyUSA poll after his pick of Sarah Palin, McCain has lost ground among women. Pro-Choice voters are drifting to Obama. Pro-Life voters are drifting to McCain. Voters focused on the economy now break 5:4 for Obama. But voters focused on Terrorism break 11:1 for McCain. McCain holds 81% of the GOP base. But Obama holds just 71% of Democrats. 23% of Democrats today cross over to vote Republican. Independents split. Among white voters, McCain leads by 15 points. Among Hispanics, McCain leads by 19.
CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corp
Date: 9/14-16
Florida
Added: 9/18/08
Rasmussen Reports for FOX News
Date: 9/14
Florida
Added: 9/16/08
Quote: The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 56% of Florida voters, Obama by 52%. For both men, those figures represent a slight decline over the past week. Forty-four percent (44%) say they would be extremely or very comfortable with McCain as President while 40% say the same about Obama. As for the running mates, 46% say they would be that comfortable with Joe Biden as President and 39% are that comfortable with Sarah Palin. Nationally, 63% of voters say that John McCain is prepared to be President while 44% say the same about Obama. Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John W. Kerry 52% to 47% in the Sunshine State. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state.
Insider Advantage Poll Position
Date: 9/10
Florida
Added: 9/12/08
Quinnipiac University Poll
Date: 9/5-9
Florida
Added: 9/11/08
Quote: Florida men likely voters back McCain 54 - 41 percent, while women go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama, the first time he has trailed among women. White voters back McCain 59 - 35 percent. Obama leads 55 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 52 - 41 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 54 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 50 - 43 percent, compared to 47 - 39 percent August 26 and 24 percent of those who backed Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary now support McCain, up from 14 percent August 26. By a 58 - 29 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 49 - 35 percent for Obama. Palin gets a 47 - 23 percent favorability, with 38 - 28 percent for Biden. The economy is the most important issue in the election, 49 percent of Florida voters say, as 12 percent cite the war in Iraq; 11 percent list terrorism; 9 percent say health care and 8 percent say energy policy. Florida likely voters say 58 - 38 percent that the vice presidential candidates picked by McCain and Obama will have little impact on which candidate they will pick on Election Day. "Sen. McCain has opened up a sizable lead over Sen. Obama in Florida on his ability to capture most demographic groups," said Brown. "He wins voters over age 35 overwhelmingly; takes independents and keeps a larger share of Republicans than Obama captures of Democrats."
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 9/7
Florida
Added: 9/9/08
Quote: The race in Florida has been tight since July, with neither candidate holding more than a three percentage-point advantage in the last two polls. Prior to July, McCain enjoyed more solid leads over the Democrat. The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 61% of Floridian voters and unfavorably by 37%. Obama�s numbers are 55% favorable, 45% unfavorable. As for the Vice Presidential nominees, the ratings are similar. Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 42%. Biden receives favorable ratings from 51% and unfavorable ratings from 43%.
Public Policy Polling
Date: 9/6-7
Florida
Added: 9/9/08
Quote: Each candidate has expanded his share of the vote within his own party over the last month but there�s been a five point shift in party identification toward the Republican side, perhaps because of momentum from a successful convention last week. �Barack Obama has dropped a few points each time we�ve polled Florida over the course of the summer,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Virginia and Colorado may end up as the states more critical to his Electoral College strategy this fall if the trend continues.� John McCain�s choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate appears to be a hit with Florida voters. 45% of respondents said it made them more likely to support McCain while just 36% said the choice of Joe Biden makes them more likely to choose Obama. McCain�s support with white voters is at a new high, as he leads 61-34 with them. Obama will have a hard time winning the state if he can�t cut down that margin and also increase his lead with Hispanic voters, among whom he currently leads 49-42.
This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Florida polls.
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