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Primaries 2004: Primary Polls
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Democrat Polls
Public Policy Polling
Date: 9/29-10/1
Michigan
Added: 10/2/08
Quote: Michigan�s been hit even harder than most places in the country by economic struggles over the last few years, and 69% of the state�s voters list the economy as their top issue. That�s higher than any other battleground state PPP has polled in. Obama holds a 54-37 lead among respondents who listed it as their biggest concern. Another factor helping to drive Obama�s improved standing in the state is Sarah Palin�s rapidly declining popularity. Immediately after the GOP convention 45% of Michigan voters said her selection made them more likely to vote for John McCain, compared to just 35% who said it made them less likely to do so. Since then there�s been a 14 point drop in her net favorability, with 43% now saying her selection makes them less likely to vote Republican and only 39% saying it makes them more likely to do so. �There have been two universal trends in all of PPP�s battleground polling the last two weeks,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Concern over the economy is at an all time high, and voters trust Barack Obama more to turn it around. Sarah Palin�s luster wore off pretty quickly. Those things are fueling gains of 6-9 points for the Democratic nominee, and unless the game changes soon that trend is going to take Michigan off the list of swing states and put it firmly into the Obama column.� The survey also found Carl Levin looking safe for reelection, with a 50-32 advantage over challenger Jack Hoogendyk. Levin�s holding the Republican under 70% even with members of his own party.
Detroit Free Press by Selzer
Date: 9/22-24
Michigan
Added: 9/26/08
Quote: With the markets in distress, Washington policymakers scrambling to find a compromise bailout plan and taxpayers howling that they don�t want to be stuck with a $700 billion bill to help Wall Street financiers, Obama is reaping the benefit � so much so that Michigan could possibly be removed from the list of battleground states, even as the candidates have spent so much time in the state. Asked who is best able to fix the problems with the U.S. economy, Obama did even better than the head-to-head with McCain, 52% to 37% among the 602 likely voters polled from Monday to Wednesday of this week by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa. Asked which candidate was more likely to fight for the concerns most important to you and your family, 56% of respondents said Obama, compared to 36% for McCain. The poll � which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points for the overall sample � showed that half of the respondents believe the economy is in a recession and 24% that it is already in a depression. That should come as no surprise to Michiganders, the state having the nation�s largest unemployment rate at 8.9% in August as automakers and related businesses struggle to find bottom amid layoffs and closings.
Strategic Vision
Date: 9/22-24
Michigan
Added: 9/26/08
Quote: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama? Favorable 51% Unfavorable 37% Undecided 12% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joseph Biden? Favorable 43% Unfavorable 38% Undecided 19% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John McCain? Favorable 52% Unfavorable 40% Undecided 8% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin? Favorable 53% Unfavorable 33% Undecided 14% Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the economy, Barack Obama or John McCain? Barack Obama 49% John McCain 39% Undecided 12% Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the war in Iraq, Barack Obama or John McCain? John McCain 48% Barack Obama 39% Undecided 13% Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's overall job performance? Approve 18% Disapprove 72% Undecided 10%
Zogby Interactive Survey
Date: 9/9-12
Michigan
Added: 9/25/08
National Journal AllState
Date: 9/18-22
Michigan
Added: 9/25/08
Quote: Michigan has long been rated as one of McCain's most promising pickup opportunities. Its governor, Democrat Jennifer Granholm, has struggled as the state's unemployment rate -- at 8.9 percent, the nation's highest -- has continued to rise. Michigan Democrats have also been damaged by the sex scandal involving Kwame Kilpatrick, who recently resigned as Detroit's mayor. But Bush is anathema to Michigan voters: A whopping 71 percent said they disapprove of the job that he is doing as president. Only 25 percent approve. Indeed, it's a testament to McCain's image as a maverick that among voters who give Bush a negative job rating, 22 percent say they plan to vote for the Republican nominee. "I think he would go against some Republicans for some things, even if it meant helping Democrats," said Martha Stump, a retired fast-food restaurant manager, who lives in Monroe. Stump, a self-described independent, assessed Bush's job performance as "lousy. Frankly, everything he does is." But others in Michigan doubt that McCain will be able to break with the past. "I really don't believe he's capable of change -- too many friends in Washington," said Robert Rau of Cheboygan, a retired line supervisor at a carburetor and fuel systems manufacturing company. Rau, who described himself as a lifelong Republican, said he likes Obama's "freshness" and added, "I feel we just can't continue in the steps of the last eight years."
EPIC MRA
Date: 9/20-22
Michigan
Added: 9/25/08
Market Research Group of Lansing
Date: 9/15-20
Michigan
Added: 9/24/08
Quote: Editor of Inside Michigan Politics. �The current polling shows that they still like him and they like and support Sarah Palin as his running mate.� The poll showed that Obama continues to show strong support among women (+2%), young voters (+16%), African Americans (+89%), voters living in the Detroit Metro area (+9%) along with his traditional Democratic base. John McCain is showing strength among blue�collar voters (+10%), men (+9%), white males (+29%), conservatives (+62%) and voters living in West Michigan (+12%) and the Flint/Saginaw/Bay City Area (+8%). Voters like McCain/Palin�s Experience and Judgment � But Change is a Toss �up. Voters believe the McCain/Palin ticket has more experience (61% - 31%) than the Obama/Biden ticket and they trust their judgment more (48% - 41%). But when it comes to bringing the right kind of change to Washington, the voter�s are split, � giving the Obama/Biden ticket a one-percent edge (44% - 43%). The poll was conducted by Marketing Resource Group, Inc. (MRG) of Lansing, Michigan, between September 15 and 19. It sampled 600 likely voters in Michigan and has a statistical margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent. MRG has been polling Michigan voters on political issues for more than 28 years.
Quinnipiac University
Date: 9/14-21
Michigan
Added: 9/23/08
Quote: Michigan women voters back Obama 52 - 40 percent, while men back McCain 49 - 44 percent. White voters back McCain 51 - 41 percent, as black voters support Obama 93 - 5 percent. The Democrat leads 51 - 48 percent among voters 18 to 34, and gets 47 percent of voters 35 to 54 to McCain's 45 percent. Voters over 55 back Obama 49 - 41 percent. Obama rather than McCain is the candidate of change, voters say 43 - 21 percent. Palin's selection is a good choice, voters say 58 - 32 percent, while these same voters say 51 - 30 percent that Biden is a good choice. By a 47 - 42 percent margin, voters would rather see Biden as President. Women back Biden 50 - 38 percent while men go 47 percent for Palin and 45 percent for Biden. The economy is the most important issue, 58 percent of Michigan voters say, and Obama understands it better, voters say 50 - 38 percent. McCain understands foreign policy better, voters say 64 - 26 percent. "Sen. Obama's lead in Michigan is built upon two key changes since the last Quinnipiac University poll: He has consolidated the Democratic base to the same degree that Sen. McCain has coalesced the Republican vote, and his lead among those who see the economy as the most important issue has almost doubled, from 50 - 39 percent to 55 - 35 percent," Brown said.
Rasmussen Reports for FOX News
Date: 9/21
Michigan
Added: 9/23/08
Quote: Fifty-two percent (52%) of Michigan voters say the economy is the top issue for Election 2008. On that issue, 51% say they trust Obama more than McCain while 41% voice the opposite opinion. On national security matters, McCain is trusted more, but just 19% of Michigan voters rank that as their top voting priority.
American Research Group
Date: 9/16-19
Michigan
Added: 9/22/08
Quote: Independents (27%): McCain 41, Obama 51.
EPIC MRA Detroit News
Date: 9/14-17
Michigan
Added: 9/21/08
Quote: As the head-to-head and full-ticket matchups show, the survey provides little evidence that Palin, the Alaska governor whose surprise selection has dominated campaign coverage much of the last month, is having a big effect on Michigan voters. About 1 in 4 voters says Palin's selection made them more likely to vote for McCain, but an equal share said they were less likely to support the ticket with her on it. And McCain's performance with female voters actually slipped from EPIC-MRA's August poll; he remained close by improving his standing with men. By a narrow margin, more voters say Palin is unqualified to assume the presidency. Asked if she was qualified to step in if necessary, 47 percent said no, 43 percent yes. Interviews with some of those surveyed suggested that weeks of tough media coverage are taking a toll on Palin. "When she first got into the race, I thought, 'Oh boy, the Democrats have got trouble. What a lovely and capable woman,' " said Lillian Myers, 74, of Novi, an Obama supporter who participated in the poll. "Now so much is coming out about her that I don't trust her."
Marist College Poll
Date: 9/16-17
Michigan
Added: 9/20/08
Quote: Democrat Barack Obama Leads Republican John McCain by 9 Percentage Points in the Wake of Nation�s Economic Crisis: In a survey conducted entirely after this week�s economic crisis hit, Senator Barack Obama leads Senator John McCain -- 50% to 41% -- among Michigan�s registered voters. Obama maintains his lead among the state�s likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a specific candidate. 52% of likely voters say they favor Obama compared with 43% who back McCain. Most likely Republican voters -- 93% -- support John McCain. A similar proportion of likely Democrats -- 92% -- support their party�s candidate. 57% of likely Independent voters back Barack Obama compared with 35% who support McCain. Voters Are Strongly Committed to their Choice of Candidate: 77% of registered voters in Michigan say they strongly support their choice for president. 76% of voters who back John McCain say they will not waiver in their support. 78% of Barack Obama�s supporters share that level of commitment for their candidate. Only a small percentage of each candidate�s supporters say they might vote differently on Election Day -- 4% for McCain and 3% for Obama. Eye on the Economy: In a state hard hit by the nation�s faltering economy, Michigan voters target the economy as the most important issue in the presidential race. Overall, a majority -- 51% -- of the state�s registered voters believe the economy should be the deciding factor when choosing the next president. Security against terrorism and the war in Iraq tie for a distant second each receiving 9%. Social issues and health care are also among voters� priorities. There�s no question, though, supporters on both sides see the economy as the focus of the race. But, more of Barack Obama�s backers view the economy as their top concern. 57% of Obama�s supporters consider the economy most important compared to 43% of McCain�s supporters.
Big Ten Battleground Poll
Date: 9/14-17
Michigan
Added: 9/19/08
Insider Advantage Poll Position
Date: 9/10
Michigan
Added: 9/12/08
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 9/10
Michigan
Added: 9/11/08
Quote: Obama has an eight-point lead among women, but the candidates are essentially even among men. McCain leads handily among regular churchgoers while Obama has the edge among those who rarely or never attend services (demographic crosstabs available for Premium Members). As for the running mates, 53% have a favorable opinion of Palin while 52% say the same about Joseph Biden. However, opinions are much stronger about the Alaska governor�37% have a Very Favorable opinion of her while just 23% are that pleased with the longtime Delaware senator. Fifty-two percent (52%) say McCain made the right choice when he asked Palin to join the Republican ticket. Forty-two percent (42%) say Obama made the right choice of a running mate. Biden himself made headlines yesterday by suggesting that Hillary Clinton might have been a better option for Obama. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Michigan voters say the economy is the top issue of Election 2008. Just 21% see national security issues as the highest priority.
CNN/TIME Opinion Research Corp
Date: 9/7-9
Michigan
Added: 9/11/08
Quote: When Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and Independent Ralph Nader are added in, Obama's lead narrows in Michigan to 45% to 42%.
Strategic Vision
Date: 9/5-7
Michigan
Added: 9/9/08
Quote: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama? Favorable 53% Unfavorable 34% Undecided 13% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joseph Biden? Favorable 42% Unfavorable 36% Undecided 22% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John McCain? Favorable 54% Unfavorable 38% Undecided 8% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin? Favorable 52% Unfavorable 30% Undecided 18%
Public Policy Polling
Date: 9/6-7
Michigan
Added: 9/8/08
Quote: The selection of Sarah Palin as the Republican Vice Presidential candidate appears to be a hit with Michigan voters. 45% of respondents say they are more likely to vote for McCain because of his running mate selection, while just 30% say Joe Biden joining the Democratic ticket makes them more likely to vote for Barack Obama. �There�s no doubt that the Palin choice shook up the race a good deal,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �The big question now is whether this tightening we�re seeing in Michigan is just part of a convention bounce, or a sign that the state is going to be extremely competitive right through November. If it is, that spells trouble for Barack Obama.� The race breaks down pretty much as one expects. Obama leads with women, blacks, and voters under 45. McCain has the edge with men, whites, and older voters. The candidates are tied with independent voters.
This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Michigan polls.
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