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Zogby Interactive 50 State Poll
Date: 6/11-30
North Carolina
Added: 8/9/08
Quote: There�s not much doubt where the movement is coming from. 69% of voters surveyed said they had been the ads about Dole�s low effectiveness ranking and among those folks Hagan has a 45-39 lead. Dole is up 45-34 with the voters who have not seen it. �The DSCC has made it clear this is a race they�re targeting and so far their efforts are paying off,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Elizabeth Dole has a lot of money and will certainly respond in the next ten weeks but this contest has clearly moved itself into the toss up category.� Hagan�s strong performance comes despite leading only 61-14 with black voters at this point, something that is almost sure to improve between now and election day. The Presidential race in the state remains close with John McCain holding the same three point lead in the poll that he did last month. He has 45% to 42% for Barack Obama and 4% for Bob Barr. Obama�s biggest hindrance to success is a continuing problem reeling in the support of Democratic voters. Right now he is at just 69% with respondents who identify with his party, a number that will have to improve if he is to be successful here in November. Whites: McCain 54%, Obama 33%. Blacks: Obama 75%, McCain 17%. No gender gap. Men: Obama 40%, McCain 49%. Women: Obama 41%, McCain 44%. In North Carolina, McCain is supported by 87% of Republicans while Obama is backed by 74% of Democrats. McCain has a slight lead among unaffiliated voters, a reversal from last month. McCain leads by a more than two-to-one margin among white voters while Obama is supported by 93% of African-Americans. McCain leads by twenty percentage points among men, but trails Obama by five among women. McCain is viewed favorably by 59%, up two points from last month and four points from two months ago. Obama is viewed favorably by 51%, down just a point over the past month. North Carolina has voted for Republican candidates in nine out of the last ten Presidential elections. In 2004, George W. Bush won the state by a 56% to 44% margin. 12 Weeks Out, McCain 4 Points Atop Obama in NC: In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina today, 08/12/08, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama 49% to 45%, according to this latest exclusive WTVD-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 12 weeks ago, McCain is down 2, Obama is up 2. McCain had led by 8, now 4. In Raleigh, there is slight movement to Obama. In Southern and Coastal NC, there is slight, offsetting movement to McCain. Among the better educated, there is movement to Obama. Among the less-educated, there is erosion in Obama's support. Blacks continue to vote 10:1 Obama. Whites continue to vote 2:1 McCain. Obama continues to lead 5:4 among the less affluent.McCain continues to lead 5:4 among the more affluent.Among men, McCain led by 20 points four weeks ago, leads by 9 today. Among women, Obama led by 7 points four weeks ago, leads by 2 today. A then-27-point Gender Gap is now 11 points. McCain holds 86% of the GOP base. Obama holds 71% of the Democrat base. Independents can't make up their minds. Men: Obama 36, McCain 48. Women: Obama 58, McCain 28.
Public Policy Polling
Date: 6/26-29
North Carolina
Added: 7/2/08
Quote: There�s not much doubt where the movement is coming from. 69% of voters surveyed said they had been the ads about Dole�s low effectiveness ranking and among those folks Hagan has a 45-39 lead. Dole is up 45-34 with the voters who have not seen it. �The DSCC has made it clear this is a race they�re targeting and so far their efforts are paying off,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Elizabeth Dole has a lot of money and will certainly respond in the next ten weeks but this contest has clearly moved itself into the toss up category.� Hagan�s strong performance comes despite leading only 61-14 with black voters at this point, something that is almost sure to improve between now and election day. The Presidential race in the state remains close with John McCain holding the same three point lead in the poll that he did last month. He has 45% to 42% for Barack Obama and 4% for Bob Barr. Obama�s biggest hindrance to success is a continuing problem reeling in the support of Democratic voters. Right now he is at just 69% with respondents who identify with his party, a number that will have to improve if he is to be successful here in November. Whites: McCain 54%, Obama 33%. Blacks: Obama 75%, McCain 17%. No gender gap. Men: Obama 40%, McCain 49%. Women: Obama 41%, McCain 44%. In North Carolina, McCain is supported by 87% of Republicans while Obama is backed by 74% of Democrats. McCain has a slight lead among unaffiliated voters, a reversal from last month. McCain leads by a more than two-to-one margin among white voters while Obama is supported by 93% of African-Americans. McCain leads by twenty percentage points among men, but trails Obama by five among women. McCain is viewed favorably by 59%, up two points from last month and four points from two months ago. Obama is viewed favorably by 51%, down just a point over the past month. North Carolina has voted for Republican candidates in nine out of the last ten Presidential elections. In 2004, George W. Bush won the state by a 56% to 44% margin. 12 Weeks Out, McCain 4 Points Atop Obama in NC: In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina today, 08/12/08, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama 49% to 45%, according to this latest exclusive WTVD-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 12 weeks ago, McCain is down 2, Obama is up 2. McCain had led by 8, now 4. In Raleigh, there is slight movement to Obama. In Southern and Coastal NC, there is slight, offsetting movement to McCain. Among the better educated, there is movement to Obama. Among the less-educated, there is erosion in Obama's support. Blacks continue to vote 10:1 Obama. Whites continue to vote 2:1 McCain. Obama continues to lead 5:4 among the less affluent.McCain continues to lead 5:4 among the more affluent.Among men, McCain led by 20 points four weeks ago, leads by 9 today. Among women, Obama led by 7 points four weeks ago, leads by 2 today. A then-27-point Gender Gap is now 11 points. McCain holds 86% of the GOP base. Obama holds 71% of the Democrat base. Independents can't make up their minds. Men: Obama 36, McCain 48. Women: Obama 58, McCain 28. There are several races in which Obama's strength will have a say in the outcome of the Senate race, and this is certainly one of them, so let's see how he does: Yeah, this one is a tossup. And it's likely even better than this. According to the 2004 exit polls African Americans made up 26 percent of the North Carolina electorate. The sample size of this poll is 22 percent black, and does anyone think black turnout will be down this year? Didn't think so... So all things considered, these are pretty darn good numbers. You Tarheelers are going to be really busy this year. McCain led by two points last month and by three points in May. The two candidates were tied at 47% in April. North Carolina has voted for Republican candidates in nine out of the last ten Presidential elections. In 2004, George W. Bush won the state by a 56% to 44% margin. The race between Obama and McCain is also very close on the national level, where Obama is currently leading 44% to 42% in the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. In the Tar Heel State, McCain is supported by 85% of Republicans and 18% of Democrats. Obama is backed by 69% of Democrats and just 7% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama leads 43% to 33%. McCain leads 48% to 39% among men, but trails Obama 44% to 42% among women. Favorability ratings for both candidates have improved slightly over the past month. McCain is viewed favorably by 57%, up two points from last month, and unfavorably by 40%, down two points from last month. Obama�s numbers are 52% favorable, up from 49%, and 45% unfavorable, down from 50% last month. Opinions about Obama are much stronger than those of McCain. Thirty-one percent (31%) have a Very Favorable view of the Democrat, while 29% have a Very Unfavorable view. McCain�s ratings are 23% Very Favorable and 16% Very Unfavorable. Not surprisingly, the plurality of voters (47%) in North Carolina chooses the economy as the most important issue of Election 2008. National Security comes in a distant second with 28% of voters who believe that is the top issue. Most voters nationwide believe high gas and oil prices are the biggest threat to the economy today. In North Carolina, 60% support the idea of drilling in offshore oil wells and 55% believe this practice would reduce the price of gas. Fifty-two percent (52%) think the U.S. should allow drilling in the Alaskan Wildlife Refuge, while 36% oppose this idea. 16 Weeks To Election, McCain Leads Obama by 5 in North Carolina: In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina today, 07/15/08, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama 50% to 45%, according to this latest exclusive WTVD-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical survey released 8 weeks ago, little has changed, and most changes that have occurred are offsetting. Overall, Obama is up 2 points, McCain down 1. Among women, McCain had led by 2, now trails by 7; among men, McCain had led by 14, now leads by 20 -- a 27 point gender gap. Among voters age 50 to 64, McCain had led by 11, now leads by 2 -- but that gain is erased by voters age 65+, where McCain had led by 12, but now leads by 26. Among white voters, McCain continues to lead 2:1; among black voters, Obama leads 15:1. 22% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain, down slightly from 28% eight weeks ago. 8% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama, down slightly from 12%. Among the 15% of likely voters who describe themselves as independents, McCain had led by 9; today, Obama leads by 2 among Independents. One of the most interesting findings in the poll is that while McCain leads 49-36 among life time residents of North Carolina, Obama has a 46-40 lead with those voters who have moved to the state from somewhere else. �The race continues to be tight in North Carolina,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �This may not be the year Democrats win the Presidential contest here, but the data showing Obama leading among non-natives is an indication that this state could become bluer as more and more people move here in the coming years.� Obama is still only getting the support of 67% of self described Democrats, while 83% of Republicans intend to vote for McCain. Boosting those numbers will be the key to Obama having any shot of taking the state this fall.
Public Policy Polling
Date: 6/2/08
North Carolina
Added: 6/2/08
Quote: There�s not much doubt where the movement is coming from. 69% of voters surveyed said they had been the ads about Dole�s low effectiveness ranking and among those folks Hagan has a 45-39 lead. Dole is up 45-34 with the voters who have not seen it. �The DSCC has made it clear this is a race they�re targeting and so far their efforts are paying off,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Elizabeth Dole has a lot of money and will certainly respond in the next ten weeks but this contest has clearly moved itself into the toss up category.� Hagan�s strong performance comes despite leading only 61-14 with black voters at this point, something that is almost sure to improve between now and election day. The Presidential race in the state remains close with John McCain holding the same three point lead in the poll that he did last month. He has 45% to 42% for Barack Obama and 4% for Bob Barr. Obama�s biggest hindrance to success is a continuing problem reeling in the support of Democratic voters. Right now he is at just 69% with respondents who identify with his party, a number that will have to improve if he is to be successful here in November. Whites: McCain 54%, Obama 33%. Blacks: Obama 75%, McCain 17%. No gender gap. Men: Obama 40%, McCain 49%. Women: Obama 41%, McCain 44%. In North Carolina, McCain is supported by 87% of Republicans while Obama is backed by 74% of Democrats. McCain has a slight lead among unaffiliated voters, a reversal from last month. McCain leads by a more than two-to-one margin among white voters while Obama is supported by 93% of African-Americans. McCain leads by twenty percentage points among men, but trails Obama by five among women. McCain is viewed favorably by 59%, up two points from last month and four points from two months ago. Obama is viewed favorably by 51%, down just a point over the past month. North Carolina has voted for Republican candidates in nine out of the last ten Presidential elections. In 2004, George W. Bush won the state by a 56% to 44% margin. 12 Weeks Out, McCain 4 Points Atop Obama in NC: In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina today, 08/12/08, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama 49% to 45%, according to this latest exclusive WTVD-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 12 weeks ago, McCain is down 2, Obama is up 2. McCain had led by 8, now 4. In Raleigh, there is slight movement to Obama. In Southern and Coastal NC, there is slight, offsetting movement to McCain. Among the better educated, there is movement to Obama. Among the less-educated, there is erosion in Obama's support. Blacks continue to vote 10:1 Obama. Whites continue to vote 2:1 McCain. Obama continues to lead 5:4 among the less affluent.McCain continues to lead 5:4 among the more affluent.Among men, McCain led by 20 points four weeks ago, leads by 9 today. Among women, Obama led by 7 points four weeks ago, leads by 2 today. A then-27-point Gender Gap is now 11 points. McCain holds 86% of the GOP base. Obama holds 71% of the Democrat base. Independents can't make up their minds. Men: Obama 36, McCain 48. Women: Obama 58, McCain 28. There are several races in which Obama's strength will have a say in the outcome of the Senate race, and this is certainly one of them, so let's see how he does: Yeah, this one is a tossup. And it's likely even better than this. According to the 2004 exit polls African Americans made up 26 percent of the North Carolina electorate. The sample size of this poll is 22 percent black, and does anyone think black turnout will be down this year? Didn't think so... So all things considered, these are pretty darn good numbers. You Tarheelers are going to be really busy this year. McCain led by two points last month and by three points in May. The two candidates were tied at 47% in April. North Carolina has voted for Republican candidates in nine out of the last ten Presidential elections. In 2004, George W. Bush won the state by a 56% to 44% margin. The race between Obama and McCain is also very close on the national level, where Obama is currently leading 44% to 42% in the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. In the Tar Heel State, McCain is supported by 85% of Republicans and 18% of Democrats. Obama is backed by 69% of Democrats and just 7% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama leads 43% to 33%. McCain leads 48% to 39% among men, but trails Obama 44% to 42% among women. Favorability ratings for both candidates have improved slightly over the past month. McCain is viewed favorably by 57%, up two points from last month, and unfavorably by 40%, down two points from last month. Obama�s numbers are 52% favorable, up from 49%, and 45% unfavorable, down from 50% last month. Opinions about Obama are much stronger than those of McCain. Thirty-one percent (31%) have a Very Favorable view of the Democrat, while 29% have a Very Unfavorable view. McCain�s ratings are 23% Very Favorable and 16% Very Unfavorable. Not surprisingly, the plurality of voters (47%) in North Carolina chooses the economy as the most important issue of Election 2008. National Security comes in a distant second with 28% of voters who believe that is the top issue. Most voters nationwide believe high gas and oil prices are the biggest threat to the economy today. In North Carolina, 60% support the idea of drilling in offshore oil wells and 55% believe this practice would reduce the price of gas. Fifty-two percent (52%) think the U.S. should allow drilling in the Alaskan Wildlife Refuge, while 36% oppose this idea. 16 Weeks To Election, McCain Leads Obama by 5 in North Carolina: In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina today, 07/15/08, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama 50% to 45%, according to this latest exclusive WTVD-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical survey released 8 weeks ago, little has changed, and most changes that have occurred are offsetting. Overall, Obama is up 2 points, McCain down 1. Among women, McCain had led by 2, now trails by 7; among men, McCain had led by 14, now leads by 20 -- a 27 point gender gap. Among voters age 50 to 64, McCain had led by 11, now leads by 2 -- but that gain is erased by voters age 65+, where McCain had led by 12, but now leads by 26. Among white voters, McCain continues to lead 2:1; among black voters, Obama leads 15:1. 22% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain, down slightly from 28% eight weeks ago. 8% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama, down slightly from 12%. Among the 15% of likely voters who describe themselves as independents, McCain had led by 9; today, Obama leads by 2 among Independents. One of the most interesting findings in the poll is that while McCain leads 49-36 among life time residents of North Carolina, Obama has a 46-40 lead with those voters who have moved to the state from somewhere else. �The race continues to be tight in North Carolina,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �This may not be the year Democrats win the Presidential contest here, but the data showing Obama leading among non-natives is an indication that this state could become bluer as more and more people move here in the coming years.� Obama is still only getting the support of 67% of self described Democrats, while 83% of Republicans intend to vote for McCain. Boosting those numbers will be the key to Obama having any shot of taking the state this fall. .
Civitas Institute poll conducted by Tel Opinion Research (R)
Date: 6/17/08
North Carolina
Added: 6/17/08
Quote: There�s not much doubt where the movement is coming from. 69% of voters surveyed said they had been the ads about Dole�s low effectiveness ranking and among those folks Hagan has a 45-39 lead. Dole is up 45-34 with the voters who have not seen it. �The DSCC has made it clear this is a race they�re targeting and so far their efforts are paying off,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Elizabeth Dole has a lot of money and will certainly respond in the next ten weeks but this contest has clearly moved itself into the toss up category.� Hagan�s strong performance comes despite leading only 61-14 with black voters at this point, something that is almost sure to improve between now and election day. The Presidential race in the state remains close with John McCain holding the same three point lead in the poll that he did last month. He has 45% to 42% for Barack Obama and 4% for Bob Barr. Obama�s biggest hindrance to success is a continuing problem reeling in the support of Democratic voters. Right now he is at just 69% with respondents who identify with his party, a number that will have to improve if he is to be successful here in November. Whites: McCain 54%, Obama 33%. Blacks: Obama 75%, McCain 17%. No gender gap. Men: Obama 40%, McCain 49%. Women: Obama 41%, McCain 44%. In North Carolina, McCain is supported by 87% of Republicans while Obama is backed by 74% of Democrats. McCain has a slight lead among unaffiliated voters, a reversal from last month. McCain leads by a more than two-to-one margin among white voters while Obama is supported by 93% of African-Americans. McCain leads by twenty percentage points among men, but trails Obama by five among women. McCain is viewed favorably by 59%, up two points from last month and four points from two months ago. Obama is viewed favorably by 51%, down just a point over the past month. North Carolina has voted for Republican candidates in nine out of the last ten Presidential elections. In 2004, George W. Bush won the state by a 56% to 44% margin. 12 Weeks Out, McCain 4 Points Atop Obama in NC: In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina today, 08/12/08, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama 49% to 45%, according to this latest exclusive WTVD-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 12 weeks ago, McCain is down 2, Obama is up 2. McCain had led by 8, now 4. In Raleigh, there is slight movement to Obama. In Southern and Coastal NC, there is slight, offsetting movement to McCain. Among the better educated, there is movement to Obama. Among the less-educated, there is erosion in Obama's support. Blacks continue to vote 10:1 Obama. Whites continue to vote 2:1 McCain. Obama continues to lead 5:4 among the less affluent.McCain continues to lead 5:4 among the more affluent.Among men, McCain led by 20 points four weeks ago, leads by 9 today. Among women, Obama led by 7 points four weeks ago, leads by 2 today. A then-27-point Gender Gap is now 11 points. McCain holds 86% of the GOP base. Obama holds 71% of the Democrat base. Independents can't make up their minds. Men: Obama 36, McCain 48. Women: Obama 58, McCain 28. There are several races in which Obama's strength will have a say in the outcome of the Senate race, and this is certainly one of them, so let's see how he does: Yeah, this one is a tossup. And it's likely even better than this. According to the 2004 exit polls African Americans made up 26 percent of the North Carolina electorate. The sample size of this poll is 22 percent black, and does anyone think black turnout will be down this year? Didn't think so... So all things considered, these are pretty darn good numbers. You Tarheelers are going to be really busy this year. McCain led by two points last month and by three points in May. The two candidates were tied at 47% in April. North Carolina has voted for Republican candidates in nine out of the last ten Presidential elections. In 2004, George W. Bush won the state by a 56% to 44% margin. The race between Obama and McCain is also very close on the national level, where Obama is currently leading 44% to 42% in the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. In the Tar Heel State, McCain is supported by 85% of Republicans and 18% of Democrats. Obama is backed by 69% of Democrats and just 7% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama leads 43% to 33%. McCain leads 48% to 39% among men, but trails Obama 44% to 42% among women. Favorability ratings for both candidates have improved slightly over the past month. McCain is viewed favorably by 57%, up two points from last month, and unfavorably by 40%, down two points from last month. Obama�s numbers are 52% favorable, up from 49%, and 45% unfavorable, down from 50% last month. Opinions about Obama are much stronger than those of McCain. Thirty-one percent (31%) have a Very Favorable view of the Democrat, while 29% have a Very Unfavorable view. McCain�s ratings are 23% Very Favorable and 16% Very Unfavorable. Not surprisingly, the plurality of voters (47%) in North Carolina chooses the economy as the most important issue of Election 2008. National Security comes in a distant second with 28% of voters who believe that is the top issue. Most voters nationwide believe high gas and oil prices are the biggest threat to the economy today. In North Carolina, 60% support the idea of drilling in offshore oil wells and 55% believe this practice would reduce the price of gas. Fifty-two percent (52%) think the U.S. should allow drilling in the Alaskan Wildlife Refuge, while 36% oppose this idea. 16 Weeks To Election, McCain Leads Obama by 5 in North Carolina: In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina today, 07/15/08, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama 50% to 45%, according to this latest exclusive WTVD-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical survey released 8 weeks ago, little has changed, and most changes that have occurred are offsetting. Overall, Obama is up 2 points, McCain down 1. Among women, McCain had led by 2, now trails by 7; among men, McCain had led by 14, now leads by 20 -- a 27 point gender gap. Among voters age 50 to 64, McCain had led by 11, now leads by 2 -- but that gain is erased by voters age 65+, where McCain had led by 12, but now leads by 26. Among white voters, McCain continues to lead 2:1; among black voters, Obama leads 15:1. 22% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain, down slightly from 28% eight weeks ago. 8% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama, down slightly from 12%. Among the 15% of likely voters who describe themselves as independents, McCain had led by 9; today, Obama leads by 2 among Independents. One of the most interesting findings in the poll is that while McCain leads 49-36 among life time residents of North Carolina, Obama has a 46-40 lead with those voters who have moved to the state from somewhere else. �The race continues to be tight in North Carolina,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �This may not be the year Democrats win the Presidential contest here, but the data showing Obama leading among non-natives is an indication that this state could become bluer as more and more people move here in the coming years.� Obama is still only getting the support of 67% of self described Democrats, while 83% of Republicans intend to vote for McCain. Boosting those numbers will be the key to Obama having any shot of taking the state this fall. . . .
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 6/13/08
North Carolina
Added: 6/13/08
Quote: There�s not much doubt where the movement is coming from. 69% of voters surveyed said they had been the ads about Dole�s low effectiveness ranking and among those folks Hagan has a 45-39 lead. Dole is up 45-34 with the voters who have not seen it. �The DSCC has made it clear this is a race they�re targeting and so far their efforts are paying off,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �Elizabeth Dole has a lot of money and will certainly respond in the next ten weeks but this contest has clearly moved itself into the toss up category.� Hagan�s strong performance comes despite leading only 61-14 with black voters at this point, something that is almost sure to improve between now and election day. The Presidential race in the state remains close with John McCain holding the same three point lead in the poll that he did last month. He has 45% to 42% for Barack Obama and 4% for Bob Barr. Obama�s biggest hindrance to success is a continuing problem reeling in the support of Democratic voters. Right now he is at just 69% with respondents who identify with his party, a number that will have to improve if he is to be successful here in November. Whites: McCain 54%, Obama 33%. Blacks: Obama 75%, McCain 17%. No gender gap. Men: Obama 40%, McCain 49%. Women: Obama 41%, McCain 44%. In North Carolina, McCain is supported by 87% of Republicans while Obama is backed by 74% of Democrats. McCain has a slight lead among unaffiliated voters, a reversal from last month. McCain leads by a more than two-to-one margin among white voters while Obama is supported by 93% of African-Americans. McCain leads by twenty percentage points among men, but trails Obama by five among women. McCain is viewed favorably by 59%, up two points from last month and four points from two months ago. Obama is viewed favorably by 51%, down just a point over the past month. North Carolina has voted for Republican candidates in nine out of the last ten Presidential elections. In 2004, George W. Bush won the state by a 56% to 44% margin. 12 Weeks Out, McCain 4 Points Atop Obama in NC: In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina today, 08/12/08, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama 49% to 45%, according to this latest exclusive WTVD-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 12 weeks ago, McCain is down 2, Obama is up 2. McCain had led by 8, now 4. In Raleigh, there is slight movement to Obama. In Southern and Coastal NC, there is slight, offsetting movement to McCain. Among the better educated, there is movement to Obama. Among the less-educated, there is erosion in Obama's support. Blacks continue to vote 10:1 Obama. Whites continue to vote 2:1 McCain. Obama continues to lead 5:4 among the less affluent.McCain continues to lead 5:4 among the more affluent.Among men, McCain led by 20 points four weeks ago, leads by 9 today. Among women, Obama led by 7 points four weeks ago, leads by 2 today. A then-27-point Gender Gap is now 11 points. McCain holds 86% of the GOP base. Obama holds 71% of the Democrat base. Independents can't make up their minds. Men: Obama 36, McCain 48. Women: Obama 58, McCain 28. There are several races in which Obama's strength will have a say in the outcome of the Senate race, and this is certainly one of them, so let's see how he does: Yeah, this one is a tossup. And it's likely even better than this. According to the 2004 exit polls African Americans made up 26 percent of the North Carolina electorate. The sample size of this poll is 22 percent black, and does anyone think black turnout will be down this year? Didn't think so... So all things considered, these are pretty darn good numbers. You Tarheelers are going to be really busy this year. McCain led by two points last month and by three points in May. The two candidates were tied at 47% in April. North Carolina has voted for Republican candidates in nine out of the last ten Presidential elections. In 2004, George W. Bush won the state by a 56% to 44% margin. The race between Obama and McCain is also very close on the national level, where Obama is currently leading 44% to 42% in the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. In the Tar Heel State, McCain is supported by 85% of Republicans and 18% of Democrats. Obama is backed by 69% of Democrats and just 7% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama leads 43% to 33%. McCain leads 48% to 39% among men, but trails Obama 44% to 42% among women. Favorability ratings for both candidates have improved slightly over the past month. McCain is viewed favorably by 57%, up two points from last month, and unfavorably by 40%, down two points from last month. Obama�s numbers are 52% favorable, up from 49%, and 45% unfavorable, down from 50% last month. Opinions about Obama are much stronger than those of McCain. Thirty-one percent (31%) have a Very Favorable view of the Democrat, while 29% have a Very Unfavorable view. McCain�s ratings are 23% Very Favorable and 16% Very Unfavorable. Not surprisingly, the plurality of voters (47%) in North Carolina chooses the economy as the most important issue of Election 2008. National Security comes in a distant second with 28% of voters who believe that is the top issue. Most voters nationwide believe high gas and oil prices are the biggest threat to the economy today. In North Carolina, 60% support the idea of drilling in offshore oil wells and 55% believe this practice would reduce the price of gas. Fifty-two percent (52%) think the U.S. should allow drilling in the Alaskan Wildlife Refuge, while 36% oppose this idea. 16 Weeks To Election, McCain Leads Obama by 5 in North Carolina: In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina today, 07/15/08, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama 50% to 45%, according to this latest exclusive WTVD-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical survey released 8 weeks ago, little has changed, and most changes that have occurred are offsetting. Overall, Obama is up 2 points, McCain down 1. Among women, McCain had led by 2, now trails by 7; among men, McCain had led by 14, now leads by 20 -- a 27 point gender gap. Among voters age 50 to 64, McCain had led by 11, now leads by 2 -- but that gain is erased by voters age 65+, where McCain had led by 12, but now leads by 26. Among white voters, McCain continues to lead 2:1; among black voters, Obama leads 15:1. 22% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain, down slightly from 28% eight weeks ago. 8% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama, down slightly from 12%. Among the 15% of likely voters who describe themselves as independents, McCain had led by 9; today, Obama leads by 2 among Independents. One of the most interesting findings in the poll is that while McCain leads 49-36 among life time residents of North Carolina, Obama has a 46-40 lead with those voters who have moved to the state from somewhere else. �The race continues to be tight in North Carolina,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �This may not be the year Democrats win the Presidential contest here, but the data showing Obama leading among non-natives is an indication that this state could become bluer as more and more people move here in the coming years.� Obama is still only getting the support of 67% of self described Democrats, while 83% of Republicans intend to vote for McCain. Boosting those numbers will be the key to Obama having any shot of taking the state this fall. . . . . . .
This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 North Carolina polls.
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