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Primaries 2004: Primary Polls
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Democrat Polls
Quinnipiac University
Date: 10/27-11/2
Ohio
Added: 11/3/08
Quote: Among early voters in Ohio, Obama leads 64 - 26 percent. Among all likely voters, women back the Democrat 57 - 34 percent, as men back McCain 51 - 43 percent. McCain leads among white voters 48 - 45 percent and among evangelical Christians 59 - 34 percent. Obama leads among black voters 96 - 1 percent. Independent voters go 48 - 44 percent for the Democrat. Obama gets a 55 - 38 percent favorability in Ohio, with 51 - 42 percent for McCain. Palin's favorability is a negative 41 - 45 percent, while Biden gets 48 - 33 percent. For 58 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the biggest issue and voters say 53 - 40 percent that Obama will be more effective than McCain working with Congress on this issue. Criticism of McCain's ties to Bush is more harmful than criticism of his selection of Palin, voters say 62 - 24 percent, with 10 percent saying neither. Criticism of Obama as too liberal is more harmful than criticism that he is too inexperienced, voters say 43 - 39 percent, with 14 percent saying neither. "Sen. Obama's Ohio lead is based on his ability to be competitive among whites, even those without college degrees. He also is keeping Sen. McCain almost 15 points below the level of support among white evangelical Christians that President Bush received four years ago," Brown said. "Who would have thought that would be the case last March when Obama lost the Ohio Democratic primary decisively to Sen. Hillary Clinton, mostly because of his weakness among white working class voters?"
University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll
Date: 10/29-11/2
Ohio
Added: 11/3/08
Quote: After allocation of undecided voters to the candidates they are most likely to support, the presidential race in Ohio stands at Illinois Senator Barack Obama 51.5 percent, Arizona Senator John McCain 45.7 percent, and Other 2.8 percent. These findings are based on the latest Ohio Poll, conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati. The Ohio Poll is sponsored by the University of Cincinnati. One thousand three hundred eight (1,308) probable voters were interviewed between October 29 and November 2, 2008. In 95 of 100 cases, the statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 2.7 percent.
Mason Dixon
Date: 10/28-29
Ohio
Added: 11/2/08
Columbus Dispatch
Date: 10/22-31
Ohio
Added: 11/2/08
Quote: If Obama's lead of 52 percent to 46 percent in the new poll holds, he would become the first Democrat to win more than 50 percent of the Ohio vote since Lyndon B. Johnson did in 1964. The survey shows he has sprinted to a 14-point lead among those who already have cast a ballot under Ohio's new early-voting law, and he is up by a ratio of almost 3-to-1 with voters who registered for the first time this year. Such voters now make up about 10 percent of the electorate. One poll participant in the former category is Erin McGuire, 26, an educator from Columbus. "Barack Obama is a breath of fresh air. He is not all style and no substance. In his time in the public arena, he has demonstrated a keen intellect and firm grasp of national and international issues," she said. "While I respect John McCain's service to our country, I do not like how his campaign has lurched from issue to issue. The steadiness I admire in Obama is sorely missing in McCain. I have trouble seeing him as a true maverick when he has played to the interests of his base so strongly." A key to Obama's success is the large margins he rolls up among women and voters 34 or younger. In his bid to become the nation's first black president, he's winning support from 90 percent of African-Americans. McCain is ahead among whites 51 percent to 47 percent. Even though Obama has set all-time highs for money raised, TV ads run, campaign staffers hired and probably paper clips used, the turnout Tuesday will determine who wins. The Dispatch Poll, like most surveys this year, shows more self-identified Democrats than at any time in the recent past. If they or Obama's other core supporters -- women, blacks and young voters -- don't show up at the polls, McCain conceivably still could pull it off. The five other presidential candidates on Ohio's ballot combined for 2 percent in the poll, with about half that total going to independent Ralph Nader. Respondent Ann Williams, 61, who is self-employed and a volunteer, noted that former Secretary of State Colin Powell called Obama a "transformational figure." "Barack Obama has the brains, temperament, spine, ideas, judgment that will help pull our country together and restore our image in the world," the Cincinnati resident said.
Ohio University
Date: 10/12-23
Ohio
Added: 11/1/08
National Journal FD
Date: 10/23-27
Ohio
Added: 10/30/08
CNN TIME
Date: 10/23-28
Ohio
Added: 10/30/08
Marist College
Date: 10/24-26
Ohio
Added: 10/29/08
Quinnipiac University
Date: 10/22-26
Ohio
Added: 10/29/08
Quote: Obama leads 57 - 31 percent among those who already have voted in Ohio. Among all Ohio likely voters, the Democrat leads 55 - 36 percent among women. McCain gets 48 percent of men to Obama's 45 percent. White voters split with 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama. Black voters back Obama 89 - 1 percent. The Democrat leads 59 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, while voters 35 to 54 split with 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama. Voters over 55 go Democratic 50 - 40 percent. Independent voters go 50 - 38 percent for the Democrat. Obama gets a 55 - 34 percent favorability in Ohio, with 51 - 42 percent for McCain. Palin's favorability is 41 - 40 percent, while Biden gets a 47 - 28 percent favorability. For 59 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the biggest issue. "The Obama campaign has worried for months about winning Ohio's white working-class voters, including those who had been with Sen. Hillary Clinton in the primary. Obama's ability to be competitive with that group is why he is ahead. He's only losing one in five Clinton voters and is within two points of Sen. McCain among whites without college degrees. That's a recipe for Obama success," Brown said.
Associated Press GFK
Date: 10/22-26
Ohio
Added: 10/29/08
LA Times Bloomberg
Date: 10/25-27
Ohio
Added: 10/28/08
Quote: Voters in the battleground state of Ohio have swung toward the blue end of the spectrum in this presidential election, and are choosing their candidate on the basis of domestic issues and the desire for change in Washington, according to the latest Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg survey. The presidential candidate picked as best to lead the country through troubled economic times and bring change was Barack Obama. The survey also found that early voters in Ohio have cast their ballots overwhelmingly for the Democratic candidate and among all who have already voted or are likely to do so, he is in position to win Ohio�s 20 electoral votes if the election were held today, as he leads Republican candidate John McCain among likely voters by nine points and by seven points among all registered voters, a finding just outside the poll�s margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points for likely voters and plus or minus three for all registered. The Economy and The Election in a Swing State Ohio had already been hit hard by economic changes over the last decades, struggling to adapt as manufacturing jobs have left the Rust Belt and moved overseas. The decline in the auto and steel industries haven�t helped. Last August, Forbes Magazine published a top 10 list of dying American cities, based on sluggish growth, declining populations, falling real estate values and high unemployment rates, and included four Ohio cities on that list. While manufacturing jobs are slowly being replaced by information and service sector jobs many areas in Ohio are still struggling with high unemployment and declining populations. So it is not surprising that the survey found voters in the state, even more so than voters nationwide, unhappy about the direction the country is going and unhappy with the policies of president George W. Bush.
Survey USA
Date: 10/26-27
Ohio
Added: 10/28/08
Quote: Ohio's Early Voters Give Obama A Running Head Start in Buckeye State: John McCain and Barack Obama are tied at 47% each in Ohio, among voters who have not yet cast a ballot, but who tell SurveyUSA they are certain to do so on or before election day. But, among those in Ohio who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Barack Obama leads by 17 points. When the two populations are combined, the data is as here reported: Obama 49%, McCain 45%. Research sponsored by WCMH-TV Columbus, WKYC-TV Cleveland and WHIO-TV Dayton. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released two weeks ago, Obama is down 1 point; McCain is flat. Democrat Richard Cordray continues to lead Republican Mike Crites in the race for Ohio Attorney General; Cordray defeats Crites by 13 points today, down slightly from a 16-point advantage two weeks ago. Independent Robert Owens takes 8% of the vote today; 9% of voters are undecided in this contest. Ballot Issue 5, concerning payday lending, could go either way: 32% of Ohio voters say they are certain to vote "Yes" on the measure, 43% certain to vote "No," but with 25% of voters not yet certain, any outcome is possible. Among those who have already voted, "Yes" leads "No" by 10 points. Ballot Issue 6, which would allow the construction of a casino in Clinton County, trails: 40% of voters say they are certain to vote "Yes" on 6, 54% are certain to vote "No." Among those who have already voted, the measure is defeated even more decisively.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 10/26
Ohio
Added: 10/28/08
Quote: Barack Obama now leads John McCain 49% to 45% in Ohio, according to the newest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state, taken Sunday night. It�s the widest lead in the race for either candidate since McCain had a four-point advantage five weeks ago. Last week, McCain was ahead by two points, 49% to 47%. The week before that, it was Obama up by two--his first lead in Ohio since tracking of the race began in February. For the four weeks prior to the new survey, the two candidates have been within two points of each other or closer, and neither has topped 49% support or fallen below 47%. Four percent (4%) of Ohio voters are still undecided, and one percent (1%) support Libertarian candidate Bob Barr. Ten percent (10%) of Obama voters say they still may change their minds before Election Day and 9% of McCain supporters say the same. Of those who have already voted, 62% say they support Obama, 37% McCain. Ohio, beginning with this election, loosened its standards for absentee ballots and allowed voters to cast them beginning September 30.
Reuters Zogby
Date: 10/23-26
Ohio
Added: 10/27/08
Quote: A 16-point lead among Independents fuels Obama's lead in this critical state. He also has a small edge with both men and women, and is ahead among every age group. McCain leads by seven with white voters, but every African-American respondent is voting for Obama.
Ohio Newspaper Poll
Date: 10/18-22
Ohio
Added: 10/25/08
Strategic Vision
Date: 10/20-22
Ohio
Added: 10/24/08
Quote: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama? Favorable 49% Unfavorable 41% Undecided 10% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joseph Biden? Favorable 46% Unfavorable 42% Undecided 12% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John McCain? Favorable 48% Unfavorable 42% Undecided 10% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin? Favorable 49% Unfavorable 39% Undecided 12% Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the economy, Barack Obama or John McCain? Barack Obama 52% John McCain 40% Undecided 8% Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the war in Iraq, Barack Obama or John McCain? John McCain 48% Barack Obama 40% Undecided 12%
Insider Advantage for Politico
Date: 10/22
Ohio
Added: 10/24/08
Quote: In theory, McCain could make up for a loss in Ohio by picking up Pennsylvania, but it would be a hard blow to lose a state with 20 electoral votes that President Bush won twice. The latest wave of polls from Ohio have shown Obama building a substantial lead there, with a Thursday Quinnipiac University survey giving him a 14-point lead, a Big Ten poll released the same day showing him ahead by 12 points and a CNN/TIME magazine poll giving the Democrat a tighter, 4-point lead. Previous Politico/InsiderAdvantage polling has shown Obama even with or ahead of McCain in a crucial set of battleground counties, including Hillsborough; Franklin; Jefferson County, Co.; St. Louis County, Mo.; Washoe County, Nev.; Wake County, N.C.; Bucks County, Pa. and Prince William County, Va. The Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll of Florida�s Hillsborough County, conducted Oct. 22, tested 295 voters with a margin of error of plus or minus six percentage points. In the statewide poll of Florida, also conducted Oct. 22, there were 562 respondents with a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points. The poll of Ohio�s Franklin County, conducted Oct. 22, had 432 respondents for a margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points. The Ohio statewide poll, also conducted Oct. 22, tested 408 voters with a five-point margin of error.
Quinnipiac University
Date: 10/16-21
Ohio
Added: 10/23/08
Big10 Battleground
Date: 10/19-22
Ohio
Added: 10/23/08
CNN Time
Date: 10/19-21
Ohio
Added: 10/23/08
Rasmussen Reports for FOX News
Date: 10/19
Ohio
Added: 10/20/00
Quote: Both men and women in Ohio are now fairly evenly divided between the two candidates. Obama earns 67% of the vote from non-whites, while McCain has 53% of the white vote. McCain has the support of 87% of Ohio Republicans and 13% of Democrats. Eighty-four percent (84%) of Democrats and 10% of GOP voters back Obama. Unaffiliated voters favor McCain by four points. Last week at this time, the Democrat had a seven-point edge among unaffiliateds. In that earlier survey, 77% of voters said they were certain of whom they will vote for, while 23% said there was still a chance they might change their minds. Now 82% say they are certain of their vote. Of those who�ve made up their minds, 86% support McCain, 84% Obama. Of the 18% who still may change, 14% support McCain at this point, while 16% prefer Obama.
Suffolk University
Date: 10/16-19
Ohio
Added: 10/20/08
NBC Mason Dixon
Date: 10/16-17
Ohio
Added: 10/19/08
Quote: Ohio -- the state that decided the last election -- McCain has a slim one-point edge over Obama, 46%-45%.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 10/14
Ohio
Added: 10/16/08
Quote: But only 53% of Ohio voters are now Very Confident that the votes will be properly counted and the right candidate declared the victor. Another 34% are Somewhat Confident in the outcome. Forty-five (45%) say people who shouldn�t be allowed to vote are likely to vote on Election Day. Just 28% say it�s more likely that some who are eligible will be denied the chance to vote. Late Wednesday, Ohio's attorney general filed an emergency appeal with the U.S. Supreme Court in hopes of blocking a lower court ruling that could prevent thousands of Ohio voters from voting on Election Day. Numerous lawsuits over voter eligibility are already at play in Ohio, where over 600,000 new voters have registered this year. Republicans question the legitimacy of voters registered by the liberal activist group ACORN, now under investigation in Ohio, Nevada and other states. Democrats say Republicans are just trying to eliminate and discourage voters in states where the party's candidates are at risk. Eighty percent (80%) of Ohio voters believe people who want to vote should be required to show a driver�s license prior to casting a ballot.
Survey USA
Date: 10/12-13
Ohio
Added: 10/14/08
Quote: See-Saw In Ohio -- Teeter-Totter Tips To Obama 21 Days Till Votes Are Counted: In an election for President of the United States in Ohio today, 10/14/08, Barack Obama captures Ohio's 20 electoral votes, according to SurveyUSA's latest poll conducted for WCMH-TV Columbus, WKYC-TV Cleveland, and WHIO-TV Dayton. Interactive tracking graphs, a SurveyUSA exclusive, trace a teeter-totter that tipped in John McCain's favor when SurveyUSA first polled Ohio mid-September, achieved equilibrium at the end of September, and now tips to Obama mid-October. The numbers: Obama 50%, McCain 45%. A month ago, McCain led, on the strength of a 16-point advantage among white voters. 14 of those 16 points have disappeared, and McCain now leads among whites by 2, effectively even with Obama. There is important movement in Columbus, where Obama now leads, among wealthier Ohio voters, where Obama has erased McCain's advantage, among voters focused on the economy, where Obama has doubled his advantage, and among the less-well educated, where McCain now needs help. Among regular church goers, a group McCain must carry decisively, his 19-point advantage is now 7. Among Moderates, McCain had trailed by 9, now by 23. Among voters older than Obama but younger than McCain, another tipping point.
Rasmussen Reports for FOX News
Date: 10/12
Ohio
Added: 10/14/08
Quote: In Ohio, McCain now has a three-point advantage on the �trust� question, down from 13 points on September 7. In Florida, McCain�s advantage is now just a single point�48% to 47%--down from a 50% to 44% edge in the first survey of this series.
Marist Poll
Date: 10/5-8
Ohio
Added: 10/13/08
Quote: Obama Has a Narrow Lead Over McCain in the Buckeye State: The presidential race in Ohio is no longer a statistical dead heat. Among registered voters, Senator Barack Obama now outpaces Senator John McCain 48% to 40%. A Marist Poll conducted just last month had McCain and Obama each with the support of 44% of registered voters. Among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Obama has 49% compared with 45% for McCain. Support for the candidates split along party lines. 85% of likely Republican voters report they back John McCain. A similar proportion of likely Democrats -- 89% -- are behind their party�s candidate. Independent voters are divided. 44% say they back Obama while 47% report being for McCain. 6% of these key voters have not made up their minds. Majority of Voters Have Favorable Images of both Barack Obama and John McCain�Obama Viewed Positively by More: A majority of voters in Ohio hold positive perceptions of Barack Obama and John McCain. Six in ten registered voters think well of Obama while 54% view McCain favorably. In a similar Marist Poll conducted in September, Obama received a positive score of 54% from the Ohio electorate -- 6 percentage points fewer than he currently garners. McCain�s favorable image among Ohio�s voters remains relatively unchanged since last month when 56% of the electorate gave him a favorable rating. However, 44% of voters see him unfavorably now compared with 38% who held this view in September.
University of Cincinnati Institute Ohio Newspaper Poll
Date: 10/4-8
Ohio
Added: 10/11/08
Quote: �As Americans are watching the saga unfold on Wall Street, Ohioans are seeing the effects on their investments and in their wallets,� said Kevin Riley, Editor-in-Chief, Cox Ohio Publishing; editor of the Dayton Daily News and one of the organizers of the statewide effort by the eight Ohio daily newspapers. �It is essential for these candidates to articulate to Ohioans how they plan to make a positive impact to turn around our economy.� The Ohio Newspaper Poll also asked Ohio likely voters how worried they are about having a secure retirement; 66 percent of the respondents said they are worried about their retirement. When taking a look at past and future generations, 62 percent of 18 to 29 year olds say their parents� generation was better off than the current generation of working adults. When all of the age groups were asked if today�s children will be better or worse off, the majority, 54 percent, said today�s children will be worse off than the current generation of working adults. �Because Ohio is seen as a bellwether state, Ohio reflects how engaged voters are to the issues during this election,� said Eric Rademacher, Interim Co-Director for the University of Cincinnati Institute for Policy Research. �From The Ohio Newspaper Poll we know the economy and the current financial crisis are key issues that resonate with many Ohioans�as with Americans.� Ohio likely voters were also asked about their views on the Social Security system and free trade agreements like NAFTA. Again, the majority of voters tended to take a negative view. Nearly 65 percent said our Social Security system has �major problems,� and 55 percent said free trade agreements hurt Ohio�s economy.
Insider Advantage
Date: 10/9
Ohio
Added: 10/10/08
Strategic Vision
Date: 10/6-8
Ohio
Added: 10/10/08
Quote: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama? Favorable 51% Unfavorable 38% Undecided 11% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joseph Biden? Favorable 47% Unfavorable 39% Undecided 14% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John McCain? Favorable 47% Unfavorable 41% Undecided 12% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin? Favorable 51% Unfavorable 36% Undecided 13% Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the economy, Barack Obama or John McCain? Barack Obama 56% John McCain 34% Undecided 10% Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the war in Iraq, Barack Obama or John McCain? John McCain 49% Barack Obama 42% Undecided 9% Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's overall job performance? Approve 21% Disapprove 74% Undecided 5% Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the economy? Approve 16% Disapprove 77% Undecided 7%
American Research Group
Date: 10/4-7
Ohio
Added: 10/9/08
Public Policy Polling
Date: 10/4-5
Ohio
Added: 10/7/08
Quote: The economy is driving Obama�s renewed success in the state. 61% of Ohio voters list it as their top concern, and within that group Obama has a 58-34 advantage. By comparison just 36% of Ohioans listed it as their top issue in a similar survey conducted in January. Obama has made up a lot of ground with white voters over the last month, pulling to within a 49-43 margin after trailing 55-37 in a previous survey. �The polls are getting worse and worse for John McCain,� said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. �There is virtually no way he can win the Presidency without Ohio but he is now trailing outside the margin of error here in several polls, and time is running away from him with the election less than a month away.� Joe Biden�s popularity with Ohio voters is on the rise following last week�s Vice Presidential debate, while Sarah Palin�s has fallen. Soon after the Republican convention 30% of respondents in our poll said the selection of Joe Biden made them more likely to vote for Barack Obama while 32% said it made them less likely to do so. Now 40% say Biden makes them more favorable to Obama while just 27% say he makes them less so. Palin has gone from getting positive marks from 43% of Ohioans and negatives one from 36% to being viewed negatively by 43% of voters and positively by just 40%.
CNN/TIME
Date: 10/3-6
Ohio
Added: 10/7/08
Quote: McCain currently trails Obama by three points in Ohio; 50 percent of likely voters favor Obama, while 47 percent favor McCain. No Republican has won the White House without carrying the state. �McCain has a six-point lead in the Cincinnati area,� said Holland. �But a GOP candidate normally needs to do better than that in southwestern Ohio in order to win the state. And overall, Obama actually has a two-point edge among suburban communities across the state.�
ABC News Washington Post
Date: 10/3-5
Ohio
Added: 10/6/08
Quote: The contours of the race are telling. Obama leads by a wide margin in Cuyahoga County, the heavily Democratic Cleveland metropolis. But perhaps more critical is his 17-point advantage in the state�s northeast, including the ailing industrial cities of Akron, Canton and Youngstown � a keystone for Democrats in statewide races. John Kerry managed only a closer, 52-47 split with George W. Bush in this region in 2004, not enough to win the state, and thus the presidency. The northeast isn�t the only region of interest. In the center and rural southeast of the state, generally Republican but including more-Democratic Columbus, it�s a 6-point race, 51-45 percent Obama-McCain � a region Bush won by 8 points four years ago. There are sharp divisions among groups, again with comparisons to 2004 instructive. While Obama�s losing white voters by 7 points, Kerry lost them by 12. While Kerry won 84 percent of Ohio�s black voters, Obama�s winning them essentially unanimously � 98 percent. Bush won married women by 20 points in 2004; they�re dividing about evenly now (and are substantially more worried than their husbands about the family�s finances). And while young voters favored Kerry by a 14-point margin, they�re even more of a mainstay for Obama; he holds a 2-1 lead among likely voters under 30, compared with a dead heat among those 30 and older. Relying on young voters is a risk for Obama (as it was for Kerry) given their uncertain turnout. What�s essential, then, is his ability to battle McCain to a standstill among over- 30s, a group Kerry lost by 7 points. And that has much to do with the economy.
Rasmussen Reports for FOX News
Date: 10/5
Ohio
Added: 10/6/08
Quote: Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Ohio voters say they are certain of the candidate they are voting for. But 22% say they may change their minds, including 29% of Catholic voters and 26% of those ages 18-39. Ninety percent (90%) of Ohio Republicans back McCain while Obama has the support of 85% of Democratic voters. Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided. The GOP presidential candidate leads by 12 points among men and trails by 10 among women voters. Fifty-five percent (55%) view McCain favorably, 43% unfavorably. Obama has 53% favorables and 45% unfavorables.
This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Ohio polls.
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