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Quinnipiac University
Date: 10/27-11/2
Pennsylvania
Added: 11/3/08
Quote: Obama leads 55 - 39 percent with women, and 49 - 45 percent with men. White voters split 47 - 47 percent, while black voters back Obama 95 - 1 percent. McCain leads 67 - 27 percent among evangelical Christians while Obama leads 51 - 46 percent among Catholics. Independent voters back the Democrat 49 - 42 percent. Obama gets a 58 - 35 percent favorability, compared to McCain's 53 - 42 percent. Palin's favorability is a split 43 - 44 percent, while Biden gets 52 - 32 percent. The economy is the most important issue, 55 percent of Pennsylvania voters say, and Obama will be more effective than McCain working with Congress, voters say 53 - 40 percent. Criticism of McCain's ties to Bush is more harmful than criticism of his selection of Palin, voters say 58 - 27 percent, with 10 percent who say neither is harmful. Voters split 39 - 40 percent on whether the "too liberal" tag hurts Obama more than the "too inexperienced" line, with 15 percent who say neither. "In the end, Sen. John McCain's troops in Central Pennsylvania, led by veterans, disaffected Sen. Hillary Clinton supporters and God and gun clingers, will be swept over by a wave of young black and urban new voters, giving Sen. Barack Obama the Keystone State," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Gov. Ed Rendell will bring out all the king's horses and all the king's men and women to insure a huge turnout that will provide not only an Obama victory, but maybe a job for the term- limited Governor in Washington next year."
Survey USA
Date: 10/30
Pennsylvania
Added: 11/2/08
Quote: In Pennsylvania, Obama Sees McCain Hi-Beams in His Rear-View Mirror: Barack Obama 51%, John McCain 44%, in Pennsylvania interviewing through Friday night 10/31/08. The candidates are tied among white voters, tied among those without a college degree. The situation is volatile. SurveyUSA will continue to collect data for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre, WJAC-TV Johnstown, and WHTM-TV Harrisburg.
American Research Group
Date: 10/29-31
Pennsylvania
Added: 11/1/08
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 10/30/08
Pennsylvania
Added: 11/1/08
Quote: Democratic nominee John Kerry narrowly won Pennsylvania four years ago and both candidates have spent a lot of time here this past week. The Keystone State is the only state won by Kerry four years ago that is at all competitive in the final days of Election 2008. Although McCain is gaining in the state, this is the fourth consecutive poll to show Obama attracting more than 50% of the vote. McCain is now viewed favorably by 55% of Pennsylvania voters, Obama by 54%. Those figures reflect a five-point improvement for McCain from the beginning of the month and a five-point decline for Obama. Still, 51% of Pennsylvania voters say they trust Obama more than McCain when it comes to the economy. Forty-six percent (46%) hold the opposite view and trust McCain more. Forty-four percent (44%) rate economic issues as most important in this campaign. Nationally, the Rasmussen Consumer Index showed consumer and investor confidence falling to record lows in mid-October before improving slightly over the past two weeks. Just 20% view national security issues as the highest priority in this election. McCain has a nine-point advantage when it comes to voter trust on national security issues.
Strategic Vision
Date: 10/27-29
Pennsylvania
Added: 10/31/08
Quote: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama? Favorable 49% Unfavorable 41% Undecided 10% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joseph Biden? Favorable 47% Unfavorable 39% Undecided 14% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John McCain? Favorable 49% Unfavorable 40% Undecided 11% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin? Favorable 48% Unfavorable 40% Undecided 12% Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the economy, Barack Obama or John McCain? Barack Obama 48% John McCain 44% Undecided 8% Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the war in Iraq, Barack Obama or John McCain? John McCain 49% Barack Obama 40% Undecided 11% Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's overall job performance? Approve 13% Disapprove 77% Undecided 10% Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the economy? Approve 10% Disapprove 79% Undecided 11% Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq? Approve 38% Disapprove 55% Undecided 7%
Mason Dixon for NBC
Date: 10/27-28
Pennsylvania
Added: 10/30/08
CNN TIME
Date: 10/23-28
Pennsylvania
Added: 10/30/08
Marist College
Date: 10/26-27
Pennsylvania
Added: 10/29/08
Quote: Barack Obama Maintains Wide Lead in Pennsylvania�Outpaces McCain by 13 Percentage Points: Senator Barack Obama has a strong lead in the contest for Pennsylvania�s 21 electoral votes. Among registered voters in the state, Obama is ahead with 52% to McCain�s 39%. Obama has gained ground since a Marist Poll conducted earlier this month when he was ahead by 9 percentage points. The gap among registered voters now stands at 13 percentage points. Among likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Obama has a comparable 14 percentage point advantage. Here, Obama sprints past McCain -- 55% to 41% -- with just 4% of voters reporting they have yet to make up their minds. In Marist�s earlier poll, Obama led McCain by 12 percentage points among likely voters. Currently, Obama has more support among Democrats than McCain has among Republicans. 91% of Democrats say they support their party�s candidate while 83% of Republicans say they are backing McCain. Independents likely to vote on Election Day favor Obama by more than 2-to-1.
Franklin Marshall
Date: 10/21-26
Pennsylvania
Added: 10/29/08
Quote: "The presidential race in this state didn't start to stabilize until about three weeks ago," poll director G. Terry Madonna said. McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, are trying to reverse those gains. They spent much of the past two days campaigning in Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. Obama campaigned in Pittsburgh on Monday and in Eastern Pennsylvania on Tuesday. In Hershey, McCain said "it's wonderful to fool the pundits" and vowed to pull off an upset. "I'm not afraid of the fight, I'm ready for it," said McCain, continuing his sharp assault against Obama during a raucous rally. "Nothing is inevitable, we never give up," McCain said. "Let's go win this election and get this country moving again." From Pennsylvania, McCain was heading to North Carolina; Obama, to Virginia. Madonna believes the race in Pennsylvania has become stable, with Obama holding a double-digit lead. "In important aspects of the poll, he seems well-positioned to carry the state unless Sen. McCain has a major breakthrough moment," Madonna said. "Obama has a huge proportion of Democrats. He has a huge lead among women and substantial leads in Philadelphia and Allegheny County."
Quinnipiac University
Date: 10/22-26
Pennsylvania
Added: 10/29/08
Quote: Obama leads 59 - 35 percent with women, while men back McCain by a narrow 49 - 46 percent. White voters split with 48 percent for Obama and 47 percent for McCain. Black voters back Obama 95 - 2 percent. He also leads 61 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 51 - 43 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old and 51 - 42 percent among voters over 55. Independent voters back the Democrat 54 - 35 percent. Obama gets a 59 - 33 percent favorability, compared to McCain's 50 - 43 percent. Palin's favorability is a negative 38 - 43 percent, while Biden gets 49 - 29 percent. The economy is the most important issue, 54 percent of Pennsylvania voters say. "Pennsylvania is consistently Obama blue down the home stretch, even with white voters only narrowly in his corner. Sen. Barack Obama's big lead over Sen. John McCain in the critical southeast Philadelphia suburbs - the key to the Keystone State in recent elections - should seal up Pennsylvania for Obama," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Associated Press GFK
Date: 10/22-26
Pennsylvania
Added: 10/29/08
Insider Advantage for Politico
Date: 10/26
Pennsylvania
Added: 10/28/08
Quote: InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery suggested that McCain's slight improvement indicated that the race in Pennsylvania was tightening, though perhaps not quickly enough to make a decisive difference. "These polls are showing us that there's either a little bit of tightening or stagnation" in Obama's numbers, Towery said. "But there's nothing that causes me to believe, based on this polling, that these battleground states are shifting significantly � or, at least, fast enough for McCain to catch up." In Bucks County, presidential preferences broke down along generational and gender lines. While Obama posted a solid 52 percent to 34 percent lead among voters aged 18 to 29 and led McCain among middle-aged voters, McCain posted an equally solid 51 percent to 35 percent lead among voters aged 65 and above. Following a familiar pattern, women preferred Obama over McCain, 55 percent to 34 percent; men favored McCain by 51 percent to 39 percent. In Politico's previous Bucks County poll, female voters were more evenly split, suggesting that as the election draws closer, some voting groups may be reverting to predictable patterns of behavior. Women also powered Obama's statewide lead, with the Democratic nominee winning their votes by a margin of 56 percent to 37 percent. The two candidates were effectively tied among men, with McCain winning 47 percent of male votes to Obama's 46 percent. In the most recent Bucks County poll, Obama had a 42 percent to 37 percent edge among independent voters. Statewide, he carried that all-important group by a yawning 56 percent to 25 percent margin.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 10/27
Pennsylvania
Added: 10/28/08
Quote: Not coincidentally, Obama�s current lead is matched by a seven-point advantage on the question of which candidate is trusted more on the economy. However, while McCain has closed the gap, virtually all the movement comes from an increase in his support rather than a loss of support for Obama. This is the third straight poll showing Obama�s support at or above the 50% level. Still, the tightening poll results help explain why the Obama campaign has been paying so much attention to the Keystone State this week. Obama and Biden are both campaigning there along with major campaign surrogates. Obama is now viewed favorably by 56% of Pennsylvania voters, down three points from earlier in the month. McCain�s favorability ratings have been moving in the opposite direction, up four points to 54%.
Temple University
Date: 10/20-26
Pennsylvania
Added: 10/27/08
Quote: As the race reaches the home stretch, the campaigns allocate more of their resources to making sure their supporters reach the polls on Election Day. The McCain campaign enjoys a distinct advantage with regard to turnout: McCain�s supporters have had more electoral experience than Obama�s. By 65 percent to 51 percent, for example, McCain voters are more likely than Obama voters to say they follow government and public affairs �most of the time, whether there�s an election going on or not.� McCain voters are also more likely to say they always or nearly always vote and they have voted in a presidential or congressional election before. In part, these differences reflect the fact that McCain voters are older and wealthier, on average, than Obama supporters. The differences are important because engagement with politics and experience with elections facilitate voting.
Strategic Vision
Date: 10/20-22
Pennsylvania
Added: 10/24/08
Quote: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama? Favorable 48% Unfavorable 39% Undecided 13% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joseph Biden? Favorable 47% Unfavorable 37% Undecided 16% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John McCain? Favorable 48% Unfavorable 39% Undecided 13% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin? Favorable 49% Unfavorable 38% Undecided 13% Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the economy, Barack Obama or John McCain? Barack Obama 51% John McCain 42% Undecided 7% Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the war in Iraq, Barack Obama or John McCain? John McCain 48% Barack Obama 40% Undecided 12%
National Journal Financial Dynamics
Date: 10/16-20
Pennsylvania
Added: 10/24/08
Quote: Obama leads among Keystone State independents, and he is running about even among its whites and suburbanites. For McCain, that standoff is insufficient to offset Obama's huge lead among African-Americans. And although McCain is attracting about one-seventh of Pennsylvania Democrats -- many of them the blue-collar whites who resisted Obama during the Democratic primary last spring -- Obama is attracting about an equal share of Republicans, the survey found.
Survey USA
Date: 10/21-22
Pennsylvania
Added: 10/24/08
Quote: Whites in PA Drift Slightly Back to McCain; Meaningful? Too Soon To Say: In an election for President of the United States in Pennsylvania today, 10/23/08, twelve days until votes are counted, the contest tightens, but Democrat Barack Obama still defeats Republican John McCain 53% to 41%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WNEP-TV Scranton, WHTM-TV Harrisburg, and WJAC-TV Johnstown. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 9 days ago, McCain is up 1, Obama is down 2. There is movement to McCain among white voters, where McCain had been down 7, today is down 3.
Quinnipiac University
Date: 10/16-21
Pennsylvania
Added: 10/23/08
Big10 Battleground
Date: 10/19-22
Pennsylvania
Added: 10/23/08
Susquehanna
Date: 10/16-18
Pennsylvania
Added: 10/20/08
Quote: "It will be very difficult for McCain to close that gap enough to win," even though the Arizona Republican is faring slightly better than Obama among the remaining undecided voters, Lee said. Obama's lead in the vote-rich counties around Philadelphia is twice as large as John Kerry's was when he won the state in 2004, Lee said. President Bush won 19 percent of the vote in Philadelphia in 2004, while McCain is polling at 11 percent there. "This is where the race is won," Lee said. McCain's best chance at winning might lie in Western Pennsylvania. McCain plans to return to the area Tuesday for the first time since August, with an afternoon rally at Robert Morris University in Moon. McCain leads Obama in most of Western Pennsylvania, excluding Allegheny County, where Obama leads by 8 points. "If McCain can really close the math in Allegheny County and win the rest of the Pittsburgh media market by an even bigger margin than Bush won four years ago, I think McCain has a chance to catch Obama. I just don't think that's likely to happen," Lee said. Voters are making up their minds, the poll shows. Forty-two percent say they'll definitely vote for Obama, and 35 percent say the same about McCain. That's a 5-point increase for both candidates. The number of undecided voters fell from 10 percent to 7 percent -- a 3-point drop that mirrors the increase in Obama's overall lead.
Muhlenberg College Morning Call
Date: 10/14-18
Pennsylvania
Added: 10/20/08
Survey USA
Date: 10/11-13
Pennsylvania
Added: 10/14/08
Quote: PA Men Tiptoe Back To McCain, But PA Women Want None Of It -- Obama Maintains Double-Digit Keystone Advantage: In an election for President of the United States in the pivotal battleground state of Pennsylvania, the Columbus Day weekend brings zero good news for Republican John McCain, who today trails Democrat Barack Obama by same 15 points that he did one week ago, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WNEP-TV Scranton, WHTM-TV Harrisburg, and WJAC-TV Johnstown. Today, Obama 55%, McCain 40%, identical to a SurveyUSA tracking poll released 7 days ago. Week-on-week, McCain made slight inroads among men, where he cut into Obama's lead, but that is offset by ground McCain lost among women. Most remarkable: when interviewing began one week ago for the 10/07/08 SurveyUSA poll, the Dow Jones Average was at 10,325. When interviewing began for the 10/14/08 poll, the Dow Jones Average was at 8,451. Over 7 days in which the Dow lost 1,874 points, neither Barack Obama nor John McCain gained a point, nor lost a point, in SurveyUSA polling in Pennsylvania. Obama maintains an overwhelming advantage in Southeast PA, which includes Philadelphia. Obama maintains a slight advantage in Northeast PA, which includes Scranton. The contest remains tied in Southwest PA, which includes Pittsburgh, and in West Central PA, which includes Johnstown. McCain continues to lead in South Central PA, which includes Harrisburg.
Marist Poll
Date: 10/5-8
Pennsylvania
Added: 10/13/08
Quote: Race Opens Up in Pennsylvania�Obama Pulls Ahead by 9 Percentage Points Among Registered Voters�Has Double-Digit Lead Among Likely Voters: The once tight presidential race in Pennsylvania is now tipping in Senator Barack Obama�s favor. He leads Senator John McCain among the state�s registered voters 49% to 40%. Among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Obama is in front of McCain by 12 percentage points -- 53% to 41%. In a Marist Poll released less than one month ago, Obama had the support of 45% of Pennsylvania�s registered voters compared with 42% for McCain. Among the state�s likely voters, Obama had 49% to 44% for McCain in the previous poll. Pennsylvania�s likely voters currently divide along party lines. 88% of Democrats and 83% of Republicans likely to vote on Election Day now support their party�s candidate. A majority of Independents -- 53% -- favor Obama compared with 34% for McCain. 12% of these voters are still undecided. Obama Receives Higher Marks When It Comes to Favorability: Although both presidential candidates are viewed positively by a majority of the Pennsylvania electorate, more registered voters in the state have a favorable impression of Barack Obama than John McCain. 65% think well of Obama; 55% view McCain positively. However, McCain�s negative rating has increased from 37% to 43% during the past 3 weeks. Obama�s positive rating, on the other hand, has increased 5 percentage points during that same time period.
Survey USA
Date: 10/5-6
Pennsylvania
Added: 10/7/08
Quote: Pennsylvania Whites Switch Horses, and Suddenly Obama is 15 Furlongs Ahead: In an election for President of the United States in Pennsylvania today, 10/07/08, four weeks to the vote, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 55% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WNEP-TV Scranton, WHTM-TV Harrisburg, and WJAC-TV Johnstown. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released twelve days ago, Obama is up 5 points; McCain is down 4. Among white voters, who make-up 87% of PA's electorate, Obama had trailed by 3, now leads by 4 -- a 7-point swing to the Democrat, which, when combined with Obama's now 24:1 advantage among black voters, puts Obama in prime position to capture the 21 Keystone Electoral Votes as the two candidates head for home. Obama today leads among PA men and women, young and old, rich and poor, more educated and less educated. McCain leads among Republicans, conservatives, pro-life voters, and gun owners. 21% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 16% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain. Independents break 2:1 for Obama. Obama leads 2:1 in the Philadelphia area, leads by 10 points in the Scranton area, and nominally in the Pittsburgh area. McCain leads by double digits in Harrisburg and ties Obama in Johnstown.
Rasmussen Reports
Date: 10/6
Pennsylvania
Added: 10/7/08
Quote: Just seven percent (7%) of Pennsylvania voters rate the economy as good or excellent while 62% say poor. Only three percent (3%) say economic conditions are getting better while 82% say they are getting worse. Forty-four percent (44%) of Keystone State voters say the economy is the most important issue of Election 2008, and 53% trust Obama more than McCain on this issue. Only 39% trust McCain more. It is no coincidence that the Obama�s advantage on economic issues nearly matches his overall lead in the state. Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters in Pennsylvania are investors who have been directly impacted by tumbling stock prices.
This is a monthly synopsis of many more 2008 Pennsylvania polls.
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