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Tight 2009 Governor Race in Virginia Expected


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Tags: Congress, Virginia Governor Polls

From Rasmussen Reports

  • McConnell (R) 37%, Moran 41%. McConnell (R) 39%, Deeds 39%. McConnell (R) 41%, McAuliffe 36%.
  • More Virginians willing to pay higher taxes to fund health care for seniors.
  • But fewer Virginians willing to pay higher taxes for law enforcement, crime prevention, or funding universities.

» Commentary by Kris Lazaro (registered Democrat)

African American turnout will be the key. They came out for Barack Obama but will they come out in this Governor election?

Virginia's current governor, Tim Kaine, the second Democratic governor in a row, is prohibited by law from seeking a second term. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Virginia voters say Kaine is doing a good or excellent job as governor, even as he wrestles with a $2.5 billion deficit, and just 15% rated his performance as poor. In a survey in mid-October, Kaine was given good or excellent marks by 53%, while 18% gave him a grade of poor.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of Virginia voters have a favorable opinion of McDonnell, with 18% saying their view of him is very favorable. He is viewed unfavorably by 19%, with 32% not knowing enough about him to have an opinion one way or the other.

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Republican voters have a favorable view of McDonnell, with 29% Very Favorable. Just eight percent (8%) have an unfavorable view of their party's prospective candidate, with 15% not sure.

Deeds is regarded favorably by 37% of Virginia voters and unfavorably by 24%. Thirty-eight percent (38%) have no opinion of him.

For Moran, his favorables are 33%, his unfavorables 31%, with 36% having no opinion.

McAuliffe, who served as chairman of the Democratic National Committee from 2001 to 2005, is seen favorably by 36% and unfavorably by 34%, with only 30% undecided about him.

All three Democrats are viewed Very favorably by 11% of Virginia voters.

Deeds is the most popular among Democratic voters, with 55% viewing him favorably, including 23% who are Very Favorable. But McAuliffe is a close second, with 52% favorability, including 20% who are Very Favorable. Moran is seen favorably by 48% of Democrats, 15% of whom regard him Very favorably.

African-American voters were critical to Obama's success in Virginia, and their turnout appears to be critical for whichever candidate becomes the Democratic nominee. In every match-up, black voters support the Democrat more by 28 to 41 points.

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